山东栖霞金矿的空间分布及其矿化特征

破碎蚀变岩型金矿与裂隙充填石英脉型金矿是栖霞地区主要金矿化类型,破碎蚀变岩型金矿分布于郭家岭超单元西石硼单元或玲珑超单元郭家店单元二长花岗岩体内外接触带附近;而裂隙充填石英脉型金矿主要分布于栖霞-桃村一带的古老基底构造轴部附近,且集中分布于该地区南北宽不超过20km的范围内。而大部分含金矿脉其附近往往发育有成群成带的中基性岩脉,中基性岩脉特别是煌斑岩为该区找金的一个间接标志。     

Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network

Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a “fuzzified” version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models.     

Fog Detection over China’s Adjacent Sea Area by using the MTSAT Geostationary Satellite Data

A fog threshold method for the detection of sea fog from Multi-function Transport Satellite (MTSAT1R) infrared (IR) channel data is presented.This method uses principle component analysis (PCA),texture analysis,and threshold detection to extract sea fog information.A heavy sea fog episode that occurred over China’s adjacent sea area during 7 8 April 2008 was detected,indicating that the fog threshold method can effectively detect sea fog areas nearly 24 hours a day.MTSAT-1R data from March 2006,June 2007,and April 2008 were processed using the fog threshold method,and sea fog coverage information was compared with the meteorological observation report data from ships.The hit rate,miss rate,and false alarm rate of sea fog detection were 66.1%,27.3%,and 33.9%,respectively.The results show that the fog threshold method can detect the formation,evolution,and dissipation of sea fog events over period of time and that the method has superior temporal and spatial resolution relative to conventional ship observations.In addition,through MTSAT-1R data processing and a statistical analysis of sea fog coverage information for the period from 2006 to 2009,the monthly mean sea fog day frequency,spatial distribution and seasonal variation characteristics of sea fog over China’s adjacent sea area were obtained.     

基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算

简介了广义极值分布函数及其3种参数估计方法,包括极大似然(ML)、线性矩(LM)和间隔最大积(MPS)估计的计算方法。使用广义极值分布函数推算了北部湾涠洲岛海域3个波向的年波高极值序列设计波高,并与Weibull分布、Gumbel分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的推算结果加以对比。分析表明,涠洲岛海域极值波高服从于广义极值Ⅲ型分布,拟合优度检验结果表明广义极值分布能更好地拟合极值波高;MPS方法是一种优良的参数估计法,推算的设计波高可作为海岸环境工程设计的首要参考值。     

利用MODIS资料遥感水体上空气溶胶粒子尺度的数值试验

利用卫星探测辐射的光谱依赖性来反演大气气溶胶粒子尺度分布,首先要建立反演算法并检验其可行性。本文参照文献[1]对暗的海洋上空MODIS资料的处理方法,针对大陆水库上空卫星探测MODIS辐射信号,利用6S(Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum)辐射模式建立一个查算表(Look-up table:LUT)来反演大气气溶胶粒子尺度分布;然后通过数值试验对所建立的查算表进行检验,讨论其方法的可行性。数值试验结果表明,查算表对大陆性气溶胶尺度分布有反演能力,但拟合误差sεl值随着气溶胶光学厚度的增加而增加。     

斑岩型铜钼矿床重要共(伴)生元素赋存状态与分布规律

斑岩型铜钼矿床除主要成矿元素Cu,Mo外,还往往共(伴)生Re,Co,Au,Ag等重要元素,综合回收利用共(伴)生金属具有重大资源及环境效益。通过研究斑岩型铜钼矿床中共(伴)生元素Re,Co,Au,Ag的品位、储量、赋存状态及分布规律,认为Co主要以类质同象形式赋存于黄铁矿中,其分布与黄铁矿密切相关,通常浓集于绢英岩化带外侧;Au,Ag主要以自然金、银与金银系列矿物的形式产出,Au,Ag在不同硫化物中的含量、颗粒粒度以及赋存形式差异很大,Au在各蚀变带均有可能富集,但主要浓集区域是钾化带与石英-绢云母化带;Ag在早期主要以Cu-Ag-Au的形式富集于绢英岩化带,晚期以Pb-Zn-Ag形式赋存于青磐岩化带;Re的分布与绢云母化带的辉钼矿密切相关。     

Distribution characteristics and petroleum geological significance of the Silurian asphaltic sandstones in Tarim Basin

The Tarim Basin is a typical superimposed basin in which there have occurred multiphase adjustment and destruction of the reservoirs. The widely distributed asphaltic sandstones of the Silurian are the very product after destruction of the reservoirs. Studies show that the Silurian asphaltic sandstones distributed in both the middle and western parts on the basin are controlled chiefly by the Caledonian oil source area and by the Tazhong, Tabei and Bachu uplifts, whereas the distribution of the asphaltic sandstones on local structural belts is controlled by the reservoir's sedimentary system. Vertically, most of the asphaltic sandstones are under the regional caprock of red mudstones and the upper sandstone section of compact lithology. Due to the difference of hydrocarbon destruction in the early stage and the influence of hydrocarbon recharge in the late stage, the asphaltic sandstones and oil-bearing sandstones in the Tazhong area can be vertically divided into the upper and lower sections and they have an interactive distribution relationship as well. Asphaltic sandstones exist not only in intergranular pores but also inside the grains of sand and between the crevices, proving the destruction of early reservoirs due to uplifting. The existence of asphaltic sandstones over a large area reveals that the large-scale migration and accumulation and the subsequent destruction of hydrocarbons in the Craton area. The destruction caused a loss of the reserve resources of the Palaeozoic amounting to nearly 13.3 billion tons. Asphaltic sandstones formed after the destruction of oil and gas may serve as an effective caprock which is beneficial to accumulation of hydrocarbons and formation of the pool sealed by asphaltic sandstones in the later stage. The destruction of the early Silurian hydrocarbons depends on the stratigraphic burial depth. The deep part under the northern slope of Tazhong is an area favorable to search of undestroyed Silurian oil reservoirs.     

2014年鲁甸6.5级地震成因、破裂特征和余震分布特征的库仑应力作用

根据2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震的区域构造和余震共轭分布特征,本文首先计算了1733年小江断裂带北段M7.75地震,1850年则木河断裂带M7.5地震和1974年马边M_S7.1地震对鲁甸M_S6.5地震震源机制解两个节面的黏弹性库仑应力作用,结果显示NNW向发生主破裂的包谷垴-小河断裂受到这3次地震,尤其是1850年M7.5地震明显的库仑应力作用,我们认为则木河断裂的高速左旋走滑运动以及7级以上强震的重复发生对于包谷垴-小河断裂的强震孕育和断裂演化方面具有促进作用;然后分析了鲁甸6.5级地震的共轭破裂与余震分布特征,并分别计算了两个共轭破裂面单独破裂对另一破裂面的库仑应力作用,结果显示NEE向破裂促进NNW向破裂的发生,而NNW向破裂后则阻碍了NEE向破裂的进一步发展,最终发展成以NNW向破裂为主的共轭破裂事件;最后计算了共轭破裂产生的库仑应力变化对余震的影响,认为位于NEE向破裂面西侧的余震集中分布主要是由于应力触发作用而形成.