Convective Storm VIL and Lightning Nowcasting Using Satellite and Weather Radar Measurements Based on Multi-Task Learning Models

Convective storms and lightning are among the most important weather phenomena that are challenging to forecast. In this study, a novel multi-task learning(MTL) encoder-decoder U-net neural network was developed to forecast convective storms and lightning with lead times for up to 90 min, using GOES-16 geostationary satellite infrared brightness temperatures(IRBTs), lightning flashes from Geostationary Lightning Mapper(GLM), and vertically integrated liquid(VIL)from Next Generation Weather Radar...     

自动气象站各要素传感器检定结果的不确定度分析

自动气象站是由各要素的传感器和数据采集器组成的。随着时间的推移, 各传感器和数据采集器的测量误差将会发生漂移。为确保各要素观测数据的准确、可靠并具有可比性, 定期开展自动气象站的检定和校准是非常重要的。通过检定将各要素系统误差控制在允许范围内, 并对检定结果进行不确定度分析, 是考察检定结果可信程度的重要步骤。本文依据自动气象站检定规程及JJF1059-1999《测量不确定度评定与表示》的要求, 并根据检定数据, 进行自动气象站的各要素检定结果的不确定度分析, 对自动气象站检定结果可信度评估具有指导意义。     

GOES-16大气温度产品资料同化在一次飓风预报中的应用研究

为评价静止卫星大气温度廓线产品资料同化对飓风预报的影响,以2018年飓风“迈克尔”为例,选用GOES-16温度廓线产品,开展静止卫星资料同化及其对飓风预报影响的研究。首先,通过评估温度廓线产品精度,选取质量较好的高度层并以统计的各层均方根误差作为观测误差用于同化试验;然后,利用WRF-3DVar系统进行不同稀疏化及不同同化频次的循环同化敏感性试验;最后,利用WRF模式开展24 h数值预报。试验结果表明,在飓风“迈克尔”期间温度廓线在200~1 000 hPa之间的误差在2 K以内,将水平分辨率稀疏化为模式分辨率的6倍且循环同化频次为6 h时同化该资料对模式的初始场有最为合理的改进,从大尺度环境场上看使模式具备更合理的环流形势,能够有效提高对飓风的路径及强度的预报效果,更准确地模拟降水落区及美国佛罗里达州等降水关键区域的雨强。      

小倾角LEO多星天基平台光学跟踪GEO精密定轨

针对地基卫星测控系统(Tracking Telemetry and Command, TT&C)系统对地球静止轨道(Geostation-\lk ary Earth Orbit, GEO)卫星在空间和时间覆盖上的局限性, 提出小倾角低地球轨道(Low Earth Orbit, LEO)多星组网天基平台对GEO卫星进行跟踪定轨的方法. 根据空间环境和光学可视条件对仿真数据进行筛选以模拟真实的观测场景, 利用光学测角数据, 使用数值方法对GEO卫星的轨道进行确定. 结果与参考轨道进行重叠对比, 在平台轨道精度5 m、测量精度5rq\rq、 定轨弧长12 h的情况下, 两颗LEO卫星对GEO卫星进行跟踪定轨的精度可达到千米量级, 4颗LEO卫星对GEO目标进行跟踪定轨的精度可达到百米量级. 随着LEO组网卫星数量的增加, 定轨精度得到了较大的提高.     

河流水情要素遥感研究进展

河流是促进地貌形成和演化的重要因素,也是地球上最重要的淡水资源之一。河流的水体范围、水位/水深、流量、水质和冰情等水情要素在水资源动态监测和水文生态环境保护等研究中具有至关重要的作用。通过水文站观测河流可获得站点上的水情信息,但该方式在财力、物力方面均耗费巨大。同时,对于日益增长的河流水情信息需求,迫切需要一种能够快捷、准确补充河流实测数据的方法。遥感凭借全方位、多时相的对地观测能力极大地提升了河流水情信息获取的效率,已广泛应用于多尺度水情监测、无资料流域水文模拟等多个方面,取得了丰硕的研究成果。因此,有必要对近年来遥感应用于河流水情要素反演所取得的进展进行归纳、总结和展望,以期进一步促进遥感数据和方法在该领域的应用。论文以“河流水情要素遥感”为主题,系统归纳了河流水体遥感提取的常用传感器及方法、水位/水深遥感反演方法、河道流量遥感估算、河流水质及河冰遥感监测的研究进展,详细归纳了利用光学/微波遥感等不同类型的遥感手段获取河流水体范围、水位、水深的优势与不足,总结得出了河流水情要素遥感研究的数据、方法及应用方面的主要结论：① 新型遥感数据在河流水情要素监测中的应用愈加广泛,在空间分辨率、时间分辨率或光谱分辨率等方面不断突破,进一步丰富了河流水情要素研究的数据来源;② 多数中低空间分辨率光学影像依旧面临混合像元影响水体提取精度的问题,合成孔径雷达影像也存在数据处理算法开发难度大的问题,细小河流及非开阔水体的提取方法仍需探索;③ 大数据和云计算技术的发展为实现大尺度、长时序的河流水情要素高时空分辨率遥感监测提供了高效手段。     

Short-term variability of suspended sediment and phytoplankton in Tampa Bay,Florida: Observations from a coastal oceanographic tower and ocean color satellites

We examined short-term phytoplankton and sediment dynamics in Tampa Bay with data collected between 8 December 2004 and 17 January 2005 from optical, oceanographic, and meteorological sensors mounted on a coastal oceanographic tower and from satellite remote sensing. Baseline phytoplankton (chlorophyll-a, Chl) and sediment concentrations (particle backscattering coefficient at 532 nm, bbp(532)) were of the order of 3.7 mg m⁻³ and 0.07 m⁻¹, respectively, during the study period. Both showed large fluctuations dominated by semidiurnal and diurnal frequencies associated with tidal forcing. Three strong wind events (hourly averaged wind speed >8.0 m s⁻¹) generated critical bottom shear stress of >0.2 Pa and suspended bottom sediments that were clearly observed in concurrent MODIS satellite imagery. In addition, strong tidal current or swells could also suspend sediments in the lower Bay. Sediments remained suspended in the water column for 2–3 days after the wind events. Moderate Chl increases were observed after sediment resuspension with a lag time of ˜1–2 days, probably due to release of bottom nutrients and optimal light conditions associated with sediment resuspension and settling. Two large increases in Chl with one Chl > 12.0 mg m⁻³ over ˜2 days, were observed at neap tides. For the study site and period, because of the high temporal variability in phytoplankton and sediment concentrations, a monthly snapshot can be different by −50% to 200% from the monthly “mean” chlorophyll and sediment conditions. The combination of high-frequency observations from automated sensors and synoptic satellite imagery, when available, is an excellent complement to limited field surveys to study and monitor water quality parameters in estuarine environments.     

改进单组CEI基线对卫星定轨精度的影响研究

短基线相位干涉测量是一种被动测角卫星定轨跟踪方法,测量精度高。利用该方法采用单组正交双基线对静地卫星的定轨精度进行了仿真计算,并分别采用物理延长东西基线和东西基线阵列两种方法来考察对卫星定轨精度的改进情况。仿真结果表明,物理延长东西基线可以显著提高定轨精度;若星下点与跟踪网相距较远,则东西向基线阵列可显著提高定轨精度,且该方法对我国北斗卫星群的整体定轨效果很好,能进行几十米级的定轨。     

Does measuring azimuthal variations in sap flux lead to more reliable stand transpiration estimates?

Stand transpiration (E) estimated using the sap‐flux method includes uncertainty induced by variations in sap flux (F) within a tree (i.e. radial and azimuthal variations) and those between trees. Unlike radial variations, azimuthal variations are not particularly systematic (i.e. higher/lower F is not always recorded for a specific direction). Here, we present a theoretical framework to address the question on how to allocate a limited number of sensors to minimize uncertainty in E estimates. Specifically, we compare uncertainty in E estimates for two cases: (1) measuring F for two or more directions to cover azimuthal variations in F and (2) measuring F for one direction to cover between‐tree variations in F. The framework formulates the variation in the probability density function for E (σ_E) based on F recorded in m different azimuthal directions (e.g. north, east, south and west). This formula allows us to determine the m value that minimizes σ_E. This study applied the framework to F data recorded for a 55‐year‐old Cryptomeria japonica stand. σ_E for m = 1 was found to be less than the values for m = 2, 3 and 4. Our results suggest that measuring F for one azimuthal direction provides more reliable E estimates than measuring F for two or more azimuthal directions for this stand, given a limited number of sensors. Application of this framework to other datasets helps us decide how to allocate sensors most effectively. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate Analytical Theory of Satellite Orbit Prediction Presented in Spherical Coordinates Frame

A comparative review of analytic theories for the motion of Earth satellites in quasi-circular orbits written in the spherical coordinate frame is presented. The theory of motion is developed for satellites in quasi-circular and quasi-equatorial orbits subjected to geopotential, luni-solar and solar radiation pressure force perturbations. The intermediate orbit is Keplerian and the equations of motion are solved by the Lyapunov–Poincaré small parameter method. Both resonant and non-resonant cases are considered. The results can be useful for the development of a complete theory of weakly eccentric orbits.     

风云静止卫星地表温度产品空值数据稳健修复

静止卫星地表温度数据是研究昼夜气候和环境变化的重要参数。但现有发布的静止卫星地表温度数据由于受到云等大气因素的影响,往往出现数值缺失现象。针对该问题,提出基于昼夜变化模型的风云静止卫星地表温度空值数据的稳健修复方法。由多项式、傅里叶函数和高斯函数构建新的昼夜变化模型,并利用LevenbergMarquardt算法进行模型参数的求解与优化,进而实现空值修复。以风云2号F星数据(FY-2F)为例,模拟不同类型的像元缺失情况进行修复,并将不同模型修复结果与真实温度值比较,同时也对真实数据进行了测试。结果表明:本文提出的修复方法能有效对温度空值数据修复,且优于传统方法。