杠杆点评估及设计空间抗差

本分析了杠杆点的几何含义和统计特征,从杠杆点的保差性,矩阵的摄动和参数估值可靠性的观点出发讨论了杠杆点的不利和有利的两个方面,提出了一个全面的设计空间抗差方案。     

基于遥感影像大数据、卷积神经网络的福建省有效致灾雷电分布模型及应用

为了研究福建省有效致灾雷电的分布情况，基于福建省2004—2012年闪电定位数据及雷击人员伤亡数据、福建省L17级谷歌遥感影像瓦片，引入卷积神经网络模型对遥感影像所在区域是否属于人员活动的属性进行建模、训练和预测，得到福建省人员活动属性的格点产品，结合福建省历史雷电数据对有效致灾的雷电分布情况进行了分析，结果表明：①设计的遥感影像+CNN识别模型具有一定的可行性和准确率，通过显著性水平为0.01的假设检验；②福建省有63.55%的格点为无人员活动区域；③平均有45.36%的闪电落在无人员活动的区域，因地制宜地对其他致灾闪电进行预警是提高应急减灾服务效果的可行途径；④有效致灾雷电密度与历史雷击人员伤亡数据的相关性远大于常规雷电密度与历史雷击人员伤亡数据的相关性，有效致灾雷电分布在表征雷电灾害上比常规雷电分布更具有指示意义。     

基于FPN Res-Unet的高分辨率遥感影像建筑物变化检测

针对城市土地资源变化检测工作繁杂、工作量大、自动化程度低等问题，本文提出一种基于深度学习模型的高分辨率遥感影像建筑物变化检测方法，将语义分割的思想引入到遥感变化检测。基于残差结构特征较卷积层提取性能更优和特征金字塔网络多尺度预测的特点，将残差结构和特征金字塔网络融合到Unet模型中，建立FPN Res-Unet模型。该模型以Unet为基础，引入ResNet18的残差结构作为编码路径特征提取层，在每次卷积后使用边界填充，使得输入图像和输出图像尺寸一致；在解码路径每级上采样过程中，拓展支路径将特征金字塔网络融合到模型的网络主干中，将残差结构、Unet及特征金字塔网络的优点相互融合，增强了Unet的特征提取，弥补了语义分割网络对小目标检测的欠缺；在获取深层语义信息的同时关注细节信息，提高建筑物变化检测精度。实验表明，该方法在所用数据集，准确率、召回率、F₁ 3种指标均达到90%以上。     

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而     

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Holocene record of productivity in the NW Iberian continental shelf

A multiproxy approach (textural characteristics, heavy metal concentrations and benthic foraminifera data) was adopted to study the OMEX core KSGX 40, collected at the Galicia Mud Deposit (NW Iberian outer continental shelf) and recording the last ca. 4.8 ka cal BP. Geochemical profiles of Fe, Mn, Zn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Al and Ca show significant temporal variations. Benthic foraminifera productivity proxy suggests that the recorded muddy events were contemporaneous of a higher C_org flux to the marine benthic environment. The higher flux of organic matter, following a long-term intensification of the upwelling and coinciding with a finer sedimentation, led to depressed levels of oxygen beneath the water-sediments interface and to early diagenetic processes of several redox-sensitive elements.     

Engineering geological studies and tunnel support design at Sulakyurt dam site, Turkey

This paper presents the results of engineering geological investigations and tunnel support design studies, carried out at the Sulakyurt dam site, northeast of Ankara, Turkey. The Sulakyurt dam will be used for flow control and water storage for irrigation projects. Studies were carried out both in the field and the laboratory. Field studies include engineering geological mapping, intensive discontinuity surveying, core drilling and sampling for laboratory testing. The diversion tunnel will be driven in rock mass, consisting of granite and diorite. Empirical, analytical and numerical methods were combined for safe tunnel design. Rock mass rating (RMR), Rock mass quality (Q) and Geological strength index (GSI) systems were used for empirical rock mass quality determination, site characterization and support design. The convergence–confinement method was used as analytical method and software called Phase², a 2D finite element program, was utilized as numerical method. According to the results acquired from the empirical, analytical and numerical methods, tunnel stability problems were expected in both granite and diorite rock masses. The support system, suggested by empirical methods, was applied and the performance of suggested support system was evaluated by means of numerical modelling. It was concluded that the suggested support systems were adequate, since after applying the suggested support system to granite and diorite, tunnel deformation and the yielded elements around the tunnel decreased significantly. Thus, it is suggested that for more reliable support design empirical, numerical and analytical methods should be combined.     

Modeling of the classification behavior of the diaphragms used in multi-chamber cement mills

A new approach has been developed for describing the classification that arises at the diaphragm in multi-chamber ball mills. Fourteen industrial scale cement mills have been sampled in this study and after mass balancing, model fits of the equipment were done. Successive mill product predictions for the sampled conditions were achieved, and requirements to build up an optimization capable model are discussed.     

GIS技术支持下的招远市金矿区崩塌遥感调查

在总结前人研究成果的基础上,全面系统地分析了诱发招远市金矿区崩塌的自然和人为因数,然后运用遥感技术对金矿区遥感图像进行处理,提取诱发崩塌的条件因子,聘请有经验的专家对各项诱发因子进行诊断分析,以此作为判断条件,在G IS技术的支持下对诱发崩塌的条件因子进行空间分析,预测出招远金矿区发生崩塌的危害程度,为防治崩塌提供科学依据。预测结果表明,招远金矿区崩塌有进一步发展的可能,其中,高危险区有36820 m2,中易发区有50 610 m2,低易发区有67 200 m2,需要采取有效措施加以防治。