刍议《重庆历史地图集》第二卷的编制

以《重庆历史地图集》第二卷编制的具体情况为例,对图集的开本设计、内容结构设计、封面和版式设计、整体设计、创新源,以及图集编制取得的经验进行了论述,为以后类似图集的编制提供参考。     

Evaluation of the Historical Sampling Error for Global Models

Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.     

基于MicroStation V8的地形图更新与质检系统的开发

在MicroStation VBA环境下,对MicroStation V8进行二次开发,实现了一套基于MicroStation V8平台的多比例尺地形图要素更新与质检系统。该文着重阐述了该系统在处理点、线、面、注记、属性、出图效果及质量检查控制等方面的设计。通过二次开发,快速实现了地形图的更新与维护,并有利于质量的控制,符合入库要求。     

空三加密在数字摄影测量中的精度分析

该文结合章丘市1∶2000地形图绘制项目的具体实践,认为航空摄影测量产品误差来源主要为空三加密这一重要工序,影响空三加密精度的因素主要为：影像质量（分辨率、清晰度、重叠度）、像控点选取及精度、加密点的选取及加密解算方法、加密人员的经验等。找出影响空三加密精度的主要因素及解决办法,结合生产实践解决了1∶2000地形图绘制空三加密精度问题。     

Testing the credibility of historical newspaper reporting of extreme climate and weather events

In recent years, newspaper research has been streamlined by digitisation and online hosting by PapersPast. This paper tests the reliability and credibility of reporting of extreme weather and climatic events through PapersPast to determine if newspaper research of past climate can be further streamlined. Searches were conducted through four early‐20th‐century Auckland newspapers, where counts of articles returned by key‐word searches for particular periods were compared against periods of known extremes. We find that blind searches have only limited potential in identifying extreme weather and climatic events and that they are no substitute for thorough analyses of documentary sources.     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

东北地区历史时期森林空间格局网格化重建方法研究(英文)

The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change(LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation(PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from-30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model.     

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.     

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