Impact of the Pacific–Japan Teleconnection Pattern on July Sea Fog over the Northwestern Pacific: Interannual Variations and Global Warming Effect

The northwestern Pacific(NWP) is a fog-prone area, especially the ocean east of the Kuril Islands. The present study analyzes how the Pacific–Japan(PJ) teleconnection pattern influences July sea fog in the fog-prone area using independent datasets. The covariation between the PJ index and sea fog frequency(SFF) index in July indicates a close correlation, with a coefficient of 0.62 exceeding the 99% confidence level. Composite analysis based on the PJ index, a case study, and model analysis based on GFDL-ESM2 M, show that in high PJ index years the convection over the east of the Philippines strengthens and then triggers a Rossby wave, which propagates northward to maintain an anticyclonic anomaly in the midlatitudes,indicating a northeastward shift of the NWP subtropical high. The anticyclonic anomaly facilitates the formation of relatively stable atmospheric stratification or even an inversion layer in the lower level of the troposphere, and strengthens the horizontal southerly moisture transportation from the tropical–subtropical oceans to the fog-prone area. On the other hand, a greater meridional SST gradient over the cold flank of the Kuroshio Extension, due to ocean downwelling, is produced by the anticyclonic wind stress anomaly. Both of these two aspects are favorable for the warm and humid air to cool, condense, and form fog droplets, when air masses cross the SST front. The opposite circumstances occur in low PJ index years, which are not conducive to the formation of sea fog. Finally, a multi-model ensemble mean projection reveals a prominent downward trend of the PJ index after the 2030 s, implying a possible decline of the SFF in this period.     

Trends of Regional Precipitation and Their Control Mechanisms during 1979–2013

Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle.     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

月球构造新认识：基于60m高精度全月月形图的月球构造形态学研究

一直以来月球上都没有发现像地球上一样的全球板块构造现象,被认为是属于单板块构造的行星体并且是不活动的。随着月球地形探测精度的提高,人们逐渐发现了一些地质现象表明月球并不像之前想象的一样是不活动的。高精度的月形数据显示出了月球上除了存在众所周知的(撞击作用产生的)复杂的撞击构造外,仍然存在许多可能由内生作用产生的构造特征:如裂谷、山脊、火山群等。本文利用最新高精度月球激光高度数据(LOLA数据)建立了全月60m(相当于7秒网格)高精度月形图。由于数据量超大(TB级别),作者编写了基于并行架构的集群计算处理代码,其计算效率提高了近300倍。基于这些图件,作者在全球范围内找出许多重要的构造现象,并根据其构造及地质特征进行分类研究。研究结果表明并不像之前认识一样,月球上的确存在许多地质构造体是由月球的内生地质作用所产生,并建立对于月球结构和构造的新认识。此外,通过对比发现,像地球上全球尺度的线性山脉只是板块构造运动的结果;另一方面,在无板块构造的行星上,就像月球一样,会产生大面积的高地(月陆)和低地(月海地区),这种地质现象很有可能是行星地壳岩浆演化的直接结果。在文章最后,作者还将制作出的60m分辨率的全月月形系列图件附后并公开,以方便其他科研人员进一步开展相关研究;并以此敬献中国地质科学院60周年庆典。     

基于SDOG-ESSG的地球系统元胞自动机框架及其应用试验

元胞自动机结构简单且具备模拟复杂系统的能力,已被广泛应用于大气、流体力学、地球物理等领域。然而,现有元胞自动机以欧氏空间为约束进行地球系统过程模拟,忽略了地球重力等天然约束,导致计算过程中元胞状态的传递方向与真实运动的趋势方向不相符,一定程度上扭曲了最终的模拟结果。本文提出了地球系统元胞自动机这一概念,并从元胞表达及构建、邻居模型等方面设计了基于SDOG-ESSG格网的地球系统元胞自动机框架。由于演化规则取决于不同的应用,因此本文进一步以地壳的热传递为例,通过对热力学方程离散化设计了相应的演化规则。最后,借助公开的数据源开展了地壳热传递元胞自动机模拟的初步试验,并与一定区域下的数值模拟结果展开了比对。试验表明,与数值模拟方法相比,本文方法的模拟结果相对误差控制在27%以内,具备一定程度的可行性,可作为地球系统过程模拟的一种新思路。     

一种改进的基于 BDS 三频非差观测的周跳实时探测与修复模型

BDS三频观测条件下可以组合得到具有优良特性的虚拟载波观测量,有利于改善非差观测数据的周跳实时探测与修复。文中提出一种基于BDS三频非差数据的周跳实时探测与修复模型:首先,采用消电离层无几何HMW组合观测量探测和修复EWL周跳;然后,将经过修复的EWL观测量与WL组合消除几何相关项,忽略电离层延迟残差进而确定WL周跳;最后采用经过修复的WL观测量与NL组合形成无几何观测量,并通过优化载波相位组合确定电离层延迟的变化量以探测和计算NL周跳,并通过简单变换得到原始载波观测量的周跳值。通过实测BDS三频数据对模型可行性进行验证分析,结果表明,即使在30s的采样率以及电离层活动活跃条件下,该模型都可有效实时探测和修复各类周跳。     

重力场数学拟合模型解的影响因素探究

为了提高地球重力场模型不适定方程求解的精度,该文采用谱分析方法从级数展开阶数、数据采样率及数据缺失量3个方面探索影响数学拟合效果的根本因素:从常用的三角级数及勒让德级数模型出发,引出重力场拟合模型球谐函数模型,观察在改变级数展开阶数、数据采样率及数据缺失量等情况下所对应设计矩阵谱结构的变化,并从微观上研究影响误差分配的有关因素及最小奇异值对误差的决定性作用,为探求重力场模型解不准的原因及实现更高精度的全球重力场模型的建立提供参考。     

水库群水沙调控的单-多目标调度模型及其应用

为缓解内蒙古河段"二级悬河"形势,以黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段为研究对象,以龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库为调控主体,开展黄河上游水沙调控研究。建立了输沙量、发电量最大的单目标模型以及多目标模型;分别采用自迭代模拟算法、逐次逼近动态规划算法(DPSA)和改进的非支配排序遗传优化算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型;设置了初始、常规、优化和联合优化4种方案。通过实例计算,联合优化调度方案的区间总冲刷量达到了0.38亿t,梯级发电量148.22亿kW·h。该方案以较小的电量损失换来了输沙量的大幅度增加,水沙调控效果显著,推荐为最优方案。研究成果量化了水沙调控效果和各目标间的转化规律,为开展黄河上游水沙调控提供了决策依据,具有重要的应用价值和实际指导意义。     

Optimal routing for waste collection: a case study in Singapore

ABSTRACT

To collect and dispose growing amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) changed to be a hot topic along with the rapid urbanization in past decades. Cities are more and more dependent on the incineration instead of landfilling due to the cost-efficiency and environmental concerns. Considering the limited number of incineration plants and complicated situation of transportation in both spatial and temporal dimensions in different cities, the optimal routing for waste collection turns to be meaningful research topic. In this research, the ant colony optimization (ACO)-based multi-objective routing model coupled with min-max model and Dijkstra’s algorithm is proposed to address the question of which route to take from these waste-generating points to the target incineration plant(s) considering travel time, accident probability (black spots), and population exposure, so as to support the routing decision-making. The model is successfully implemented in Singapore and the effectiveness of the model has also been justified. Besides, few limitations of this research have also been discussed, some of which would also be the future directions of our research, especially the design and integration of a web-based routing decision-making support system.     

When Is Asia?

Recently, in geography and related disciplines, there has been a call to generate conceptual frameworks from the Global South. Such a call does not imply cataloging the diversity and plurality of the world but rather requires new understandings of relationalities and transformations. In this article, I contribute to these ongoing endeavors by thinking from Asia. In doing so, I interpret Asia not as a bounded geographical location but instead as interconnected space. In particular, I pay attention to how such interconnections reference Asian models of development, thereby creating a politics of futurity. A study of the making of Asian futures allows a broader understanding of the renewal of development in a rearranged south–north world.