The habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC): A new effective tool for predictive modeling in archaeology

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS, incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models, that of critical thinking. The new model suggested in this paper is named habitation Model Trend Calculation (MTC) and is not only integrates the archaeological questions with a critical view, but it can be easily adjusted, according to the conditions or the questions concerning the archaeological community. Furthermore, it uses new topographical and geomorphological indexes such as Topographical Index (TPI), Hillslope and Landform Classification that give a new sense of the topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the examined area; therefore this model is a more powerful tool compared to older models that did not use new topographical and geomorphological indexes. The success of the created model is checked as a case study in the region of Messenia, Greece during the Mycenaean era. The region of Messenia is considered as one of the most important Mycenaean regions of Greece due to the great number and the importance of Mycenaean sites identified. For the present paper, 140 habitation sites were divided into four hierarchical categories (centers, large villages, villages, and farms) based on the extent and the plurality of the tholos tombs that exist in the broader region and according to the hierarchical categorization used by the archaeologists who have studied the area. The new predictive model presented in this work can assist in solving a series of criticisms that have been expressed in the previous studies regarding such models. Additionally, in the case of Mycenaean Messenia, the model shows excellent results in relation to the habitats of the time.     

Sensitivity analysis of spatially aggregated responses: A gradient‐based method

We often need to report on environmental, economic and social indicators, and properties at aggregated spatial scales, e.g. average income per suburb. To do this, we invariably create reporting polygons that are somewhat arbitrary. The question arises: how much does this arbitrary subdivision of space affect the outcome? In this paper, we develop a new, gradient‐based framework for carrying out a rigorous analysis of the sensitivity of integrating functions to quantitative changes in their spatial configuration. This approach is applied to both analytical and empirical models, and it allows the reporting of a hierarchy of sensitivity measures (from global to local). We found that the concepts of a vector space representing the spatial configurations and the response (hyper‐)surface on which gradients indicate the sensitivities to be helpful in developing the sensitivity analytical framework of spatial configurations in different dimensions. This approach works well with both analytical and empirical integrating functions. This approach resulted in a clear ranking of the sensitivities of the responses to changes in the reporting regions in an existing environmental reporting application. The approach also allowed us to find which vertices, and the directions of change of those vertices, influenced the outcome most. The application of the spatial framework allows the results to be reported in a hierarchical way, from the sensitivities of an integrative response to changes in a whole reserve/reporting system, down to the sensitivity along each of the dimensions of the vertices in the spatial configuration. The results of the spatial sensitivity framework that we developed in this paper can be readily visualized by plotting the sensitivities as vectors on geographic maps. This simplifies the presentation and facilitates the uptake of the results in the situations where the spatial configurations are complicated.     

Analysis of the geographical accessibility of neurosurgical emergency hospitals in Sapporo city using GIS and AHP

To improve the geographical accessibility of neurosurgical emergency hospitals for elderly people, we developed several alternative site plans for a new neurosurgical emergency hospital in Sapporo, Japan. Hospitals, population data, routes, and the numerical information for the Analytic Hierarchy Process computations were input into a Geographical Information System. Pairwise comparison revealed the following weights which were assigned to each of the four criteria: 0.674 for availability of hospital beds; 0.169 for the maximum road distance of the shortest routes; 0.101 for the elderly population within a 3‐km radius; and 0.056 for the median road distance of the shortest routes. The alternative proposed could cover 4000 more elderly people in the 3‐km radius of the hospitals. The integration of Geographical Information Systems and the Analytic Hierarchy Process constitutes a powerful tool for analysing traffic conditions in mid‐sized cities and for suggesting city planning to improve prognosis of stroke.     

多级模糊模式识别模型在地质环境质量评价中的应用

应用多级模糊模式识别模型进行地质环境质量评价,克服了最大隶属度原则所不适用的地方,而且以相对隶属度、隶属函数为基础理论,使隶属度、隶属函数的计算更容易.建立环境质量评价模型,并应用于陕西省略阳县地质环境质量综合评价中,应用结果表明,该方法合理、可行.     

基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型

森林火灾发生频繁且突发性强,进行森林火险快速预警对于减小森林火灾损失和促进森林资源可持续发展至关重要。本文基于GIS空间分析和可视化技术,利用地面气象站构建实时气象监测网络,设计了运用气象监测网络的森林火险预警模型,可实现森林火险及时、快速预警。模型应用层次分析法建立了预警因子重要性层次结构并确定预警因子的权重;运用Voronoi图技术,基于气象站点和实时气象数据,构建气象监测网络;利用叠置分析技术计算得出预警结果。基于该模型设计的森林火灾快速预警系统应用于青海省林业局,验证了系统可行性与适用性,该模型可全面、准确、快速地实现对森林火险的预警。结果表明：① 根据预警模型及实时气象监测数据,可及时发出预警信号,快速实现县级、林场级别的森林火险早期预警和及时响应;② 运用GIS可视化技术,可快速生成相关区域森林火险的空间分布专题图,直观地观察预警等级的变化情况。实践表明,森林火险快速预警对森林火灾进行有效预防、中断管理和制定扑救措施具有重要的指导作用,并对森林防火工作、保护森林资源和人类生命财产安全具有重大意义。     

新源县汇水域单元滑坡灾害易发性评价

针对滑坡灾害易发性难以定量评价的问题,提出了以汇水域为基本统计单元,层次分析法与信息量法相结合的滑坡易发性评价模型。该模型是在综合分析已有监测数据的基础上,建立了坡度、黄土分布、土地表覆被、水系、断层、高程、地表粗糙度、坡向等8类要素与滑坡稳定性的相关性,根据评价结果将滑坡易发性划分为5个不同的等级。基于新疆新源县滑坡易发性评价的实验结果表明,该模型评价结果与滑坡实际分布情况相符,能够准确对不同汇水域灾害易发性进行分级评价,可以为相关部门进行防灾、预警提供一定的数据支持。提出了一种主观判断与客观分析相结合的方法,回答了"什么地方最容易发生地质灾害"的问题。     

长江流域水资源空间分配

针对当前水资源空间分配方法存在影响因素选择不全,权重设计主观性强,且难以适用于大尺度流域范围等问题,该文提出了一种面向长江流域的水资源空间分配模型。该模型选取了年均降雨量、地形坡度、地表植被覆盖和区域集水面积作为水资源分配的影响因子,利用相关性分析方法和AHP层次分析法优化了因子影响权重设计,实现了长江流域的水资源空间分配,并采用长江流域二级子流域的水资源量统计数据进行精度检验。实验结果揭示了长江流域水资源量在1km格网尺度的空间分布差异,表明了该文面向长江流域水资源空间分配模型的合理性和准确性。     

A participatory framework for developing public participation GIS solutions to improve resource management systems

Participatory approaches elicit information from multiple stakeholders while planning and implementing resource management systems. Such elicited information is often associated with significant variability. Public participation geographical information science (GIS) (PP-GIS) solutions can reduce this variability by helping stakeholders to measure the factors involved and provide the elicited information. We propose a ‘Quality Function Deployment’-based participatory framework for developing such PP-GIS solutions. It is demonstrated using a case study to enhance an existing PP-GIS into a solution for rainwater harvesting systems in Indian villages. The novelty of the proposed framework is that it identifies metrics and carries out comparative analysis of three existing solutions: participatory rural appraisal, participatory mapping and PP-GIS. In the case study, PP-GIS scored less than participatory mapping as it scored less on usability and affordability. To improve PP-GIS in these aspects, an easy-to-use mobile and web based, free and open source PP-GIS solution, Watershed GIS, was developed. It scored better than the three existing solutions and its usage resulted in substantial reduction of variability in criteria values and thus better ranking of alternatives, with the average coefficient of variation decreasing from 0.12 to 0.05.     

Computing a hierarchy favored optimal route in a Voronoi-based road network with multiple levels of detail

This paper introduces a robust method for computing the optimal route with hierarchy. We convert a planar road network into its Voronoi-based counterpart with multiple levels of detail (LoDs), which is subsequently assigned travel times that are estimated for different times of day using taxicab trajectory data. On the basis of this network structure, we model the path-finding process in travel, as the optimal route with hierarchy is computed in a ‘coarse-to-fine’ manner. In other words, the route is iteratively constructed from roads in a low LoD network to roads in a high LoD network. To confirm the efficiency and effectiveness of our method, comparative experiments were conducted using randomly selected pairs of origins/destinations in Wuhan, China. The results indicate that our travel lengths are on average 12% longer than those computed by the Dijkstra algorithm and 15% shorter than those computed by the hierarchical algorithm (in ArcGIS). Our travel times are on average 29% longer than those computed by the Dijkstra algorithm and 31% shorter than those computed by the hierarchical algorithm (in ArcGIS). Hence, we argue that our method is situated in terms of performance between the Dijkstra algorithm and the hierarchical algorithm (in ArcGIS). Moreover, road usage patterns confirm that our algorithm is cognitively equivalent to the hierarchical algorithm (in ArcGIS) by favoring high-class roads and outperforms the Dijkstra algorithm by avoiding choosing low-class roads. Computationally, our method outperforms the Dijkstra algorithm but is on the same level as the hierarchical algorithm (in ArcGIS) in terms of efficiency. Therefore, it has the potential to be used in real-time routing applications or services.     

基于遥感与GIS的区域生态环境评价方法的研究

在对某地区进行生态环境评价研究过程中,往往很难准确合理地确定各类评价指标的权重。层次分析(AHP)与模糊数学(fuzzy mathematics) 综合评判法是根据模糊数学的隶属度理论把定性评价转化为定量评价,建立模糊综合评价模型。确定地区的生态环境健康指标体系,分为目标层、准则层和指标层,并选取实验区的各类生态指标。采用组合赋权法确定各层次权重,然后计算出各指标的权重建立模糊综合评价模型,最后根据提取的遥感数据完成地区生态环境评价分级。运用基于AHP与模糊数学的综合评判法确定评价指标的权重,在GIS平台上对各评价指标进行加权叠加,得到地区生态环境的等级评价图,实现了地区生态环境评价。研究结果表明,使用该方法确定地区生态环境各指标权重所得的评价分级是与现实吻合的,这对于评价和保护地区生态环境具有现实意义。