Urban fluvial flood modelling using a two‐dimensional diffusion‐wave treatment,part 2: development of a sub‐grid‐scale treatment

This paper develops and tests a sub‐grid‐scale wetting and drying correction for use with two‐dimensional diffusion‐wave models of urban flood inundation. The method recognizes explicitly that representations of sub‐grid‐scale topography using roughness parameters will provide an inadequate representation of the effects of structural elements on the floodplain (e.g. buildings, walls), as such elements not only act as momentum sinks, but also have mass blockage effects. The latter may dominate, especially in structurally complex urban areas. The approach developed uses high‐resolution topographic data to develop explicit parameterization of sub‐grid‐scale topographic variability to represent both the volume of a grid cell that can be occupied by the flow and the effect of that variability upon the timing and direction of the lateral fluxes. This approach is found to give significantly better prediction of fluvial flood inundation in urban areas than traditional calibration of sub‐grid‐scale effects using Manning's n. In particular, it simultaneously reduces the need to use exceptionally high values of n to represent the effects of using a coarser mesh process representation and increases the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in n. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网格环境下基于双服务器和时间优先的资源查找法

对网格环境下现有查找方法进行了简要分析和比较,指出了其中存在的不足,提出了基于双服务器和时间优先的资源查找算法(Dual Serve&Time First,简称DSTF)。对这些资源查找方法进行了时间和空间复杂度分析,结果表明DSTF算法的时间复杂度不大,其空间复杂度小,是网格环境下一种有效的资源查找方法。     

PDM的工作流管理技术研究

介绍了PDM系统的基本功能，详细论述了工作流管理模块对产品开发过程中项目管理和工程更改业务的支持。工作流管理是PDM的核心功能之一，不仅与系统的其它模块联系紧密，而且在很大程度上决定整个PDM系统能否在企业成功的实施应用。     

Contact metamorphism around the Stawell granite, Victoria, Australia

The contact metamorphosed metapelitic and metapsammitic rocks surrounding the Stawell granite, western Victoria, Australia, are divided into three zones: the low-grade zone, the medium-grade zone and the high-grade zone. Detailed petrological study shows consistency of element distributions, implying that equilibrium was widely attained in the rocks, although equilibrium volumes are generally small (millimetre scale) and considerable mineral chemical variations exist between adjacent domains. The metamorphic mineral assemblages are generally of high variance (KFMASH variance ≤ 2). Consequently, the chemical evolution of assemblages is controlled largely by bulk composition and metamorphic temperature, the former factor being more important in most rocks. The chemographic relations of mineral assemblages in low- and medium- to high-grade zones are presented in compatibility diagrams projected from biotite, quartz and H₂O, and biotite, K-feldspar and H₂O, respectively. These compatibility diagrams have the advantage of showing both quartz-bearing and quartz-absent assemblages. The metamorphic reactions are modelled successfully by a calculated petrogenetic grid that combines both KFASH and KMASH equilibria. Based on petrographic observations and with constraints from the calculated petrogenetic grid, the following KFMASH reactions, in the order of increasing metamorphic grade, are responsible for producing the various mineral assemblages in the Stawell rocks: chl + mu + q = bi + cd + V, chl + q + cd = g + V, mu + bi + q = ksp + cd + V, mu + q = ksp + and + cd + V (or KASH mu + q = ksp + and + V), mu + cd = ksp + and + bi + V, mu + bi + and = ksp + sp + V, and + bi = ksp + sp + cd + V, mu + bi = ksp + cor + sp + V, mu = ksp + cor + and + sp + V (or KASH mu = ksp + cor + V), bi + cd + q = g + ksp + V. The combined KFASH and KMASH grid provides constraints on reaction coefficients in the above sequence of reactions and on temperature and pressure of metamorphism.     

CMA-GD模式江西省智能网格预报区域2 m气温预报误差分析

利用2020年6月1日—2022年5月31日CMA GD模式2 m气温预报产品（预报时效为13—36 h）和同期江西省智能网格预报区域内地面站气温观测资料,计算气温预报准确率、平均误差和均方根误差,并统计分析其时空分布特征。结果表明： 1）模式预报准确率在不同月份、起报时次存在差异,暖季总体较高,冷季总体较低;暖季08时起报产品的月准确率总体高于20时,冷季反之;秋、冬季旬准确率分布更离散。模式预报产品其准确率明显低于中央气象台和江西省气象台订正产品,需订正后使用。08时起报产品对寒潮的预报效果优于20时。2）气温预报年误差分布存在日变化,最大值出现在08时,最小值出现在15时;年均方根误差峰值出现在15时和06时,白天大于夜间。3）冬季平均误差多为正值,夏季为负值,春、秋季平均误差大小界于冬、夏季之间;白天时段夏季均方根误差最大,夜间时段冬季最大。4）气温预报年误差地理分布特征明显,平原地区预报值偏低,年均方根误差最小;丘陵和山区22 h时效预报值偏高,31 h时效偏低;高山站预报值偏高,年均方根误差最大。丘陵地区负误差最大,平原地区最小;山区正误差最大。     

中国数值天气预报的自主创新发展

数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾、减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在理论、方法和数值模式研究方面取得了有广泛国际影响的研究成果。在回顾新中国数值天气预报自主创新研究成果的基础上,重点对GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）半隐式半拉格朗日格点模式与物理过程的研发和业务应用的状况以及所取得的重要科学进展进行了综述。近年来,通过自主研发建立了中国数值天气预报业务体系—GRAPES体系。首次以自主技术实现了从区域3—10 km到全球25—50 km分辨率的确定性预报和集合预报系统,并在模式动力框架、四维变分同化和卫星资料同化技术等方面有所突破,建立了大气化学数值天气预报、台风数值预报和海浪预报等系统。自主研发的数值天气预报体系的建立是长期坚持既定科学技术方向以及研究和业务紧密结合、经验不断积累的结果,是中国自主发展数值天气预报技术的重要起点。      

Effects of DEM Resolution on Modeling Coastal Flood Vulnerability

Abstract

This article examines whether Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution affects the accuracy of predicted coastal inundation extent using LISFLOOD-FP, with application to a sandy coastline in New Jersey. DEMs with resolution ranging from 10 to 100 m were created using coastal elevation data from NOAA, using the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model was developed in LISFLOOD-FP using each DEM, all of which were calibrated and validated against an observed 24-h tidal cycle and used to simulate a 1.5 m storm surge. While differences in predicted inundated area from all models were within 1.0%, model performance and computational time worsened and decreased with coarser DEM resolution, respectively. This implied that using a structured grid model for modeling coastal flood vulnerability is based on two trade-offs: high DEM resolution coupled with computational intensity, but higher precision in model predictions, and vice versa. Furthermore, water depth predictions from all DEMs were consistent. Using an integrated numerical modeling and GIS approach, a two-scale modeling strategy, where a coarse DEM is used to predict water levels for projection onto a fine DEM was found to be an effective, and computationally efficient approach for obtaining reliable estimates of coastal inundation extent.     

2014年云南地区GNSS最大剪应变格网时序异常与M≥6.0地震关系分析

基于2014年云南地区28个GNSS连续跟踪站30 s采样率的数据,以震前3个月为时间尺度、1个月为窗长,提取最大剪应变格网时间序列。对去除趋势项后的最大剪应变时间序列,设定2倍标准差作为异常阈值,以2014年盈江6.1级、鲁甸6.5级和景谷6.6级地震为样本,对地震孕育过程中最大剪应变格网时序异常与M≥6.0地震的关系进行分析。结果表明,2014年云南地区GNSS最大剪应变格网时序异常分布与上述3个地震存在较好的对应关系,震前短期内最大剪应变异常格网集中分布于震中附近区域,且存在震前增强、震后快速消失的现象;最大剪应变异常格网分布相对集中的区域可作为预报M≥6.0地震发生地点的参考性指标。最大剪应变综合指标值预测结果显示,本次预测地震数4个,成功预报地震数3个,漏报数0个,虚报地震数1个(指标出现而未发生地震),准确率为75%。从空间角度来看,3次地震的震中都位于异常格网边缘,表明最大剪应变异常区边缘可能更加危险。     

规模GNSS网数据处理一体化方案与中国大陆水平格网速度场模型构建研究

针对当前大规模GNSS网在数据预处理、组织管理、基准站选取、处理策略、分区方案、质量检核与评估以及现有研究中速度场模型数据量小、连续性不佳、现势性不强等问题,首先基于2011~2017年陆态网260多个连续运行基准站的观测数据探讨大网解算的一体化数据处理流程,给出适用于大规模GNSS网数据处理的优化原则与质量评估方案,并着重分析不同的数据解算成果评估策略,其对大规模GNSS站网的高精度数据解算具有借鉴和参考意义;然后基于解算得到的ITRF2014框架下高精度速度场成果,采用克里金插值构建中国大陆水平格网速度场模型,并利用国内IGS站和陆态网区域站的精确速度值,对格网内插结果进行外部检验,结果表明,东、北方向速度残差的平均误差和中误差均小于2 mm/a,验证了模型的准确性、可靠性、简便性与现势性。     

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) calibration for steel grid reinforced soil walls

This paper reports the results of load and resistance factor design (LRFD) calibration for pullout and yield limit states for steel grid reinforced soil walls owing to soil self-weight loading plus permanent uniform surcharge. The calibration method uses bias statistics to account for prediction accuracy of the underlying deterministic models for reinforcement load, pullout capacity and yield strength of the steel grids, and random variability in input parameters. A new revised pullout design model is proposed to improve pullout resistance prediction accuracy and to remove hidden dependency with calculated pullout resistance values. Load and resistance factors are proposed that give a uniform probability of failure of 1% for both pullout and yield limit states. The approach adopted in this paper has application to a wide variety of other reinforced soil wall technologies.