Nonlinear response of runoff to atmospheric freezing level height variation based on hybrid prediction models

ABSTRACT

We use data on the freezing level height (FLH) and summer runoff in the Hotan River, China, from 1960 to 2013, to analyse the nonlinear relationships of atmospheric and hydrological factors at different time scales, by employing three nonlinear decomposition methods. Six hybrid prediction models are established by combining linear regression and back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) models. The decomposition results by three nonlinear methods are compared, indicating that the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method ensures the best prediction capacity. The runoff and FLH have periods of 3 and 6 years, respectively, at the inter-annual scale, which pass the significance test of 0.05 (P < 0.05) by using the Monte Carlo method, although there were slight differences in the periods at the inter-decadal scale. Among the six models, ESMD-BPANN exhibits the highest accuracy, with good reliability and resolution, according to several performance indicators. The ESMD-BPANN model is thus selected for the simulation and prediction of runoff.     

天气可预报性的时空分布

为了能从非线件误差增长动力学的角度研究大气的可预报性问题,文章引入了可预报性研究的新方法--非线性局部Lyapunov指数.非线性局部Lyapunov指数及其相关统计量能够被用来定量地确定混沌系统可预报性的大小,真正地实现对可预报性的定量化研究.为了把非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法应用到实际的大气可预报性研究中,给出了一种利用大气的实际观测资料估计非线性局部Lyapunov指数的计算方法.存非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法的基础上,文中利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对大气位势高度场、温度场、纬向风场、经向风场等要素场可预报性的时空分布进行了研究,结果表明:(1)在500 hPa高度层上,对于不同的要素场,其可预报期限的大小以及时空分布规律都不一样;全球大部分地区位势高度场可预报期限最大,温度场和纬向风场次之,而经向风场的可预报期限最小.(2)在500 hPa高度层七,位势高度场和温度场的纬向平均可预报期限基本上表现为一定的南北纬向带状分布,热带地区和南极地区的可预报期限最大,北极地区次之,南北半球中高纬度地区可预报期限相对较小.纬向风场可预报期限在热带地区最高,但是南北极地区可预报期限与邻近的中高纬度地区差别不大.经向风场可预报期限在南北两极地区最高,南北半球的中纬度和赤道附近地区可预报期限最小.(3)在垂直方向上,纬向平均高度场、温度场以及纬向风场可预报期限基本上都是随高度升高而增加,高层的可预报期限明显大于低层;经向风场可预报期限随高度的变化比较复杂,不同的纬度有所不同.(4)可预报性有明显的季节变化,不同要素场可预报期限高低值区的位置和强度随季节鄙有明显变化,对于全球大部分地区来说,冬季可预报性都大于夏季的.     

A Comparison Between Modelled and Measured Mixing-Layer Height Over Munich

An attempt is made to correlate the mixing heights, derived from ceilometer and Sodar measurements, to those simulated by different atmospheric boundary-layer parameterization schemes. The comparison is performed at two sites (one suburban and one rural) close to Munich, Germany for two spring and two winter days. It is found that, under convective conditions, the mixing height determined, by both Sodar and ceilometer, corresponds to the middle or the top of the entrainment zone, respectively, as calculated from the eddy-viscosity profiles. Under stable conditions, the measured mixing height is related to the height where eddy viscosities attain their minimum values (Sodar) or to the height of residual mechanical turbulence (ceilometer). During a foehn case with weak turbulence, the measured mixing height from both Sodar and ceilometer is better inferred by considering the eddy-viscosity profiles during daytime and the height of the low-level jet during nighttime.     

云南探空仪换型温度和位势高度观测数据对比分析

基于云南探空仪换型平行观测期间各标准等压面上的温度和位势高度观测数据以及对应的ECMWF模式预报场数据,利用偏差、标准差、均方根误差和相关系数等对新、旧探空仪观测数据进行对比分析和评估。结果表明:新、旧探空仪观测数据一致性较好,在100 hPa以下两者温度绝对偏差小于1.0℃,位势高度绝对偏差小于30 gpm,100 hPa以上温度和位势高度最大绝对偏差分别为3.9℃和151.0 gpm。除高层个别等压面外,新、旧探空仪观测数据离散性基本一致或新探空仪离散性相对较小。新探空仪观测数据与模式数据更为一致,在中高层表现更为明显;相对于模式数据,新、旧探空仪温度偏差分别集中在±0.7℃、±0.9℃左右,最大均方根误差分别为3.0℃、4.5℃,平均相关系数分别约为0.78、0.73;新、旧探空仪位势高度最大偏差分别为28.5 gpm、130.9 gpm,最大均方根误差分别为87.6 gpm、136.9 gpm,平均相关系数分别约为0.86、0.78。     

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June–November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958–2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Ni o3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects.Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.     

Asperity Height and Aperture of an Artificial Tensile Fracture of Metric Size

Summary  A tensile fracture of about 1 m in length was created by indenting wedges in a block of granite, and the heights of the two fracture surfaces were measured using a large, non-contact surface profile measurement system with a laser profilometer to determine the aperture distribution of the fracture. Based on the measured data, the frequency characteristics of the asperity heights, the initial aperture (the aperture when the surfaces are in contact at a single point), and the size effect on the statistical properties were analyzed. The results can be summarized as follows:

电磁波测高方法在矿山开采沉陷中的应用研究

目前地表移动观测站仍然是矿山在采动影响下研究地表移动变形规律的有效技术手段。测绘新技术的发展与应用给地表移动观测站提供了各种先进的技术方法。本文介绍了地表移动观测站采集监测信息过程中,采用电磁波测高方法代替几何水准测量获取监测点高程信息的方法。通过实际观测试验与精度分析,此方法在技术上是可行的,在精度是允许的,大大简化了测量工序,提高了工作效率。     

浅谈宁安城际铁路坐标系统与芜湖当地坐标系统的转换

在工程测量中我们会遇到很多关于两个坐标系统之间的坐标转换,为了更好的解决这个问题,该文通过宁安城际铁路工程实例,运用Powercoor转换软件,快速计算实现铁路系统北京54坐标与芜湖当地坐标之间的转换。     

精密工程测量的发展概述

工程测量的理论与方法的发展,与具体的工程建设戚戚相关。文中概述了现代精密工程测量仪器及方法的发展状况及其在一些具体工程中的应用。     

Lidar点云数据中建筑物的快速提取

Lidar技术可快速获取地表的高精度三维点云数据, 目前对此类数据的分类却是速度慢、精度低, 尤其是城市区域建筑物和树木靠得较近时更是难以准确提取建筑物.介绍了一种基于点云数据生成距离影像, 而后引入对比度纹理辅助的点云数据建筑物快速提取方法.结果证明, 该方法不需要其他辅助数据就能实现点云数据中建筑物的快速提取.