渤海海域埕岛低凸起东部南区新生代断裂系统及油气分布的控制作用

埕岛低凸起东部南区新生代受控于伸展与走滑作用,断裂构造复杂,传统认为中深层北东向与近东西向断层属于同期同沉积断层。针对这一观点及引起的问题,利用钻井和地震资料,运用构造地质理论解析断裂系统。研究区主要发育正断层、走滑正断层两种类型,断开层位有基底—东营组、平原组—东营组、平原组—基底三种情况,现今断裂以东营组与馆陶组之间的区域不整合面为时限划分为两期断裂系统。早期断裂主要切开基底—东下段,属于同沉积断层;晚期断裂主要切开平原组—东营组,可断达基底,其发育受早期断裂制约。北东向与近东西向断层分别属于早晚两期断裂系统,对油气分布各起关键性控制作用:先期基底升降引起的伸展作用形成北东向断层,控制洼槽地貌与深水重力流沉积环境,发育了连片的层状砂质碎屑流;后期郯庐断裂右行走滑派生了近东西向雁列断层,断层面既充当储层上倾方向的遮挡条件,又在东西向挤压时封闭性变差而变成油气垂向运移通道,断层及断层作用控制了圈闭分布与油气聚集的有序性,自东向西,圈闭及油水界面依次升高且充满度变小,呈全充满、欠充满、半充满等状态。断裂系统研究将地质体置于一定的构造应力场中,分析断层组合的空间排列和交切关系以及断层的力学机制和位移特征等,探究时空演化对油气分布的控制作用。断裂系统研究方法在构造作用叠合区具有适宜性,对该区及类似地区的勘探开发具有现实意义。     

Spatial landslide susceptibility assessment using machine learning techniques assisted by additional data created with generative adversarial networks

In recent years,landslide susceptibility mapping has substantially improved with advances in machine learning.However,there are still challenges remain in landslide mapping due to the availability of limited inventory data.In this paper,a novel method that improves the performance of machine learning techniques is presented.The proposed method creates synthetic inventory data using Generative Adversarial Networks(GANs)for improving the prediction of landslides.In this research,landslide inventory data of 156 landslide locations were identified in Cameron Highlands,Malaysia,taken from previous projects the authors worked on.Elevation,slope,aspect,plan curvature,profile curvature,total curvature,lithology,land use and land cover(LULC),distance to the road,distance to the river,stream power index(SPI),sediment transport index(STI),terrain roughness index(TRI),topographic wetness index(TWI)and vegetation density are geo-environmental factors considered in this study based on suggestions from previous works on Cameron Highlands.To show the capability of GANs in improving landslide prediction models,this study tests the proposed GAN model with benchmark models namely Artificial Neural Network(ANN),Support Vector Machine(SVM),Decision Trees(DT),Random Forest(RF)and Bagging ensemble models with ANN and SVM models.These models were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).The DT,RF,SVM,ANN and Bagging ensemble could achieve the AUROC values of(0.90,0.94,0.86,0.69 and 0.82)for the training;and the AUROC of(0.76,0.81,0.85,0.72 and 0.75)for the test,subsequently.When using additional samples,the same models achieved the AUROC values of(0.92,0.94,0.88,0.75 and 0.84)for the training and(0.78,0.82,0.82,0.78 and 0.80)for the test,respectively.Using the additional samples improved the test accuracy of all the models except SVM.As a result,in data-scarce environments,this research showed that utilizing GANs to generate supplementary samples is promising because it can improve the predictive capability of common landslide prediction models.     

Geochronological and geochemical evidence for a Late Ordovician to Silurian arc-back-arc system in the northern Great Xing'an Range,NE China

The early Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the Xing'an-Mongolian Orogenic Belt is dominated by two oceanic basins on the northwestern and southeastern sides of the Xing'an Block,i.e.,the Xinlin-Xiguitu Ocean and the Nenjiang Ocean.However,the early development of the Nenjiang Ocean remains unclear.Here,we present zircon U-Pb geochronology and whole-rock elemental and Sr-Nd isotopic data on the gabbros in the Xinglong area together with andesitic tuffs and basalts in the Duobaoshan area.LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating of gabbros and andesitic tuffs yielded crystallization ages of 443-436 Ma and 452-451 Ma,respectively.The Early Silurian Xinglong gabbros show calc-alkaline and E-MORB affinities but they are enriched in LILEs,and depleted in HFSEs,with relatively low U/Th ratios of 0.18-0.36 andεNd(t)values of-1.6 to+0.5.These geochemical features suggest that the gabbros might originate from a mantle wedge modified by pelagic sediment-derived melts,consistent with a back-arc basin setting.By contrast,the andesitic tuffs are characterized by high MgO(>5 wt.%),Cr(138-200 ppm),and Ni(65-110 ppm)contents,and can be termed as high-Mg andesites.Their low Sr/Y ratios of 15.98-17.15 and U/Th values of 0.24-0.25 and moderate(La/Sm)_n values of 3.07-3.26 are similar to those from the Setouchi Volcanic Belt(SW Japan),and are thought to be derived from partial melting of subducted sediments,and subsequent melt-mantle interaction.The Duobaoshan basalts have high Nb(8.44-10.30 ppm)and TiO2 contents(1.17-1.60 wt.%),typical of Nb-enriched basalts.They are slightly younger than regional adakitic rocks and have positiveεNd(t)values of+5.2 to+5.7 and are interpreted to be generated by partial melting of a depleted mantle source metasomatized by earlier adakitic melts.Synthesized with coeval arc-related igneous rocks from the southeastern Xing'an Block,we propose that the Duobaoshan high-Mg andesitic tuffs and Nbenriched basalts are parts of the Late Ordovician and Silurian Sonid Zuoqi-Duobaoshan arc belt,and they were formed by the northwestern subduction of the Nenjiang Ocean.Such a subduction beneath the integrated Xing'an-Erguna Block also gave rise to the East Ujimqin-Xinglong igneous belt in a continental back-arc basin setting.Our new data support an early Paleozoic arc-back-arc model in the northern Great Xing'an Range.     

Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management

Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.     

应用分布式存储技术优化省级CIMISS数据服务能力

随着气象数据量的不断增长,进一步提升CIMISS数据管理和服务能力的需求变得日益迫切。为解决存储系统动态扩展能力不足、并行计算与吞吐效率低下等限制CIMISS继续发展的问题,采用分布式文件系统和NAS技术替代GPFS建设共享文件系统,实现非结构化气象数据的存储功能;采用分布式数据库替代Oracle RAC建设关系数据库管理系统,实现结构化气象数据的存储功能和非结构化气象数据的索引功能。实践证明,该方案能够有效地改善CIMISS的数据存储能力、并发响应能力,适应未来气象业务对数据存储和应用的需求。     

广西气象数据中心机房供电系统设计与保障

针对供配电系统容易发生的安全隐患,优化设计配电系统结构、采用一体化运维监控平台和采用高质量、高可靠性的设备,消除单点故障瓶颈,确保在停电、设备故障、维修维护等各种情况下提供不中断或快速恢复供电,避免停电对业务正常运行造成影响,确保机房供电安全。     

太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋酸化影响的模拟研究

研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO₂高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。     

Measuring,mapping and quantifying the effects of trust and informal communication on transboundary collaboration in the Great Lakes fisheries policy network

Ecosystem-based management of fisheries and other transboundary natural resources require a number of organizations across jurisdictions to exchange knowledge, coordinate policy goals and engage in collaborative activities. Trust, as part of social capital, is considered a key mechanism facilitating the coordination of such inter-organizational policy networks. However, our understanding of multi-dimensional trust as a theoretical construct and an operational variable in environmental and natural resource management has remained largely untested. This paper presents an empirical assessment of trust and communication measures applied to the North American Great Lakes fisheries policy network. Using a scale-based method developed for this purpose, we quantify the prevalence of different dimensions of trust and in/formal communication in the network and their differentiated impacts on decision-making and goal consensus. Our analysis reveals that calculation-based ‘rational trust’ is important for aligning mutual goals, but relationship-based ‘affinitive trust’ is most significant for influencing decision-making. Informal communication was also found to be a strong predictor of how effectively formal communication will influence decision-making, confirming the “priming” role of informal interactions in formal inter-agency dealings. The results also show the buffering and interactive functions of these components in strengthening institutional resilience, with procedural trust undergirding the system to compensate for a lack of well-developed relationships. Overall, this study provides evidence to suggest that informal communication and multi-dimensional trust constitute a crucial element for improving collaboration and reducing conflict in the networked governance of transboundary natural resource systems.     

Integrating farmers’ adaptive knowledge into flood management and adaptation policies in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A social learning perspective

Flood management and adaptation are important elements in sustaining farming production in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). While over the past decades hydraulic development introduced by the central government has substantially benefited the rural economy, it has simultaneously caused multiple barriers to rural adaptation. We investigate the relational practices (i.e., learning interactions) taking place within and across the flood management and adaptation boundaries from the perspective of social learning. We explore whether and how adaptive knowledge (i.e., experimental and experiential knowledge) derived from farmers’ everyday adaptation practices contributes to local flood management and adaptation policies in the selected areas. We collected data through nine focus groups with farmers and thirty-three interviews with government officials, environmental scientists, and farmers. Qualitative analysis suggests that such processes are largely shaped by the institutional context where the boundary is embedded. This study found that while the highly bureaucratic operation of flood management creates constraints for feedback, the more informal arrangements set in place at the local level provide flexible platforms conducive to open communication, collaborative learning, and exchange of knowledge among the different actors. This study highlights the pivotal role of shadow systems that provide space for establishing and maintaining informal interactions and relationships between social actors (e.g., interactions between farmers and extension officials) in stimulating and influencing, from the bottom-up, the emergence of adaptive knowledge about flood management and adaptation in a local context.     

Cross-site analysis of perceived ecosystem service benefits in multifunctional landscapes

Rural development policies in many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries promote sustainable landscape management with the intention of providing multiple ecosystem services (ES). Yet, it remains unclear which ES benefits are perceived in different landscapes and by different people. We present an assessment of ES benefits perceived and mapped by residents (n = 2,301) across 13 multifunctional (deep rural to peri-urban) landscapes in Europe. We identify the most intensively perceived ES benefits, their spatial patterns, and the respondent and landscape characteristics that determine ES benefit perception. We find outdoor recreation, aesthetic values and social interactions are the key ES benefits at local scales. Settlement areas are ES benefit hotspots but many benefits are also related to forests, waters and mosaic landscapes. We find some ES benefits (e.g. culture and heritage values) are spatially clustered, while many others (e.g. aesthetic values) are dispersed. ES benefit perception is linked to people’s relationship with and accessibility to a landscape. Our study discusses how a local perspective can contribute to the development of contextualized and socially acceptable policies for sustainable ES management. We also address conceptual confusion in ES framework and present argumentation regarding the links from services to benefits, and from benefits to different types of values.