冬小麦夏玉米土壤水分预报及优化灌溉模型

利用土壤水分平衡方程，结合河南省冬小麦和夏玉米的生长规律和1994～2000年冬小麦、夏玉米田实测土壤湿度资料，建立了河南省冬小麦、夏玉米土壤水分预报及优化灌溉的计算机模型。用1998～1999年郑州市麦田实测土壤湿度资料验证该模型模拟结果，未来10、20、30天土壤湿度相对误差分别为-7．3％～7．7％、-8．3％～6．8％、-7．6％～7．7％，表明利用该模型，可以较为准确地预报未来1个月的土壤水分变化，并可根据小麦、玉米不同发育期特点，给出以最高产量和最佳经济效益为目标的灌溉建议。     

A response‐based decoupling criterion for multiply‐supported secondary systems

It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EFG法在土体固结中的应用

EFGM作为一种新的数值计算方法，具有只需节点信息而无段单元的特性，故在解固结方程方面有很大的优势。在计算分析中，此法容易构造固结方程的EFGM刚度矩阵和处理不同边界条件。对单面排水等条件的计算结果表明，EFGM在解决固结变形问题上，精度较高，处理边界准确。     

基于ODBC的地震前兆数据批量卸出与转换程序的实现

介绍了CDBC技术、工作流程及数据传递方式；分析了研制数据卸出与转换程序的关键技术及实现方法；描述了程序的组织结构。通过实例说明了该程序在全国前兆台网中心卸载与转换地震前兆数字化的观测数据中的应用。     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

汾河口傍河水源地激发补给量研究

该文阐述傍河水源地地下水资源构成和补给特性。利用野外试验与室内数值模拟相结合方法，分析汾河口傍河水源地可采水资源量，数值模型刻画黄河实际摆动边界，考虑潜水延迟给水和极端干旱气候条件等多种方案；利用环境同位素技术追踪傍河水源地开采条件下的河水激发补给过程和补给强度。研究表明，在渗透性较好的常年性河流旁建立的水源地，具有抵御极端气象、水文环境以丰补歉的能力，枯水年动用的含水层储存量。丰水年恢复性强。     

Sand harm in Taklimakan Desert highway and sand control

Reputed as a wonderful achievement of the world's highway construction history, the Taklimakan Desert highway is now facing serious sand drift encroachment problems due to its 447- km-long passage of sand sea consisting of crescent dunes, barchan chains, compound transverse dune ridges and complex megadunes. To solve some technical problems in the protection of the highway from sand drift encroachment, desert experts have been conducting the theoretical and applied studies on sand movement laws; causes, severities and time-space differentiation of sand drift damages; and control ways including mechanical, chemical and biological measures. In this paper the authors give an overall summary on the research contents and recent progress in the control of sand drift damages in China and hold that the theoretical research results and practices in the prevention of sand drift encroachment on the cross-desert highway represent a breakthrough and has an epoch-making significance. Since the construction of protective forest along the cross-desert highway requires large amount of ground water, what will be its environmental consequence and whether it can effectively halt sand drift encroachment on the highway forever are the questions to be studied urgently.     

遥感技术在高寒山区1:25万区域地质调查中的应用研究

针对高寒山区1：25万区调野外工作条件差、时间短，植被覆盖度低、遥感影像质量好的特点，提出了遥感影像解释、遥感标志剖面解译新概念，以及不同工作区用不同大法的新思路。研究、实践认为，利用遥感技术开展高寒山区区域地质调查能减少野外工作量，缩短周期，节约经费，提高调查质量和精度。