Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

地球脉动——表现、级别及与古地磁的联系

地球脉动的概念是指地球在其历史中曾发生膨胀和收缩的周期性变化。其根据是构造变动、岩浆活动、地磁极倒转以及海平面升降等方面，在地球的膨胀和收缩期，均有各种表现。构造 海平面升降在地球收缩期形成海退，在膨胀期形成海侵。在一个地球脉动旋回的不同时期，地表、海平面和洋底之间的相互关系均有变化，因而形成“层序”的沉积记录。地磁场的强度和地磁极倒转频率在显生宙有明显变化，有高峰期和平静期。这种频率变化与构造变动和岩浆活动都有对应关系，特别是４Ｍａ为准周期的地磁极倒转频率与海底扩张、洋壳形成速率之间具有良好的对应关系。地球脉动旋回可以分为不同的级次，构成级别体系：超级旋回约１Ｇａ，巨旋回２５０～３００Ｍａ，一级旋回５０～１５０Ｍａ，二级旋回５～５０Ｍａ，三级旋回１～５Ｍａ，均可与构造旋回相对应，更高的级次对构造不形成影响。三级及更长的脉动旋回可能受深部过程的控制。中、新生代以来，地球脉动是在地球适度膨胀的背景下进行的。     

数据分析法确定嶂山闸闸基渗透压力

闸基渗透压力是影响水闸闸室稳定的关键性因素。当水闸同时受到上下游水位差、基底承压水头、粘性土地基扬压力滞后等多重因素作用时 ,闸基渗透压力的估算就变得比较困难。通过对嶂山闸闸基历年实测渗透压力数据进行统计分析 ,初步揭示其基底渗透压力的变化规律 ,为该闸闸室稳定性分析提供依据。     

应用GMS5多通道云图估计降水技术的研究

对近两年来5～8月中国东部地区120多个测站雨量观测资料和对应4400多幅GMS-5四个通道云图的研究发现：红外亮温的时间、空间变率、红外和水汽通道亮温差等云图衍生资料对消除卷云，弥补夜间缺少可见光云图的不足起到明显作用。从而，应用双判据双重MOS多元回归法建立四通道云图因子、衍生因子与降水量之间的回归方程，进行6小时分级降水估计。为了进一步消除厚卷云和特殊地形的影响，提出使用逐日实时资料自动建立多元回归方程估计降水量，从而对双判据双重MOS多元回归法估计结果进行校正。上海中心气象台的业务使用表明，总体估计的准确率达70％左右。     

国家气象中心客观要素预报--MOS系统

面向全国2000多个台站，应用数值预报产品释用MOS技术制作温度、降水、相对湿度、风、云量及能见度等要素预报，并实现了预报业务运行。通过建立MOS预报系统，表明预报因子和预报对象的处理、建方程前的参数选择以及预报因子的选取都会影响要素预报的质量，需要做大量的细致工作。预报检验结果显示，降水预报尚未达到可用程度．温度和相对湿度的短期预报在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的，但还有待进一步改进。降水预报尚需在预报因子和充分运用多种探测信息方面加以改进。     

夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验

该文对我国汛期降水量和气温缺测资料及资料均一性恢复的方法进行试验研究。对单个气候地区（东北区），以及全国6个气候地区用逐步回归和逐步判别方法进行缺测1～5年恢复试验。对东北地区内所有站点的试验表明，逐步判别分析方法比逐步回归分析方法恢复效果好些；选择邻站用判别分析方法建立的恢复模型，效果更好。全国气候地区试验表明，选择邻站的判别分析方法有较好的恢复效果。     

Spatially weighted supervised classification for remote sensing

A simple approach for incorporating a spatial weighting into a supervised classifier for remote sensing applications is presented. The classifier modifies the feature-space distance-based metric with a spatial weighting. This is facilitated by the use of a non-parametric (k-nearest neighbour, k-NN) classifier in which the spatial location of each pixel in the training data set is known and available for analysis. A remotely sensed image was simulated using a combined Boolean and geostatistical unconditional simulation approach. This simulated image comprised four wavebands and represented three classes: Managed Grassland, Woodland and Rough Grassland. This image was then used to evaluate the spatially weighted classifier. The latter resulted in modest increase in the accuracy of classification over the original k-NN approach. Two spatial distance metrics were evaluated: the non-centred covariance and a simple inverse distance weighting. The inverse distance weighting resulted in the greatest increase in accuracy in this case.     

基于GIS的孔隙水文地质层三维空间离散方法

针对自然界中孔隙水文地质层空间分布的不连续性与厚度分布的不均匀性,研究基于GIS的孔隙水文地质层三维空间离散实现的技术路线,提出基于GIS的孔隙水文地质层不规则六面体元的三维空间离散方法.该法不仅能最大限度地保证不规则六面体元中水文地质层类型的一元性,而且可充分利用GIS的空间分析与数据的自动提取功能,快速提取各个计算结点上空间位置坐标与各类计算参数,大大缩短水文地质模型空间离散与相关数据文件组织所需的时间,提高地下水三维有限差分数值模拟的时效性,具有较高的实用价值.     

泰斯模型的统计分析求解

本文利用统计分析来求解水文地质参数,原理简单,解是唯一的。其基本思想是利用非稳定流抽水试验获得的s-t系列资料,以泰斯公式为参考模型,建立试验系列的非线性统计模型,求解导水系数T和贮水系数μ 。统计模型既可利用目前先进的软件辅助求解,亦可利用一台可编程计算器完成计算。本文借助一个实例,应用MATLAB语言的统计分析工具的多元回归分析模块进行求解,获得了理想的结果。     

Application of Remote Sensing in Flood Management with Special Reference to Monsoon Asia: A Review

The conventional means to record hydrological parameters of aflood often fail to record an extreme event. Remote sensingtechnology along with geographic information system (GIS)has become the key tool for flood monitoring in recent years.Development in this field has evolved from optical to radarremote sensing, which has provided all weather capabilitycompared to the optical sensors for the purpose of flood mapping.The central focus in this field revolves around delineation of floodzones and preparation of flood hazard maps for the vulnerable areas.In this exercise flood depth is considered crucial for flood hazardmapping and a digital elevation model (DEM) is considered to bethe most effective means to estimate flood depth from remotelysensed or hydrological data. In a flat terrain accuracy of floodestimation depends primarily on the resolution of the DEM. Riverflooding in the developing countries of monsoon Asia is very acutebecause of their heavy dependence on agriculture but any floodestimation or hazard mapping attempt in this region is handicappedby poor availability of high resolution DEMs. This paper presents areview of application of remote sensing and GIS in flood managementwith particular focus on the developing countries of Asia.