Method for evaluating the degrees of land use sustainability of mountainous county and its application in Yunnan Province,China

The evaluation of sustainable land use is the key issue in the field of studying the sustainable land utilization. In general analysis, the sustainable land use is evaluated respectively from its ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability in China and other countries in recent years. Although this evaluation is an important work, it seems insufficient and hard to comprehensively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability. Thus, to make up this deficiency, this paper brings forward the evaluation indexes, which make it possible to quantitatively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability, namely, the concept of ＂degrees of overall land use sustainability＂ （Dos）, and research and measurement development of the method of and calculation in Dos. Taking the evaluation of the degree of land use sustainability in county regions of Yunnan Province as the actual example for analysis, results are basically as follows：
1） The degree of land use sustainability （Dos） is the ration index to organically and systematically integrate the degree of ecological friendliness （DeF）, the degree of economic viability （Dev） and the degree of social acceptability （Dsa）, able to comprehensively reflect the whole sustainability degree of regional land use
2） Based on the value of Dos, the grading system and standard for the sustainability of land use may be established and totally divided into five grades, namely, the high-degree sustainability, middle-degree sustainability, low-degree sustainability, conditional sustainability and non-sustainability. Meanwhile, the standard for distinguishing sustainability grades has also been confirmed so as to determine the nature of sustainability degrees in different grades. This makes the possibility for the combination of nature determination with ration in research result and provides with the scientific guideline and decision-making gist for better implementation of sustainable land use strategy.
3） The pract     

金沙江下游多种面雨量集成预报方法的对比分析

集成方法有利于提高降水要素预报的准确性和可预报性。本文基于格点实况资料和智能网格预报、西南区域数值预报、ECMWF模式预报、GRAPES模式预报产品,以面雨量为研究对象,采用多元回归法、BP神经网络法、评分权重法、加权集成预报法和算术平均法,得到集成面雨量预报,再运用平均绝对误差、模糊评分、正确率、TS评分、偏差分析等方法,对2020年4—10月金沙江下游面雨量预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明：多元回归集成法和BP神经网络法的预报效果总体上优于其他几种集成方法。在考虑流域面雨量的预报量级时,下游可以采用预报量级较小的模式和集成方法。集成后偏差百分比均有降低,且多元回归法和BP神经网络法对预报量级较小的模式有矫正作用。在面雨量有无、小雨和中雨预报中,多元回归法集成效果较好,在大雨量级预报中,BP神经网络法集成效果较好。这些结论可为流域面雨量预报提供参考借鉴。     

基于遗传—神经网络方法的广西台风灾害评估模型研究

选取1981—2018年影响广西且灾情记录比较完整的86个台风样本,基于台风灾害伤亡人数、直接经济损失划分灾情等级,选取致灾因子,利用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法建立广西台风灾害评估模型.结果表明:选取的台风灾害致灾因子与台风灾情等级之间具有显著的相关性,构建的遗传—神经网络集合预报模型对台风灾情预估效果较好,训练样...     

长江口南支沉积物元素地球化学分区与环境指示意义

对采自长江口南支的130个表层底质沉积物样品采用X射线荧光光谱法进行了20种常、微量元素的地球化学分析。在此基础上,应用系统聚类法对该区域进行了元素地球化学分区。研究结果表明,研究区主要可以分为两大地球化学分区:Ⅰ区以相对富集SiO2,Sr,Zr元素为典型特征,主要涵盖5 m等深线以浅的长江三角洲前缘区;Ⅱ区以相对富集Al2O3,TFe2O3(全铁),MgO,Pb元素为典型特征,涵盖了前三角洲的广大区域。从地球化学分区的空间分布来分析,这两个分区元素之间的差异反映的是沉积水动力条件与沉积介质物化性质这两个环境要素空间分布的差异性,即在研究区内,表层沉积物元素地球化学空间分布的差异性实质上反映了沉积环境空间分布的差异性。     

荆江河段洪水水位预报方法研究

研制了荆江河段各站具体的洪水水位预报方案,并对预报方案进行了检验。研究表明:利用洪水预测的上下游相关法,建立荆江河段宜昌-枝城、枝城-沙市、沙市-城陵矶-石首、枝城-城陵矶-监利等水文预报站点的上下游相应水位关系曲线,能较好的预测荆江河段各预报站点洪水水位,并且通过对1969、1981、1983年3次洪峰过程试报的结果表明,该方案具有较好的适应性。     

最优TS评分方法在逐时降水订正中的初步应用及评估

使用2020年3—9月逐时更新的CMA广东短临3 km数值模式(CMA-GD(R3)模式)1～12 h逐小时降水量资料,利用最优TS评分订正方法(OTS)对逐小时降水量进行分级订正,并分别从整体和分类型降水过程预报订正效果进行了检验和对比评估。结果表明：从整体预报订正性能来看,通过OTS方法对CMA-GD(R3)模式订正后,对于≥1 mm/h及以上量级的降水,OTS均有较好的订正能力,并且随着雨强的增加,其TS评分的改善比率越大;同时,OTS可有效减少各个预报时效的漏报率和空报率,其中漏报率减小更加明显,表现出明显的湿偏差(空报偏多)。从三类暴雨过程逐时降水预报订正效果来看,通过OTS订正之后,对于≥1 mm/h的降水,OTS对三类暴雨类型均有正的订正能力。其中在0.1 mm、1 mm、10 mm、20 mm、35 mm、50 mm 6个量级上,季风型的逐时降水预报表现最好,6个量级的TS评分值分别为0.403、0.232、0.053、0.023、0.009和0.004;在5 mm量级上锋面型的逐时降水预报表现最优,其TS值为0.102。从改善效果来看,经过OTS订正后,在1 mm量级...     

无锡五里湖环境综合整治对旅游价值的影响评估

条件价值法是目前环境经济价值货币化评估中最为广泛应用的方法.以无锡市五里湖环境综合整治为例,在对条件价值法回顾总结的基础上,通过对受益周边地区居民及外地游客的面对面直接问卷调查,对周边旅游环境的改善所带来的旅游支付意愿及影响因素进行了评估和分析,结果表明:(1)游客对五里湖综合整治后总的支付意愿为2.49亿元/年,比整治前多0.68亿元/年,占当地旅游总收入的1.49%;(2)游客的支付意愿与其收入成正比,与其年龄也基本为正相关关系,而与其受教育程度的关系比较复杂;(3)游客对五里湖景区满意度表现最差的是娱乐设施,其次是购物、住宿的便利性和水面的表观形象,表现最好的是空气质量和其安静的氛围.本文最后对本次采用的调查方法与国内外广泛应用的双边界二分式CVM进行了有益的对比和讨论,并对环境综合整治为当地带来的经济和社会绩效提出了期望,以期为其相应的政策措施的制定和环境资源资本的运作及管理提供理论依据.     

西北冰洋表层沉积物中重金属的赋存形态研究

用连续提取法对选自西北冰洋的32个表层沉积物进行分析,测定了Cr、Cu、Pb在全样中及其在P1-2、P3、P4、P5中的含量.结果表明随着离岸距离增加,水深加深,Cr、Cu、Pb含量呈增高的趋势.研究区陆架沉积物中Cr、Cu、Pb含量分别为60.66、14.77、16.65μg/g;深海沉积物中Cr、Cu、Pb的含量分别为80.40、41.70、25.62μg/g.元素赋存形态分析表明,Cr、Cu、Pb主要赋存在残渣态,残渣态中三元素的含量平均值分别为64.97、19.67、17.56μg/g,占元素总量的比例分别为93.58%、75.02%和83.76%.三元素在各赋存形态中的含量分布是:Cu为残渣态>有机质和硫化物态>铁锰氧化态>可交换及碳酸盐态;Pb和Cr则为残渣态>铁锰氧化物态>有机质硫化物态>可交换态及碳酸盐态.研究区重金属元素在不同赋存形态中的含量分布与北太平洋深海沉积物中类似.     

Correction method for full-depth current velocity with lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP)

A new method is presented to process and correct full-depth current velocity data obtained from a lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP). The analysis shows that, except near the surface, the echo intensity of a reflected sound pulse is closely correlated with the magnitude of the difference in vertical shear of velocity between downcast and upcast, indicating an error in velocity shear. The present method features the use of echo intensity for the correction of velocity shear. The correction values are determined as to fit LADCP velocity to shipboard ADCP (SADCP) and LADCP bottom-tracked velocities. The method is as follows. Initially, a profile of velocity relative to the sea surface is obtained by integrating vertical shears of velocity after low-quality data are rejected. Second, the relative velocity is fitted to the velocity at 100–800 dbar measured by SADCP to obtain an “absolute” velocity profile. Third, the velocity shear is corrected using the relationship between the errors in velocity shears and echo intensity, in order to adjust the velocity at sea bottom to the bottom-tracked velocity measured by LADCP. Finally, the velocity profile is obtained from the SADCP-fitted velocity at depths less than 800 dbar and the corrected velocity shear at depths greater than 800 dbar. This method is valid for a full-depth LADCP cast throughout which the echo intensity is relatively high (greater than 75 dB in the present analysis). Although the processed velocity may include errors of 1–2 cm s⁻¹, this method produced qualitatively good current structures in the Northeast Pacific Basin that were consistent with the deep current structures inferred from silicate distribution, and the averaged velocities were significantly different from those calculated by the Visbeck (2002) method.     

金属电极在含油模拟海水中电化学行为的研究

采用电化学阻抗和恒电位阶跃技术研究了金属铂和镍电极在含油氯化钠溶液中的电化学行为特征,测量了不同含油量体系中电化学信号的变化,并建立了相应的等效电路.实验结果表明,同样条件下多孔电极比平面电极的电化学信号响应显著,泡沫镍电极与铂黑电极相比对含油量的响应则更为明显.