异常北折台风“洛坦”与异常西折台风“奥玛”路径的对比及预报

选取在台湾岛附近发生异常北折的台风“洛坦”和异常西折的台风“奥玛”, 对其环流形势进行对比分析, 之后将全风场分解为气候场和瞬时扰动风场, 应用扩展的β-平流模型对“洛坦”和“奥玛”的异常偏折路径进行预报尝试。结果表明: 1)两个台风的500hPa全风场分析表明, 副高及槽前西南气流为“奥玛”异常北折的主要影响系统; 而“洛坦”北侧的大陆高压与副高合并加强有利于其西折。2)扰动风场的分布表明, 北折“洛坦”南侧的西南风逐渐增大, 东侧的东南风逐渐转变为南风, 在异常偏折时刻形成一条向北的“输送带”利于其北折; 西折“奥玛”在其异常偏折过程中其北侧一直维持着一个反气旋性环流, 向西输送分量逐渐增加, 利于其西折。3)利用扩展的β-平流模型对两个台风路径进行预报, 发现在综合考虑气候态和扰动场时, “洛坦”的路径预报效果最好, 而考虑瞬时扰动场时“奥玛”的西折预报效果最好。     

Design sensitivity analysis for vertical free vibration of hull girder

This paper presents a calculation method of derivatives of natural frequencies and mode shapes to parameters affecting vertical hull girder vibration based on design sensitivity analysis. The method premises free vibration analysis of hull girder using the transfer matrix method. Governing sensitivity equation is derived from the direct differentiation of state vector and transfer matrix to design variables. Derivatives of natural frequencies and mode shapes are determined after two trial calculations of the equation. By using the obtained derivatives, the changes of natural frequencies can be rationally and efficiently predicted in case of ship design modification and loading variation.     

城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的核心算法进展及技术创新

交通与土地利用的协调发展是缓解城市交通拥堵、提升交通水平的关键。城市交通与土地利用一体化模型则是分析和模拟城市交通与土地利用相互作用过程的重要科学支撑。多年来不同国家学者已研发出一些操作模型,并用于城市空间政策的制定研究,但这些模型的核心算法仍需进一步升级完善。本文首先梳理了当前已有主流模型的理论特征,解析了这些模型的核心算法发展及其优缺点;然后针对关键算法的不足,提出新的综合均衡模型,就区位可达性、用地混合度与强度、出行成本3个关键变量的核心算法展开讨论;最后,进一步形成模型各子模块的算法创新,包括考虑增量离散选择过程的居住与就业区位决策模块、细分房地产类型并将土地开发结果动态反馈至城市用地演变的房地产开发模块、采用改进的阻抗函数、小汽车拥有情况和动态出行成本的交通综合模型。本文对于定量化分析模拟城市复杂系统、研发我国城市交通与土地利用一体化模型具有一定的参考价值。     

Simpson’s Paradox in Natural Resource Evaluation

Reversals of statistical relationships, when two or more groups of data in a cross tabulation are aggregated, were first revealed more than a century ago. The reversal was later named Simpson’s paradox after his reversal examples in a seminal paper drew the attention of the statistical community. However, almost all the published cases have been in sociology and biomedical statistics. Does Simpson’s reversal occur in geosciences? Various examples from petroleum geology and reservoir modeling will be shown in this paper. Boundary conditions for such a reversal will be discussed under a broader framework of sampling analysis. Ecological inference bias, change of support problem, modifiable areal unit problem, and reference class problem will be discussed in relation to the Simpson’s paradox in the framework of spatial statistics. It will be demonstrated that the traditional interpretation of the paradox as a result of disproportional sampling based on a contingency table is not always true in the framework of spatial statistics, and the reversal while theoretically benign is inferentially treacherous. Therefore, emphasis will be on the discussion of combining statistical and scientific inferences in geologic modeling and hydrocarbon resource evaluation under various sampling schemes or support effect with or without a Simpson’s reversal.     

边坡稳定模糊随机可靠度分析

考虑边坡稳定评价中存在的两种不确定性--模糊性和随机性,以模糊随机变量为基本变量,建立模糊随机功能函数和模糊随机极限方程,得到模糊可靠指标和模糊可靠度。本文给出模糊随机可靠度的计算方法,给出实例并与经典随机可靠度比较,得到更合理的结果。     

基于多层递阶方法的边坡位移预测

提出采用多层建模法预报边坡位移。该方法把动态系统的状态(或输出)预报问题分为系统的时变参数预报和在此基础上对系统的状态(或输出)预报两部分,可充分考虑被预报系统的时变特性。给出了多层递阶的建模和预报方法。工程实例表明该方法有较好的预测精度和实用价值。     

华南地区地壳厚度变化及对成矿类型的制约:来自卫星重力数据的约束

华南地区是中国金属矿产资源的“大粮仓”,分布有多个多金属成矿带。多金属成矿带的形成常伴随着地下特殊的深部背景和过程,通过莫霍面深度的计算,对华南地区的地壳厚薄变化所反映的壳幔耦合关系进行研究,可为探索华南地区地下巨量金属资源的形成与演变过程提供参考。本文首先基于球坐标的重力解算方法对高阶卫星重力场模型EIGEN-6C4的数据进行校正,得到华南地区的卫星布格重力异常。然后采用改进的Parker-Oldenburg方法进行变密度界面反演,获得华南地区莫霍面起伏特征。最后结合区内不同成矿带的范围和前人发表的地质、地球化学等资料,探讨华南地区不同成矿带的成矿物质来源与莫霍面起伏的关系。认为长江中下游和钦杭东段处于莫霍面隆起区域的成矿带,幔源物质对其成矿作用起主导地位,形成以铜、铁为主的多金属矿床;南岭、武夷、钦杭西段及鄂西—湘西位于莫霍面隆-陷交替区域的成矿带,成矿与壳、幔源物质的相互作用密切相关,最终形成钨、锡、金、银、铅锌等多金属矿床。     

可变径全圆针梁台车在TBM施工隧洞衬砌中的应用

TBM开挖隧洞,由于刀盘及刀具的限制,目前开挖完的隧洞为同一直径,为了保证后期衬砌施工中结构的强度,需要对不同的围岩类别采取不同的衬砌厚度。研究表明,采取可变径全圆针梁台车进行这方面的衬砌,具有明显的优越性。本文基于吉林引松供水工程项目,论述了可变径全圆针梁台车在TBM施工隧洞衬砌中的应用。     

复杂环境中大规模桩筏基础的优化设计方法研究

变刚度优化设计对于复杂环境中的大规模桩筏基础始终是一个重要难题。基于有限元分析提出一种两阶段优化设计方法,该方法首先根据传统均匀布桩方案的桩顶应力分布对群桩进行分区,然后依据每个子区域桩顶应力之间的关系确定基桩数量调整系数,最后通过调整桩间距来改变各子区域的基桩数量,从而实现变刚度优化设计。运用该方法对多层土体中承担非均匀上部结构荷载的大规模桩筏基础进行变刚度优化设计,计算结果表明优化设计后筏板的差异沉降、平均整体弯矩和群桩顶部的差异应力均显著降低。该方法计算简单,应用范围广,且不受复杂土层条件、非均匀上部结构荷载以及桩基础规模大小形状的限制。     

A Strain Rate Dependent Constitutive Model for the Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation Shale in the Fuling Gas Field of the Sichuan Basin,China

Shale, as a kind of brittle rock, often exhibits different nonlinear stress-strain behavior, failure and time-dependent behavior under different strain rates. To capture these features, this work conducted triaxial compression tests under axial strain rates ranging from 5×10?6 s?1 to 1×10?3 s?1. The results show that both elastic modulus and peak strength have a positive correlation relationship with strain rates. These strain rate-dependent mechanical behaviors of shale are originated from damage growth, which is described by a damage parameter. When axial strain is the same, the damage parameter is positively correlated with strain rate. When strain rate is the same, with an increase of axial strain, the damage parameter decreases firstly from an initial value (about 0.1 to 0.2), soon reaches its minimum (about 0.1), and then increases to an asymptotic value of 0.8. Based on the experimental results, taking yield stress as the cut-off point and considering damage variable evolution, a new measure of micro-mechanical strength is proposed. Based on the Lemaitre’s equivalent strain assumption and the new measure of micro-mechanical strength, a statistical strain-rate dependent damage constitutive model for shale that couples physically meaningful model parameters was established. Numerical back-calculations of these triaxial compression tests results demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce the primary features of the strain rate dependent mechanical behavior of shale.