基于随机森林的暴雨灾害人口损失预估模型及应用

基于2009—2017年的广西县级暴雨灾情记录,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体因素选取7个解释变量,运用随机森林算法,构建暴雨灾害人口损失预估模型;并以精细化网格降水实况分析和预报产品驱动模型,预估是否发生人口损失。研究结果表明:模型训练样本及测试样本的分类准确率均在90%以上,致灾因子(降水情况)是最主要的解释变量,重要性从大到小依次是前10 d降水距平百分率、过程最大日雨量、最大小时雨量和短时强降水频次。应用智能网格降水产品对广西地区近两年的暴雨灾害过程进行回报试验,准确率超过70%。     

榆林飞播林区土壤地球化学特征

以榆林飞播林区的土壤微生物、土壤养分和土壤可溶性盐为研究对象,对林区土壤可溶性盐的变化规律及其与土壤养分、微生物的相关性进行研究,为水土资源可持续利用以及飞播造林功效的提高提供理论依据.研究表明,研究区土壤属硫酸盐型,土壤层分异特征不显著,土壤仍处于初级发育阶段.土壤总盐与养分的相关性不明显,适当增加K⁺利于真菌的存活和生物量的积累,在1 kg土壤中,每增加1 g K⁺,真菌数量就会增加14个左右.在土层表层,适量减少Cl^-能促进土壤细菌的生长,在40 cm土层的盐分上行过程中出现表聚现象,在土壤中层,出现板结现象,在土壤底层,HCO₃^-和Na⁺质量分数的增加,有利于土壤全氮质量分数的增加,且HCO₃^-的影响力最强.     

Forest certification eligibility as a screen for CDM sinks projects

Abstract

Parties negotiating the Kyoto Protocol recently agreed that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) investments can include carbon sequestration projects in developing countries. However, guidelines for achieving the socio-economic and environmental objectives of the CDM, and other concerns with sinks projects, have yet to be elaborated. Independently of the Kyoto process, international efforts have advanced to define and certify sustainably managed forests through processes, such as that of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). In this paper, the FSC-US principles and criteria for sustainable forest management are evaluated in light of current concerns for guiding afforestation and reforestation projects in the CDM. It is found that the FSC criteria would help to meet some of the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, including provisions to reduce the risk of premature carbon loss, and features that could somewhat lessen leakage of emissions outside the project area. Existing FSC monitoring and verification procedures provide some, but insufficient, overlap with expected requirements for measuring carbon stock changes. FSC principles and criteria articulate stringent guidelines for meeting environmental and social goals that reflect years of negotiations between environmental, timber, human rights and labor interests.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Logs and Snags in a Shola Forest of Kerala, India

Introduction Dead wood is an important structural and functional component of a forest ecosystem(Fridman and Welheim 2000). Recent studies also indicate that dead wood is important for maintaining both plant and animal diversity in different forest ecosystems (Grove 2001) as it serve as an energy source (Bray and Gorham 1964) and habitat for an array of organisms. Dead wood can also help reduce erosion, increase soil organic matters (McFee and Stone 1966), and suitable conditions for seedli…     

Historical Changes and Characteristics of Rehabilitation, Management and Utilization of Forest Resources in South Korea

This study analyzed the causes of forest devastation, the characteristics of forest rehabilitation process, and the success factors of reforestation. And it reviewed the management of rehabilitated forest resources and identified the income sources of mountain villages in South Korea. The devastation of forest starting from the early twentieth century was continued to the 1950＇s. The main causes of deforestation were the illegal cutting of trees for fuel and the slash-and-burning agriculture in forest. The success factors of reforestation were the decrease in the dependence on forest of fuel source, strict administration system and national participation. Sustainable forest management could be made possible through the practical use of social issues like public work project for prevention of landslide damages caused by the thinned logs left in the forest. Also it could be possible by making people realize that the public benefit was obtained from forest and the income sources of mountain villages were supplemented by non-timber forest products and tourism. Food and Agriculture Organization indicated Korea as the country that forestation was succeeded in a very short period. Korea seems to be not ordinary because economic growth was accomplished with rehabilitating natural environment. Korean forestation can become a good prototype of combining environmental rehabilitation and economic development.     

长江上游防护林体系建设要点

本区防护林体系的建设目标是:改善生态环境,发展山区经济。人口稠密区防护林体系建设成败的关健在于:能否掌握生态生产双重功能,是否具有生态社会经济三大效益。为此进行了防护林体系分类,提出了林种的生态功能指标和生产功能指标。防护林体系的生态经济分区要研究生态经济系绽的地域差异,有助于发挥各个林种的生态生产双重功能,是建设防护林体系的重要途径,为合理布局提供科学依据。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Boundary Control and Legal Priniciples . Curtis M. Brown , Walter G. Robillard and Donald A. Wilson . Lost Initiatives: Canada's Forest Industries, Forest Policy, and Forest Conservation . R. Peter Gillis and Thomas R. Roach . The Navajo Atlas: Resources, People, and History of the Dine Bikeyah . James M. Goodman . The City and the Sign . M. Gottdiener AND Alexandros Ph . Lagopoulos , EDS. The Comfortable House: North American Suburban Architecture 1890–1930 . Alan Gowans . Arabic-Islamic Cities. Building and Planning Principles . Besim Salim Hakim . Contemporary Climatology . Ann Henderson -Sellers and Peter J. Robinson . A Trace of Desert Waters . Samuel G. Houghton . Geography, Resources and Environment. Vol. 1: Selected Writings of Gilbert F. White. Vol. 2: Themes from the Work of Gilbert F. White . Robert W. Kates AND Ian Burton , ED. Spatial Dimensions of Unemployment and Underemployment (A Case Study of Rural Punjab) . Gopal Krishan . Maps of the Holy Land: Cartobibliography of Printed Maps, 1475–1900 . Compiled by Eran Laor , assisted by Shoshana Klein . The Geography of Third World Cities . Stella Lowder . A Perspective on U.S. Farm Problems and Agricultural Policy . Lance Mc Kinzie , Timothy G. Baker AND Wallace E. Tyner . Soil Erosion and Its Control. R.P.C . Morgan , ED Geopolitics . Patrick O'Sullivan . Landscape, Meanings and Values . Edmund C. Penning -Rowsell AND David Lowenthal , EDS.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Marine Resources of Kuwait: Their Role in the Development of Non-oil Resources . Fatimah H. Y. al -Abdul -Razzak Recollections of a Revolution: Geography as Spatial Science . Mark Billinge , Derek Gregory and Ron Martin Entre l'Eden et l'Utopie . Luc Bureau Developments in Political Geography . M. A. Busteed The Elements of Graphing Data . William S. Cleveland Rural Resource Management . Paul J. Cloke and Chris C. Park Third World Atlas . Ben Crow and Alan Thomas Exploitation, Conservation, Preservation: A Geographic Perspective on Natural Resource Use . Susan L. Cutter , Hilary Lambert Renwick, and William H. Renwick . Wine Regions of the Southern Hemisphere . Harm Jan de Blij Regional Development: Problems and Policies in Eastern and Western Europe . George Demko The Geographer at Work . Peter R. Gould Change in the Amazon Basin . John Hemming Geography Since the Second World War . R. J. Johnston and P. Claval Urbanization in China: Town and Countryside in a Developing Economy 1949–2000 A.D. , R. J. R. Kirkby Transport and Communications for Pacific Microstates: Issues in Organisation and Management . Christopher C. Kissling Fluvial Forms and Processes . David Knighton The Urban Millennium . Josef W. Konvitz Technological Transition in Cartography . Mark Stephen Monmonier Field Guide to Soils and the Environment: Applications of Soil Surveys . Gerald W. Olson Northern Australia: The Arenas of Life and Ecosystems on Half a Continent . Don Parkes A Killing Rain: The Global Threat of Acid Rain . Thomas Pawlick From the Family Farm to Agribusiness: The Irrigation Crusade in California and the West, 1850–1931 . Donald J. Pisani Hybrid Maize Diffusion in Kenya . Franz -Michael Rundquist Warning and Response to the Mount St. Helens Eruption . Thomas F. Saarinen and James L. Sell Coastal Geomorphology in Australia . B. G. Thom Tropical Rain Forests of the Far East , 2nd ed . T. C. Whitmore The Dark Side of the Earth . Robert Muir Wood Categorical Data Analysis for Geographers and Environmental Scientists , Neil Wrigley     

Causes of Forest Encroachment: An Analysis of Bangladesh

Deforestation is a major cause of environmental degradation. Tropical countries with huge population pressure and widespread poverty are main frontier of deforestation. Bangladesh, being one the most densely populated country with diminishing tropical forestland, supports lowest per capita forestland. The forests are depleting mainly due to illegal logging and conversion to non-forestry uses. In this paper encroachment of forestland by individuals has been dealt with. The socioeconomic causes and pattern of encroachment have been analyzed. Limited land availability and unemployment have been identified as the major proximate causes of encroachment and, if no measures are adopted within next three decades the existing natural forests might be encroached.Part of thesis of the first author submitted for the partial fulfillment of the Master of Science in Forestry in the Khulna University, Bangladesh in 2001 (Iftekhar, 2001). Some of the findings have been presented in the World Forestry Congress XIII, Canada, held from 21 to 28 September 2003 (Iftekhar et al., 2003).