全球原油贸易网络视角下的亚洲溢价与中日印韩原油潜在竞争关系

随着全球原油贸易关系的复杂化和亚洲原油需求的上升,全球能源市场的“亚洲溢价”现象成为需要关注的议题。本文基于全球石油贸易网络复杂性视角,选取1993—2018年国际原油贸易数据进行样本数据考察,通过构建复杂网络模型和潜在竞争指数,对全球原油贸易网络中的亚洲溢价现象和中日印韩四国潜在竞争力进行分析。结果表明：全球原油贸易集团分化交融,中日印韩呈现出贸易集团化的趋势。从全球原油贸易网络指标来看,中日印韩四国在全球原油贸易网络地位和影响力不断提升,有力推动了全球原油消费中心向亚太地区转移。潜在竞争指数表明,中国与日本、印度、韩国的潜在原油竞争关系呈现出不同特征,中日表现出“先强后弱”的特点,而中印、中韩表现为整体持续增强的特征。     

21世纪人地关系研究前瞻

人地关系包括人对自然的依赖性和人的能动地位 ,人与自然关系的内涵随着人类社会的发展而发生变化。人地关系研究是近代地理学发展的基础 ,地理学中流行的环境决定论、可能论、文化景观学和人类生态学等都是聚焦于人地关系研究的不同学派。地球系统科学领域的研究重心是揭示人与自然的相互作用及所应采取的对策。信息时代人地关系的特征与工业时代有较大差别。人与自然的作用方式和强度将有显著不同 ,人类将全面系统地深化对自然的认识 ,人类活动空间将发生巨大变化 ,时空观念正在发生转变。知识与科技的作用 ,正成为社会经济发展的主要驱动力。由于地球的整体性和地球各圈层的相互作用 ,许多全球环境问题成为世界各国和社会公众关切的热点。人地关系研究的重要前沿领域包括 :全球环境变化及其区域响应 ,区域可持续发展及人地关系机理调控 ,社会生态与环境伦理研究与体系构建     

A semi-analytical solution for frost heave prediction of clay soil

Frost heave is one of the main freezing problems for construction in permafrost regions.The Konrad-Morgenstern segregation potential（SP） model is being used in practice for frost heave using numerical techniques.However,the heat release from in-situ and migrated water in the freezing zone could result in some numerical instability,so the simulation of frost fringe is not ideal.In this study,a semi-analytical solution is developed for frost heave prediction of clay soil.The prediction results to the two tests with different freezing mode with clay soil agree well with the tested behavior,which indicates the feasibility of the solution.     

利用加密GNSS数据和震源机制解分析川滇块体南部现今地壳活动特性

利用多源项目获得的补充加密GNSS观测资料计算研究区高空间分辨率的GNSS水平运动速度场和应变率场,采用地震波形资料,通过CAP方法求解震源机制解,在此基础上使用阻尼区域应力反演方法分析川滇地块区域构造应力场的空间分布特征。结合主要断裂的活动特性,综合分析川滇地区的地壳形变特征。结果表明：1）块体浅部的最大主压应力与地表的最大主压应变率由SSE向转变为近SN向,呈现出较好的一致性,GNSS观测至少可反映20 km以内的地壳形变;2）川滇块体南部的东向滑移和顺时针旋转,可能受青藏高原推挤、华南块体阻挡及印度板块与欧亚板块之间北向运动速率自西向东递减而形成的右旋剪切拖拽作用的顺时针力偶的综合影响;3）川滇块体在综合力偶作用下SE向挤出和顺时针旋转的同时,受到走滑逆冲断裂带的吸收转换,使得青藏高原物质SE向挤出有限。     

1961-2004年惠州城市与乡村气温变化的对比

根据惠州城市和乡村1961-2004年逐月平均气温资料,对比分析了全球变暖背景下惠州城市和乡村的气温变化。结果表明：城市和乡村年平均气温均表现为增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.21和0.13 ℃/10 a,其中冬季变暖最明显。城市气温的增温率和增温幅度都高于乡村,城市化、工业化和人类活动引起的城市热岛效应对城市气温变化有重要影响,年和四季城市热岛效应的增温贡献率为28.9%～56.3%。1990年代中期开始的10 a与前34 a相比,城市年和四季热岛效应增温幅度平均为0.19～0.27 ℃,全球变暖效应增温幅度平均为0.17～0.73 ℃。城市热岛效应对1990年代城市气温突变有重要影响。     

长江中下游水阳江流域BZK0402孔多重地层划分及其冰后期海平面变化的沉积响应

[研究目的]开展水阳江流域标准孔BZK0402孔多重地层划分,探讨长江支流水阳江流域冰后期海平面变化的沉积响应以及古丹阳湖的成因和形成时代.[研究方法]以岩石地层为基础,在磁性地层和年代地层的双重约束下,对BZK0402孔进行多重地层划分.对比分析BZK0402孔和长江河谷、长江三角洲等邻区钻孔.[研究结果]BZK04...     

Fishery analysis using gradient-dependent optimal interpolation

The current lack of high-precision information on subsurface seawater is a constraint in fishery research. Based on Argo temperature and salinity profiles, this study applied the gradient-dependent optimal interpolation to reconstruct daily subsurface oceanic environmental information according to fishery dates and locations. The relationship between subsurface information and matching yellowfin tuna(YFT) in the western and central Pacific Ocean(WCPO) was examined using catch data from January 1...     

Effect of wellbore storage and finite thickness skin on flow to a partially penetrating well in a phreatic aquifer

An analytical model is presented for the analysis of constant flux tests conducted in a phreatic aquifer having a partially penetrating well with a finite thickness skin. The solution is derived in the Laplace transform domain for the drawdown in the pumping well, skin and formation regions. The time-domain solution in terms of the aquifer drawdown is then obtained from the numerical inversion of the Laplace transform and presented as dimensionless drawdown–time curves. The derived solution is used to investigate the effects of the hydraulic conductivity contrast between the skin and formation, in addition to wellbore storage, skin thickness, delayed yield, partial penetration and distance to the observation well. The results of the developed solution were compared with those from an existing solution for the case of an infinitesimally thin skin. The latter solution can never approximate that for the developed finite skin. Dimensionless drawdown–time curves were compared with the other published results for a confined aquifer. Positive skin effects are reflected in the early time and disappear in the intermediate and late time aquifer responses. But in the case of negative skin this is reversed and the negative skin also tends to disguise the wellbore storage effect. A thick negative skin lowers the overall drawdown in the aquifer and leads to more persistent delayed drainage. Partial penetration increases the drawdown in the case of a positive skin; however its effect is masked by the negative skin. The influence of a negative skin is pronounced over a broad range of radial distances. At distant observation points the influence of a positive skin is too small to be reflected in early and intermediate time pumping test data and consequently the type curve takes its asymptotic form.     

Comparison of two different solutions to Molodensky’s G1 term

The main purpose of this paper is comparison of two different approaches of solution to the Simple Molodensky’s Problem, the Molodensky’s Approach and the Analytical Continuation Approach, based on numerical computation. Although these approaches have been described theoretically by several authors, e.g. Molodensky et al. (1960), Heiskanen and Moritz (1967), Vaníček (1974), Moritz (1980) and Holota (1991, unpublished results) and theoretical proof of equivalence was given by Heiskanen and Moritz (1967), Moritz (1971), Ecker (1971) and Pellinen (1972, unpublished results), only very few practical experiences about the differences between particular solutions and computational efficiency exist. In this paper we compare the above two mentioned approaches in terms of the G₁-effect on quasigeoid. Both quasigeoid solutions are tested by the independent GPS/levelling approach and are also compared with the previous quasigeoid model of Slovakia where the G₁-term has been approximated using the classical terrain correction. The effect of the G₂-term is also numerically estimated, revealing that it might be significant for the precise quasigeoid determination. Some practical comments and recommendations are given at the end of the paper.