Trends in stream and river temperature

Information on past and likely future trends in water temperature from different parts of the world is collated. The potential causes of trends in the thermal regimes of streams and rivers are many, but the existing database of water temperature information is inadequate to provide a global perspective on changes during the recent, let alone the more remote, past. Data from Europe suggest that warming of up to ca. 1°C in mean river temperatures has occurred during the 20th century, but that this trend has not been continuous, is distorted by extreme hydrological events, is not correlated with simple hydrometeorological factors and has been influenced by a variety of human activities. Predictive studies indicate that an accelerated rise in stream and river temperatures will occur during the next century as a consequence of global warming. However, forecasts must be tentative because future climatic conditions are uncertain and interactions between climate, hydrological and vegetation changes are complex.     

平面SV波入射下半圆凸起地形地表运动解析解

采用波函数展开法,并借助辅助函数思想,给出了平面SV波入射下半圆凸起地形地表运动的一个解析解,并对解答的收敛性和截断计算精度进行了检验;最后通过若干算例分析了入射频率和入射角度以及凸起地形宽度对地表运动的影响. 数值结果表明,凸起地形对入射SV波具有显著的放大作用, 该放大作用可达自由场的4倍以上. 当入射频率较低时, 位移峰值多位于半空间地表; 而当入射频率较高时,位移峰值多位于凸起地形表面.      

浅圆沉积谷地对瑞雷波的散射--高频解

利用波函数展开法给出了浅圆沉积谷地对瑞雷波散射的一个高频解析解,并分析了入射频率、沉积谷地宽度和深度等因素对波散射的影响. 数值结果表明,由于沉积谷地的影响, 在入射波的近端,地表位移分布变得相对复杂,但位移幅值并不大;而在入射波远端,地表位移分布相对简单,但位移幅值却相对较大,多数情况下高于沉积地表位移幅值.      

Study on applying optimal path to land valuation

Introduction Thebasiclandpriceistheaveragepriceofev eryequalparceloreverylandclassspecifiedby thegovernment,accordingtodifferentuseof landsuchascommerce,industry,residence,etc.Asanimportantroleplayingintheurban landpricesystem,thebasiclandpriceinstructs a…     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to the study of the stability and sensitivity of the Jovian atmosphere

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further.     

Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

本文利用8个CMIP5模式的日资料,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球增温达1.5℃和2.0℃时西北太平洋夏季30～60天和10～20天季节内振荡(ISO)强度的变化情况.大多数模式都认为,无论增温水平或情景如何,预估结果均显示从中南半岛南部到菲律宾以东的带状区域内ISO强度增加,并且关键气象要素背景的变化会对...     

基于耦合场分割算法的ANSYS二次开发及其应用

耦合场分割算法是当前研究的热点之一。本文首先对比研究了瞬态热传导方程和孔压增长消散方程,提出了一种适用于ANSYS二次开发的分割算法,并对2种不同的预测值计算模式对计算稳定性的影响进行了分析。然后,据之对ANSYS温度—结构耦合场模块进行了开发,形成了岩土工程有效应力计算模块。数值实验表明,这种方法具有较高的计算精度和良好的计算稳定性,并且能够充分利用现有程序资源,具有较高的工程应用价值。     

GPS在鞍山市城区地壳形变监测中的应用

GPS作为全球卫星定位系统已经成功地应用于军事、交通、大地测量、地壳形变监测等方面。本文所要研究的是将GPS技术应用于地壳形变监测中所采取的测量方法及精度分析。     

基于投入产出理论的水资源研究进展及水资源管理展望

近年来,气候变化背景下的水资源问题得到日益增加的关注,其研究从水资源短缺、供需平衡等内容转向适应可持续发展的综合研究.基于投入产出理论的水资源研究,从系统循环的角度分析资源的流动性和持续性,能够揭示水资源-经济社会复合系统中各要素的内在数量关系,提出面向可持续发展的水资源价值观和方法论.首先,从模型拓展和实际应用两条主...