沙漠化:从圈层耦合到全球变化

从沙漠化概念提出伊始 ,沙漠化成因机理的研究就一直成为学术界关注的焦点。沙漠化过程究竟有多少是由自然因素所致 ,多少是由人类活动所为 ,诸因素与沙漠化之间有何内在关系 ,沙尘天气发生发展过程及其诱因等 ,当属地球系统科学应解决的难题。文章从全球变化的角度 ,将沙漠系统视作一种类生命的非线性动力系统 ,指出沙漠化源于地球表层系统各圈层之间复杂的相关与耦合作用 :气候变化是控制沙漠进退的首要因素 ;陆表水持续亏损则是导致干旱、半干旱地区沙漠化发展的直接原因 ;岩石圈构造运动塑造了不同的地形地貌单元 ,奠定了沙漠分布的地理格局 ;人类的不当活动和气候变化引起的生物生产力的衰退及土地覆盖的破坏 ,造成了现代沙漠化的快速扩张。     

与全球变化有关的几个北极海洋地质问题

极地区域是全球变化研究的重点区域 ,在北极地区与全球变化有关的地质问题主要是北极地区的海陆变化对全球变化的影响 ,以及全球变化在地层中的记录。这涉及到北极形态变化及与其它大洋沟通的水道开闭情况 ,地形起伏对大气、大洋环流的影响 ,地壳升降与海平面变化对河流流量和海岸稳定性的影响 ,气体水合物及有机碳等变化对全球碳循环的影响 ,以及这些影响与气候变化信息在极地沉积物中的记录。文章在对上述影响及海洋地质研究状况进行探讨后 ,又简要介绍了中国的首次北极考察海洋地质研究状况     

Competitive Adjustment and Advancement in Global Commodity Chains II: The Case of the Singapore Garment Industry

This is the second part of a contribution to the debate on the possibilities of leveraging economic globalisation — through incorporation in international production networks and global commodity chains (GCCs) — as a strategy for developing countries to industrialise and advance their position in the world economy. In the first part, we analysed the experience of the East Asian apparel industry and addressed the issues of sustaining positions, upgrading to more rewarding roles, and advancing to less dependent positions within production networks and GCCs. We developed an analytical framework at both the firm and industry levels, and subsequently identified alternative firm- and industry-level strategies and trajectories. The present paper deals with these issues in the context of the Singapore apparel industry. Based on extensive empirical research, we demonstrate that although the East Asian experience of upgrading and repositioning within the GCC is to some extent emulated in the case of the Singapore apparel industry, the outcomes have been less favourable in terms of the depth, extent and strength of these trajectories. The differing outcomes can be explained in terms of different (systemic) conditions in the Singapore business environment, including the agency of local players, the geography of sourcing networks, and the role of the state and prevailing business attitudes. Our conclusions merit continued attention in both research and policy circles on the development of capabilities at the firm level, and the role of local business and institutional environments in local industry development processes under globalisation.     

Global heat budget, plate tectonics and climatic change

For the past 2000 Ma, the temperature of the Earth's surface has fluctuated around a mean similar to that of today, although individual locations have undergone long-term changes of ∼30°C at different times in different places. Water bodies absorb at least five times as much solar radiation as land surfaces, and ocean currents transport the excess heat absorbed in the tropics towards the poles. Changes in the distribution of land and sea due to plate tectonics explain the major temperature fluctuations (>25°C) around the globe in the last 350 Ma, and are first-order controls. Large-scale changes in ocean currents and thermohaline circulations are probably second-order controls (15–25°C). The Milankovitch orbital cycles are third-order controls producing variations in air temperature of the order of 10°C, while massive volcanic eruptions and changes in carbon dioxide are amongst the fourth-order controls producing minor perturbations (<5°C). The major climatic fluctuations are continuous but regional in effect and not global. Extraterrestrial factors may not cause major changes in climate when viewed from a geological perspective.     

我国制造业集群分布现状及其发展特征

目前，在我国很多地区，例如长江三角洲和珠江三角洲，以个别市、县、镇或村为范围，集中某种产品的生产所形成的制造业集群表现出极强的活力和竞争力。集群中的很多企业根据不同技术能力，纷纷进入了全球价值链，已经使中国成为跨国公司控制之下的“世界工厂”。文章从目前局限性的资料出发，将这一现象的分布现状进行了分析，并对其发展特征进行了描述。认为，在新型工业化道路中，企业只有在本地舍作和结网，加强创新，才能有效地插入全球价值链，参与国际竞争。为此，需要通过政策的支持，鼓励合作的信用环境，使价值链上的各级企业以及利益相关者进行合作。     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

中国东北样带NDVI的季节变化及其与气候因子的关系

NDVI是研究大尺度生态学问题一个非常有用的指数,它可以为估价全球植被动态模型提供足够的信息.中国东北样带是全球变化研究中首选样带之一,本文分析了分辨率为1km×1km的NDVI年内季节变化的两个特征值:年均NDVI(NDVI-I)和NDVI年内极差(NDVI-MM)在样带内5种不同植被类型间的变化及其与年平均气温和降水量之间的相关关系.结果表明,NDVI具有明显的季节变化格局,NDVI-I和NDVI-MM由东到西均呈下降趋势,NDVI-I与降水量具有显著的线性回归关系,降水量能够解释NDVI-I和NDVI-MM空间变异的绝大部分.这一结果说明NDVI反映了植被沿环境梯度的时空变化格局,可用于监测样带植被对气候变化的响应.