Accuracy assessment of global ocean tide models in the South China Sea using satellite altimeter and tide gauge data

In this study, to meet the need for accurate tidal prediction, the accuracy of global ocean tide models was assessed in the South China Sea(0°–26°N, 99°–121°E). Seven tide models, namely, DTU10, EOT11 a, FES2014, GOT4.8,HAMTIDE12, OSU12 and TPXO8, were considered. The accuracy of eight major tidal constituents(i.e., Q₁, O₁, P₁,K₁, N₂, M₂, S₂ and K₂) were assessed for the shallow water and coastal areas based ...     

雨量计密度对校准雷达估测降水的影响及单点对校准的贡献

利用新一代天气雷达基数据资料和天津三次不同类型降水天气过程的降水量资料,采用变分校准方法,以校准区域内所有雨量计校准雷达得到的估测降水场作为"真值场",对比分析14种不同密度雨量计网校准雷达估测降水的效果,并对雨量计网中单个雨量计站点对校准雷达的贡献进行试验分析。结果表明:（1）参加校准的雨量计密度较小时,雷达估测降水的误差较大,估测效果不好;随校准雨量计密度的不断加大,雷达估测降水的偏差明显减小、估测精度不断提高并逐渐趋于稳定。（2）校准不同类型降水需要的雨量计密度不同,这与降水的性质有关;当校准雷达估测降水的效果与"真值场"的相当时,所需的雨量计密度为121 km²·部^-1。（3）在雨量计校准网中任意增加降水量不为零的站点,会在增加的站点周围出现估测偏差（高估或低估）,偏差的大小与站点降水量相对于其周围雨量计平均值的大小有关、偏差的影响范围则与站点周围雨量计的分布密度有关。（4）任意增大（减小）雨量计校准网中单个站点的降水量会使雷达对站点周围降水的估计偏高（偏低）,高（低）估的程度及影响范围与站点降水量增大（减小）的多少及站点周围雨量计分布密度有关,而与降水类型及降水随时间的演变无关。     

利用多代卫星测高资料监测1993～2011年全球海平面变化

联合多代测高卫星T/P、Jason-1/2海面高数据和验潮站数据,确定了各卫星高度计的长期低频漂移,建立了统一的卫星测高海面高观测值,研究了1993～2011年间全球平均海平面的变化。结果表明,近18a全球平均海平面以3.12±0.4mm·a-1的速率上升,其中,海平面年际信号与ENSO事件表现出较强的相关性。     

山体破裂失稳早期预测预报光纤传感器技术研究

山体破坏和发展过程可以看作为裂纹扩展的过程,为了解决山体微裂缝变形动态监测问题,研究了一种薄盒式岩体裂缝光纤传感器,文中给出了其结构设计,并对该薄盒式岩体裂缝光纤传感器的性能进行了位移和压力两项室内试验研究,同时还对相应的二次仪表进行了研究与试验,结果表明：所研究的薄盒式岩体裂缝光纤传感器,具有可靠、实用和高灵敏度等特点,对于山体或其它裂缝工程体（如水坝）的变形发展、失稳的机理研究和早期预报,将是一种良好的传感监测设备,具有较好的工程应用价值。     

Variability of unconfined compressive strength in relation to number of test samples

Unconfined compressive strength is one of the most commonly used properties in rock engineering. Estimation or selection of an appropriate value of unconfined compressive strength for a given rock can be difficult as it can vary greatly within the same rock unit. Considering this large variability, unconfined compressive strength obtained by testing just a few samples is questionable. The purpose of this study was to investigate the variability of unconfined compressive strength for a given rock and, based on this information, determine the minimum number of samples required for obtaining a reliable value. Unconfined compressive strength values for approximately 50 NX-size (2.125 in./5.4 cm) core samples were determined for five different rock types. Statistical analyses were performed on subsets of cores to determine the minimum number of samples required to render a reliable estimate of the average strength of the entire set of cores. The results indicate that the minimum number of samples needed for strength determination depends on the statistical method used, the chosen confidence interval, and the acceptable deviation from the mean. For a 95% confidence interval and a 20% acceptable strength deviation from the mean, either 9 or 10 samples are needed to test for strength, depending on the statistical analysis used.     

Conditions during syntectonic vein formation in the footwall of the Absaroka Thrust Fault, Idaho–Wyoming–Utah fold and thrust belt

The Twin Creek Limestone in the footwall of the Absaroka thrust sheet contains three sets of bed-normal syntectonic calcite veins. Vein formation occurred during Cretaceous motion along the Absaroka thrust fault as indicated by (1) crosscutting relationships among these vein sets, (2) a previously dated solution cleavage, and (3) calcite twin analysis. Fluid inclusions in the veins and overburden estimates constrain inclusion entrapment temperatures to be between 175 °C and 328 °C. Results from stable oxygen isotopes indicate that the host and vein fluid compositions were in near isotopic equilibrium. Applying both reasonable geothermal gradients and constraints on overburden temperature yields fluid pressures during vein precipitation that are near hydrostatic. All data taken together suggest both that vein formation within the Twin Creek Formation occurred in a relatively closed system, and that the veins filled near hydrostatic fluid pressure. Because the veins fill precursory cracks, vein filling might not reflect the maximum fluid pressure that existed during the complete vein forming process.     

2008年初全国雨雪冰冻天气的OLR资料分析

2008年1月至2月初,中国发生大范围长时间的雨雪冰冻天气气候事件,用NOAA-18气象卫星的OLR资料,对这一极端天气气候事件做了OLR资料特征分析.统计得出这一时段内OLR候距平与候降水量的关系式:Y=A+B×OLRJP,在江南、华南地区其相关系数为0.60525;计算了中国区域及其主要气象台站1989-2008年的月OLR标准差,得出中国区域月OLR标准差1989-2008年段明显高于1989-2000年段,表明近年来极端气候事件增多;从OLR候、旬等值线图和距平图分析得出:卫星OLR资料的等值线图,特别是距平等值线图,能较好地反映降水天气事件,尤其是长时间降水的极端天气气候事件,在日平均OLR等值线图上,OLR值低表明云系越高,降水越强;在候、旬平均OLR等值线图上,OLR越低表明降水云持续的时间长;而候、旬OLR距平的大小则揭示了观测地区的旱涝程度,候、旬OLR负距平越低表示超过常年同期的降水强度越强和持续的时间越长.     

日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析

对缺测气象观测记录进行插补是建立连续气象数据集的基础.将孤立1日或数日缺测资料进行插补的线性回归模型法应用于连续缺测数月的逐日最高、最低和平均气温的插补,并进行了一系列改进,包括:(1)用滑动选优法确定邻近参考气象站站数和数据样本时间窗的最佳值;(2)在记录缺测站与邻近参考站之间建立逐日气温的线性回归模型,并选取以最小绝对误差(Least Absolute Deviation,LAD)为目标函数求取模型参数的方法,取代以最小均方根误差为目标函数的最小二乘法(Least Squares Estimate,LAD)求解模型参数的方法,可提高计算效率和参数的稳定性;(3)进一步提出将LAD法与DeGaetano标准化序列法插补结果平均的综合插补方法,以减少极端误差.通过对湖北蔡甸气象站1961-2006年插补试验表明:(1)以4个邻近站和年数为8年、日数为15天时间窗的样本资料建模进行插补误差达到最小;(2)逐日最高、最低和平均气温的平均绝对误差分别为0.32℃、0.45℃、0.28℃,误差在±0.8℃以内的频次分别占总数的94.1%、84.8%、96.1%,观测值与插补值月相关系数在0.886以上.插补与观测资料平均值和相关系数分别通过了显著水平为0.05和0.01的检验.     

鱼嘴构造流变计研究与基于流变学的分类方案

如同膨缩型香肠构造一样,鱼嘴石香肠构造是存在岩石流变性差异的能干层与基质在纯剪切作用机制下形成的构造形迹。在深入研究鱼嘴构造形态与能干层基质流变性差异的基础上,运用物理模拟的方法,模拟出不同形态的鱼嘴香肠构造,反演出能干层基质粘度比与香肠形态之间的关系,进而得出一种关于鱼嘴香肠构造的经验流变计。 认识到鱼嘴构造的纯剪切作用机制及其平面应变的特点,通过对香肠现有的几何参数的测量和计算以及对香肠构造演化初始阶段几何参数的恢复,在合理假设的理想状况下,推导出鱼嘴构造的应变差折射流变计。 鱼嘴构造是流变行为下应变的结果,因此这种构造行迹不仅有几何学意义,更折射出流变学意义。在模拟实验与野外考察的基础上提出了一种基于流变学与剪切作用机制的鱼嘴构造分类方案。     

陕西数字地震台网子台测定震级的研究

使用陕西数字地震台网1998～2003年间的地震记录,以台网平均震级为标准震级,分析了各子台的测定震级。结果表明,各子台测定震级的偏差存在地域分布特征,震级随方位角显示趋势性变化。台址位于平原和山区交界处的台站,对于山区发生的地震测定震级偏大,对于平原地区发生的地震测定震级偏小。最后对震级偏差成因进行了探讨。