Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

     

GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。      

全球寒武系四统划分框架正式确立

国际地层委员会最近陆续发布了2005和2006年版《国际地层表》(http://www.stratigraphy.org/cheu.pdf),这两张新表较以往各版最为突出的变动是将寒武系分为四个统和十个阶,不再采用国际地学界沿用了近一百七十年的上、中、下3统的传统划分方法。这一改写是全球地层学的重大事件     

地理空间信息网格特征解析

地理空间信息网格这一重要的基础设施具有物理特征、基本特征和多方参与性等若干特征。详细分析、讨论地理空间信息网格的这些特征,对地理空间信息网格技术研究、地理空间信息资源共享、更加广泛地应用以及地理空间信息网格建设具有重要意义。     

地理信息技术发展的新方向——网格GIS初探

网格GIS是网格及网格计算技术与GIS相结合而形成的新的GIS发展方向,具有空间资源共享、海量空间数据存储与处理、异地协同工作与异构系统支持等功能,在城市管理、房地产管理、资源勘测与调查等方面具有十分重要的作用。本文在分析网格GIS的概念及其特征的基础上,提出了网格GIS的四层结构体系,并简要介绍了网格GIS实现的关键技术。     

Trends in stream and river temperature

Information on past and likely future trends in water temperature from different parts of the world is collated. The potential causes of trends in the thermal regimes of streams and rivers are many, but the existing database of water temperature information is inadequate to provide a global perspective on changes during the recent, let alone the more remote, past. Data from Europe suggest that warming of up to ca. 1°C in mean river temperatures has occurred during the 20th century, but that this trend has not been continuous, is distorted by extreme hydrological events, is not correlated with simple hydrometeorological factors and has been influenced by a variety of human activities. Predictive studies indicate that an accelerated rise in stream and river temperatures will occur during the next century as a consequence of global warming. However, forecasts must be tentative because future climatic conditions are uncertain and interactions between climate, hydrological and vegetation changes are complex.     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

空间位置服务平台的构架设计与服务接口实现

通过空间位置服务平台对位置服务领域中众多复杂的空间信息数据进行有效地整合和资源共享, 可以为用户提供综合性的位置应用和服务.利用基于空间信息网格(spatial information grid, SIG) 的分布式思想对空间位置服务平台的架构进行了模型设计和技术实现, 完成了地图数据和定位查询的分布式存储和检索.平台服务接口满足开放位置服务(openlocation service, OpenLS) 规范, 利用XML进行信息编码, 通过HTTP进行数据传输, 介绍了相应的接口内容和调用示例.针对定位信息的更新和传递提出了一种新的基于Push的主动通知机制, 提供与各种定位接口的数据转换和消息处理能力, 高效地实现了位置应用和服务平台之间的消息传递.最后结合MAPGIS平台和CDMA手机定位技术进行了原型系统的实现, 验证了平台理论模型和服务接口的可用性.      

Implementation of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme on a quasi-uniform overset grid on a sphere

The semi-Lagrangian advection scheme is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset （Yin-Yang） grid on the sphere. The Yin-Yang grid is a newly developed grid system in spherical geometry with two perpendicularly-oriented latitude-longitude grid components （called Yin and Yang respectively） that overlapp each other, and this effectively avoids the coordinate singularity and the grid convergence near the poles. In this overset grid, the way of transferring data between the Yin and Yang components is the key to maintaining the accuracy and robustness in numerical solutions. A numerical interpolation for boundary data exchange, which maintains the accuracy of the original advection scheme and is computationally efficient, is given in this paper. A standard test of the solid-body advection proposed by Williamson is carried out on the Yin-Yang grid. Numerical results show that the quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid can get around the problems near the poles, and the numerical accuracy in the original semi-Lagrangian scheme is effectively maintained in the Yin-Yang grid.     

格网计算法在空间格局分析中的应用--以贵州景观空间格局分析为例

格网地图与格网计算都是基于空间坐标系统来描述、分析、虚拟区域地理现象的有效方法之一。在空间格局分析应用中具有广阔的前景。景观类型的格网地图不仅能反映它们的空间分布,还能反映它们各自占据的生态空间情况。同时,格网地图还能将景观的空间异质性定量化、空间化和图形可视化表达。在格网地图和格网分析法的基础上,可以利用空间自相关分析、半方差分析等空间统计分析方法对景观的空间格局作进一步的深入研究。