APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION TECHNIQUES WITH NWP PRODUCTS FOR OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

Statistical study is first performed of the efficiency of the technique of statistical interpretation using the products of NWP. The result shows that the application of the technique has improved the predictabilily of predictors in objective forecasting of tropical cyclone motion, increased the forecasting skill of models and extended the valid period of forecast. Then a discussion is made of some technical problems in the application in the motion forecasting, suggesting: a large sample of data and perfect forecast method be employed in constructing objective forecast models for tropical cyclone motion, predictors be included that are so finely built that they reflect all synoptic features and physical quantity fields and NWP products be used and corrected that are available at multiple times. It is one of the effective ways to improve the skill and stability of the forecast by composite use of outcomes from various forecasting models.     

Multi-stage pseudomorphic replacement of garnet during polymetamorphism: 2. Algebraic analysis of mineral assemblages

Chemical relationships among four metapelites have been studied by investigation of mineral and bulk chemistry data and by singular value decomposition analysis of single and composite assemblage matrices. Bulk rock compositions cluster close together in an AFM diagram, all within the intersection space defined by the four sample assemblages. The similarity of bulk compositions normalized on a silica-free, anhydrous basis indicates that sample chemistries differ mainly as a result of inhomogeneous distribution of quartz layers. The existence of mass balance relationships among samples indicates that assemblages also overlap in the Si–Ti–Al–Fe–Mg–Mn–Ca–Na–K multisystem. Analysis of single and composite matrices helps in defining possible mass balances linking sample mineral facies to one another during progressive contact metamorphism. The assemblage in sample A can form as the result of the model reaction 5.000  Ky+0.269 Grt+0.965 Bt+0.314 Pl=0.049 Ilm+1.115 Ms+0.849 Chl+0.306 St and react to assemblage B via reaction 0.97 Chl+0.52 Grt+0.66 Ms+0.14 Ilm+1.26  Ky=0.42 St+0.63 Bt+0.22 Pl coupled with the Ky→And transition. Assemblage B can transform into C by initial progress of Ky+Ilm+Chl+Grt+Ms=And+St+Bt+Pl followed by 0.142 Ilm+0.175 St+1.089 Chl+1.533 Ms+0.003 Grt=5.000 And+1.266 Bt+0.551 Pl Matrix analysis cannot satisfactorily model the C–D transition, because it predicts a net production of staurolite, which is in disagreement with petrographic evidence. All mass balances in the C–D composite matrix indicate net consumption of muscovite; this is integrated with the contrasting evidence of prograde pseudomorphs of muscovite after staurolite, observed in the nodules of sample D, within a model involving the progress of ionic reaction cycles.     

固体矿产钻探技术的现状和展望

分析了国际钻探市场现状以及固体矿产钻探技术的进展,归纳总结了近１０年来我国固体矿产钻探技术的主要进展,并对发展我国固体太科钻探技术提出了建议。     

非传统钻进方法热能碎岩的原理及其初步实践

提出了一种非传统的利用热能破碎岩石的新型钻进方法,包括热力钻进法,热熔岩石钻 和超高频电加热－机械切割组合钻进法,介绍了其碎岩机理,适用范围,初步应用情况及前景。     

水压致裂法地应力测量若干问题的探讨

在深层地应力测量中,水压致裂法是最有效的测量方法。本探讨了该方法的几个关键性问题,例如压裂特征参数的取值,三维地应力测量,压裂缝的方向,破裂准则和钻孔轴向秒是主应力的一个方向等问题。     

单只桶基安全负压沉贯操作方法物模试验初探

提出了由物质试验方法初步选择的一种可操作的单只桶基安全负压沉贯操作程序,它可作为试验室内多桶基导管架物模试验以及海上（近）原型尺度桶基试验实施负压沉贯操作方法的试验依据,通过对这些试验及其操作程序的修正和完善,可为实际桶基实施海上沉贯作业出一种可靠,安全的操作程序或方法。     

重力活塞取样器取样技术研究

现代海洋沉积物柱状取样技术是一套综合性的高新技术系统,它一般应该包括：优良的取样器具,方便灵活的取样操作设备,高精度的定位导航仪器和高分辨率的地形、地貌、地层探测系统等四个方面。我国和先进国家相比,取样操作设备方面差距最大,应该成为我国今后取样技术研究和发展的重点     

13C示踪技术在利玛原甲藻中腹泻性贝毒合成研究的应用

选取具有显著产毒差异的利玛原甲藻(Prorocentrum lima) SHG株与2XS株为研究对象,以2-¹³C-甘氨酸为示踪原料结合高分辨质谱方法,为腹泻性贝类毒素及其酯化态毒素合成与代谢途径的研究提供新方法和思路。结果表明,两株藻共发现16种腹泻性贝毒及其酯化态毒素成分。对照培养条件下SHG株(大田软海绵酸毒素含量为7.88 pg/cell,鳍藻毒素1含量为4.35 pg/cell)的产毒能力高于2XS株(大田软海绵酸毒素5.70pg/cell),而甘氨酸作为氮源培养条件可显著提高两株藻的产毒总量(P<0.05)。¹³C-甘氨酸标记组与甘氨酸培养组单细胞产毒量无显著变化(P>0.05)。腹泻性贝毒被标记后其同位素异构体丰度发生变化,其中酯化态受¹³C标记的影响程度更高,二级质谱图清晰表示出其碎片离子及脱水峰的标记情况。该方法直观阐明了甘氨酸可作为P. lima标记原料的产毒供体,并使用稳定同位素标记方法首次实现了酯化态的同步标记,有助于腹泻性贝毒生成机制的进一步研究。     

固体浮力材料海洋生物污损及其防护研究进展

固体浮力材料为水下设备设施提供必要的浮力,是海洋开发和作业不可缺少的重要材料,其长期在海洋环境中使用,容易受到海洋生物污损的影响。海洋污损生物附着在固体浮力材料表面,会对浮力材料本身和使用浮力材料的设备产生严重的危害,导致浮力材料性能下降、功能受损,严重影响了水下设施设备的使用寿命及经济价值。本文通过检索近阶段固体浮力材料及海洋生物污损领域的研究进展,总结了固体浮力材料的特性、海洋生物污损原理和污损防护技术。重点分析和比较了各类防护技术的作用机理、适用范围及优缺点,评估了复合防护法和新型防护法的发展及应用前景,基于工程实践经验针对固体浮力材料防污技术的未来发展趋势进行了探讨并提出了建议。     

Visual characterization technique for gravel‐cobble river bed surface sediments; validation and environmental applications Contribution to the programme of CIRSA (Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur le Saumon Atlantique)

This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility and the reliability of a visual characterization technique for gravel–cobble river bed surface substrate. Based on principal axis regressions, using phi scale (ϕ), comparisons of visual estimation and grid sampling techniques show that useful predictive relations (R² = 0·78–0·88) exist between visual estimates of the surface d₁₆, d₅₀ and d₈₄ and estimates obtained for the same percentiles with the grid sampling technique. Comparisons of visual estimation and the surface‐bulk sampling technique also indicate a predictive relation (R² = 0·70) between the d₅₀ of the two methods. Trained operators can visually estimate gravel–cobble bed surface d₁₆ to uncertainties of 41 per cent, d₅₀ to 15 per cent and d₈₄ to 11 per cent (for example, there is a 5·5 mm error on a d₈₄ size of 50 mm). Furthermore, evidence shows that if operators are properly trained, a calibration relation for each percentile can be applied independently of operators. This visual characterization allows effective detailed mapping of spatial patterns in substrate size distribution along extensive reaches of gravel‐bed rivers. The technique can be very useful in creating terrain models for various geomorphological, hydrological and biological applications such as the determination of entrainment thresholds, hydraulic roughness and substrate suitability for benthic insects or salmonid habitat. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.