Evaluation of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions

ABSTRACT

Understanding of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions is limited. This study compared lumped (IHACRES), semi-distributed (HEC-HMS) and fully-distributed (SWATgrid) hydrological models to determine which most realistically simulates runoff in catchments where non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships exists. The models were calibrated and validated under different hydroclimatic conditions (Average, Wet and Dry) for two heterogeneous catchments in southeast Australia (SEA). SWATgrid realistically simulates runoff in the smaller catchment under most hydroclimatic conditions but fails when the model is calibrated in Dry conditions and validated in Wet. All three models perform poorly in the larger catchment irrespective of hydroclimatic conditions. This highlights the need for more research aimed at improving the ability of hydrological models to realistically incorporate the physical processes causing non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships. Although the study is focussed on SEA, the insights gained are useful for all regions which experience large hydroclimatic variability and multi-year/decadal droughts.     

Sensitivity of seismic structural response to interpretation of soils data

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the predicted seismic response of buildings in a PWR nuclear power station to the potential changes in the techniques and methods of interpreting soil data that have occurred over the last decade. The investigation is based on the soil-structure interaction (SSI) response of a typical PWR reactor building on a soft site during a seismic event. The current techniques and methods of interpretation of soils data tend to lead to a stiffer site with lower soil material damping than the earlier techniques. This leads to an increase in the SSI natural frequencies of typical buildings and an increase in its seismic response. This increase in the seismic response could put into question any seismic design based on seismic loads derived using the previously accepted generic soil data. The paper concludes with a recommendation for further consideration of the proposed departure from the previously accepted soil data.     

Low-frequency variability in atmospheric middle latitudes

A short review of research trends in the study of low-frequency mid-latitude variations is presented. Theoretical developments have been concentrated upon with the major themes of multiple equilibria, flow stability and eddy-mean flow interaction reflecting the authors main interests. A new interpretation of the role of transient eddies in maintaining atmospheric blocking is also suggested in which eddy potential vorticity fluxes are considered to mediate a downstream transition between a zonal and a steady free Rossby wave flow. This treatment avoids emphasizing local balances and fluxes by the transients which are often entirely or partially reversible. The consequences of this interpretation are explored in the barotropic model of blocking first presented by Shutts (1983). This interpretation is used to suggest conditions in which the jetstream may be unlikely to undergo transition to a blocked weather regime.     

The stress field variation caused by faulting and the prediction for seismic risk

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Incoherent internal tidal currents in the deep ocean

Eleven months current meter observations from the deep Bay of Biscay were examined for the residual (incoherent internal tidal; icIT) signal, left after harmonic analysis using eight tidal constituents (large-scale barotropic or coherent baroclinic signal) within the semidiurnal band. This residual signal comprised 30% of the total tidal kinetic energy and, due to its flat spectral appearance, it was responsible for typically 5–7 days intermittency. Although icIT was part of the red noise internal wave band continuum, it was not attributable to instrumental noise. It consisted of quasi-harmonics at non-tidal harmonic frequencies having amplitudes larger than N₂, the third largest semidiurnal tidal constituent. It is suggested that the kinetic energy at these non-tidal frequencies reflects interaction between semidiurnal tidal motions and the slowly varying background conditions.Responsible Editor: Roger Proctor     

Gravity and Inertia-Gravity Internal Waves: Breaking Processes and Induced Mixing

Internal gravity waves, whether influenced or not by the Earths rotation, are ubiquitous dynamical features in the stratosphere and in the interior of the ocean. We review the mechanisms by which such waves may break when propagating in an infinite (possibly moving) fluid with uniform stratification. The methods and models used to quantify mixing in a stably-stratified fluid are next recalled. The mixing properties induced by the breaking waves as obtained from several field, experimental and numerical experiments reported in the literature are presented.     

液化场地上土体侧向变形对桩基影响研究评述

总结了地震作用下桩基震害现象以及桩-土-结构动力相互作用、液化引起地面侧向扩展对桩基的影响方面理论模型和分析方法的研究现状,指出了存在的问题,讨论了今后的发展趋势。     

Natural tracers in recent groundwaters from different Alpine aquifers

Groundwater with underground residence times between days and a few years have been investigated over more than 20 years from 487 remote sites located in different aquifer types in the Alpine belt. Analysis of the data reveals that groundwaters evolved in crystalline, evaporite, carbonate, molasse, and flysch aquifers can be clearly distinguished based on their major and trace element composition and degree of mineralisation. A further subdivision can be made even within one aquifer type based on the trace element compositions, which are characteristic for the lithologic environment. Major and trace element concentrations can be quantitatively described by interaction of the groundwater with the aquifer-specific mineralogy along the flow path. Because all investigated sites show minimal anthropogenic influences, the observed concentration ranges represent the natural background concentrations and can thus serve as a geo-reference for recent groundwaters from these five aquifer types. This geo-reference is particularly useful for the identification of groundwater contamination. It further shows that drinking water standards can be grossly exceeded for critical elements by purely natural processes.

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Resumen Durnate más de 20 años se ha investigado aguas subterráneas con una residencia subterránea con una duración de días a varios años en 487 puntos remotos localizados en diferentes tipos de acuíferos en la cadena alpina. El análisis de los datos revela que las aguas subterráneas que han evolucionado dentro de acuíferos cristalinos, evaporíticos, carbonatos, flysch, y molasse se pueden distignuir claramente en base a la composición de sus elementos mayores y marcadores y al grado de minerlización. Asimismo es posible hacer una subdivisión más específica incluso dentro de un tipo de acuífero en base a las composiciones de los elementos marcadores los cuales soncaracterísticos del ambiente litológico. Las concentraciones de los elementos marcadores se pueden describir cuantitativamente por la interacción de las aguas subterráneas con la mineralogía específica del acuífero a lo largo del trayecto del flujo. Puesto qze todos los puntos investigados muestran mínimas influencias antropogénicas, los rangos deconcentraciones observados representan las concentraciones delescenario natural y, por tanto, pueden servir como georeferencia para aguas subterráneas recientes que forman parte de estos cinco tipos de acuíferos. Esta georeferencia es particularmente útil para la identificcación de contaminación de aguas subterráneas. Asimismo muestra que los estándares de agua potable pueden mostrar excesos en elementos críticos por procesos puramente naturales.

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Résumé Leau souterraine ayant résidé sous la surface du sol entre quelques jours et quelques années a été étudiée sur une période de plus de 20 ans à partir de 487 sites éloignés situés dans différents types daquifères de la ceinture alpine. Lanalyse des données révèle que leau qui a évoluée dans des aquifères cristallins, évaporitiques, carbonatés, molassiques et composés de flysch, peut être facilement différenciée sur la base de sa composition en éléments majeurs et traces, ainsi que par son degré de minéralisation. Une subdivision supplémentaire peut être apportée à lintérieur même dun type daquifère en se basant sur la composition des éléments traces, lesquels sont caractéristiques de lenvironnement lithologique. La concentration en éléments majeurs et traces peut être expliquée quantitativement par linteraction de leau souterraine avec la composition minéralogique spécifique de laquifère le long des lignes découlement. Puisque la majorité des sites étudiés ne montrent que très peu dinfluences anthropogéniques, le registre de concentrations observées représente la concentration de fond naturelle et peut ainsi servir comme géo-référence pour les eaux souterraines récentes dans ces cinq types daquifères. Ces géo-références sont particulièrement utiles pour lidentification de la contamination des eaux souterraines. Par ailleurs, cela démontre que les standards deau potable peuvent être excédés pour certains éléments en raison de processus purement naturels.

     

Determination of hydraulic parameters of an unconfined alluvial aquifer by the floodwave-response technique

Groundwater constitutes a vital component of the water-resource system. Adequate knowledge of aquifer parameters is of utmost importance for proper groundwater management. In the present study, an attempt has been made to critically analyze the river–aquifer interaction and to explore the practicability and reliability of the floodwave-response technique in estimating the hydraulic parameters of the Konan aquifer, Japan. The analysis of the pertinent hydrologic and hydrogeologic data revealed a strong relationship between the Monobe River stage and the groundwater levels over a major portion of the Konan basin. Inverse modeling, using the floodwave-response model at four sites, yielded high values of hydraulic diffusivity that ranged from 16 to 194 m²/s. However, the overall average aquifer diffusivity was found to be reasonable (0.7–3.5 m²/s). All the selected flood events were not found suitable for determining reasonable values of hydraulic diffusivity at a given site. Using the optimal diffusivities at two sites and the aquifer transmissivity from the pumping tests at these sites, the storage coefficient values were estimated as those of truly confined aquifers. In contrast, reasonable values of storage coefficient were obtained based on the average aquifer diffusivity estimates. The sensitivity analysis of the floodwave-response model indicated that the optimal hydraulic diffusivity is very sensitive to the distance parameters of the model, which necessitate precise measurement of these parameters. It is concluded that a judicious application of the floodwave-response technique is essential, especially in the case of unconfined aquifers.

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Resumen El agua subterránea constituye un componente vital de los sistemas de recursos hídricos. El conocimiento adecuado de los parámetros del acuífero es de suma importancia para el manejo apropiado del agua subterránea. En el presente estudio se ha realizado un intento para analizar críticamente la interacción río-acuífero y explorar la confiabilidad y utilidad de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida para estimar los parámetros hidráulicos del acuífero Konan, Japón. El análisis de datos hidrológicos e hidrogeológicos pertinentes muestra una relación fuerte entre el nivel del Río Monobe y los niveles de agua subterránea en gran parte de la cuenca Konan. El modelizado de inversión utilizando el modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida en cuatro sitios generó valores altos de difusividad hidráulica que varían de 16 a 194 m²/s. Sin embargo, se encontró que la difusividad promedio global del acuífero tenía valores razonables (0.7 a 3.5 m²/s). Todos los eventos de crecida seleccionados no fueron encontrados satisfactorios para determinar valores razonables de difusividad hidráulica en un sitio determinado. Utilizando las difusividades óptimas en dos sitios y la transmisividad del acuífero proveniente de pruebas de bombeo en esos sitios se estimaron valores del coeficiente de almacenamiento como los que se obtendrían para acuíferos completamente confinados. En contraste, se obtuvieron valores razonables del coeficiente de almacenamiento basados en los cálculos de difusividades promedio del acuífero. Los análisis de sensitividad del modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida indicaron que la difusividad óptima hidráulica es muy sensitiva a los parámetros de distancia del modelo por lo que se necesitan mediciones precisas de esos parámetros. Se concluye que es esencial una aplicación sensata de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida, especialmente en el caso de acuíferos no confinados.

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Resumé Leau souterraine constitue une composante vitale des systèmes de ressource en eau. Une connaissance adéquate des paramètres des aquifères est importante pour une gestion correcte de ces systèmes. Dans cette étude, la démarche consiste à analyser linteraction rivière–aquifère de manière critique et dexplorer la technique permettant destimer les paramètres hydrauliques de laquifère Konan, Japon. Lanalyse pertinente des données hydrologiques et hydrogéologiques révèle une relation forte entre le niveau de la rivière Monobe et les niveaux piézométriques sur une grande partie du bassin de Konan. La modélisation inverse utilisant le modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue sur quatre sites fournit des valeurs de diffusivité comprises entre 16 et 194 m²/s. Néanmoins la valeur moyenne de diffusivité est apparue raisonnable (entre 0.7 et 3.5 m²/s). Tous les évènements de crue nont pas été retenus comme permettant de calculer avec une bonne fiabilité la diffusivité sur un site donné. En utilisant les données optimales de diffusivité provenant de deux sites, et la transmissivité fournie par les essais de pompage, le coefficient demmagasinement a été déterminé et correspond bien à un aquifère confiné. Par contraste, des valeurs raisonnables de coefficient demmagasinement ont été déterminées par estimation de la diffusivité moyenne de laquifère. Lanalyse de sensibilité du modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue indique que la diffusivité hydraulique optimale est très sensible à la distance utilisée dans le modèle, qui nécessite dés lors une mesure précise. En conclusion il est essentiel que ce type dapplication doit tre judicieusement mis en oeuvre, et spécialement dans le cadre daquifères captifs.