Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

New Methods of Fitting the Membership Function of Oceanic Water Masses

1　Introduction　Watermassanalysisisanimportantsubjectinphys icaloceanographystudies (PickardandEmery ,1 990 ;YeandLi,1 992 ) .Helland Hansenplottedin 1 91 6theT Scurve ,whichisafterwardsknownasoneoftheT Sdiagrams ,andsuggestedthatawatermasscanbedefinedby…     

NAOC 1m反射望远镜CCD相机的性能研究

研究了国家天文台兴隆观测基地1m反射望远镜新安装的VersArray1340×1300BCCD照相机的性能。它有几乎没有图案的良好本底（bias），极低的读出噪声和暗流。用平场序列露光来检测其线性时，能得到线性良好的转移曲线（transfercurve）。但是，不论在平场露光（面光源）还是在恒星（点光源）的观测中，当像元值约高于55000adu时（增益3．7e^-／adu），都会产生溢出。此时CCD并未满井。因此，使用它做点扩散函数分析研究时，要避免使用太亮的星像。不过，由于电荷守恒原理，对产生溢出的孤立亮星像，仍然可以做孔径测光。此外，该相机的快门函数也已测定。     

Storm‐event rainfall–runoff modelling approach for ungauged sites in Taiwan

This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Light curves for off-centre ignition models of Type Ia supernovae

We compare observations of the high-redshift galaxy population to the predictions of the galaxy formation model of Croton et al. and De Lucia & Blaizot. This model, implemented on the Millennium Simulation of the concordance Lambda cold dark matter cosmogony, introduces 'radio mode' feedback from the central galaxies of groups and clusters in order to obtain quantitative agreement with the luminosity, colour, morphology and clustering properties of the present-day galaxy population. Here we construct deep light cone surveys in order to compare model predictions to the observed counts and redshift distributions of distant galaxies, as well as to their inferred luminosity and mass functions out to redshift 5. With the exception of the mass functions, all these properties are sensitive to modelling of dust obscuration. A simple but plausible treatment agrees moderately well with most of the data. The predicted abundance of relatively massive  (∼ M _*)  galaxies appears systematically high at high redshift, suggesting that such galaxies assemble earlier in this model than in the real Universe. An independent galaxy formation model implemented on the same simulation matches the observed mass functions slightly better, so the discrepancy probably reflects incomplete or inaccurate galaxy formation physics rather than problems with the underlying cosmogony.     

Streamflow estimation using optimal regional dependency function

The determination of spatial dependency of regionalized variable (ReV) is important in engineering studies. Regional dependency function that leads to calculation of weighting coefficients is required in order to make regional or point‐wise estimations. After obtaining this dependency function, it is possible to complete missing records in the time series and locate new measurement station. Also determination of regional dependency function is also useful to understand the regional variation of ReV. Point Cumulative Semi‐Variogram (PCSV) is another methodology to understand the regional dependency of ReV related to the magnitude and the location. However, this methodology is not useful to determine the weighting coefficient, which is required to make regional and point‐wise estimations. However, in Point Semi‐Variogram (PSV) proposed here, weighting coefficient depends on both magnitude and location. Although the regional dependency function has a fluctuating structure in PSV approach, this function gradually increases with distance in PCSV. The study area is selected in Mississippi river basin with 38 streamflow stations used for PCSV application before. It is aimed to compare two different geostatistical models for the same data set. PSV method has an ability to determine the value of variable along with optimum number of neighbour stations and influence radius. PSV and slope PSV approaches are compared with the PCSV. It was shown that slope slope point semi‐variogram (SPSV) approaches had relative error below 5%, and PSV and PCSV methods revealed relative errors below 10%. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on hydrological processes over a basin scale in northern Taiwan

This study investigates the impact of climate change on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge in northern Taiwan. The upstream catchment of the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was chosen as the study area. Both observed discharge and soil moisture were simultaneously adopted to optimize the HBV‐based hydrological model, clearly improving the simulation of the soil moisture. The delta change of monthly temperature and precipitation from the grid cell of GCMs (General Circulation Models) that is closest to the study area were utilized to generate the daily rainfall and temperature series based on a weather generating model. The daily rainfall and temperature series were further inputted into the calibrated hydrological model to project the hydrological variables. The studies show that rainfall and discharge will be increased during the wet season (May to October) and decreased during the dry season (November to April of the following year). Evapotranspiration will be increased in the whole year except in November and December. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.