海安暴雨洪涝灾害预报探讨

暴雨洪涝预报是目前气象和水利，水文学科正在致力攻克的预报难题。作者通过调查海安洪涝发生与暴雨的关系，利用水文，地形资料找出径流量和主河道水位升降的相关，结合暴雨预报，推导暴雨洪涝发生的可能以及大致区域和洪涝程度。     

中国及邻近地区冬到夏的季节变化

南亚地区在冬到夏的转变过程中有显著的热力学与环境变化特征，是北半球季节变化的敏感区，对我国长期变化有十分重要的意义。根据这一特点，设计计算了南支西风指数，并将副高面积指数分南北区统计，更地地反映了季节变化特征。统计结果表明，这个指数组对梅雨与华北雨季有天气气候学意义。同时还找到了这个指数组对我国一些地区旱涝的前期指标。     

一种夏季大范围降水趋势分布的预报方法

综合考虑了影响夏季降水异常的大气、海洋因子和降水变化规律，提出了一种大范围降水异常分布的统计预报方法。用１９９１－１９９４年的独立资料检验，取得了满意效果。     

文峪金矿元素地球化学统计分析及深部预测研究

文峪金矿是著名的小秦岭金矿成矿带中的重要矿床，位于河南省与陕西省交界处，本文通过系统的地球化学元素样品分析，采用数学地质统计分析方法，确定了成矿元素间的亲缘关系的组合规律，建立了该矿床成矿元素分带序列模型，指出文峪金矿深部具有良好的找矿远景。     

陕西勉略宁地区致矿地质异常场结构及找矿预测

陕西勉略宁“三角区”构造块体呈楔状夹持在秦岭微板块,扬子陆块和松潘甘孜褶皱带之间,目前已探讨明多种矿产,成矿作用 了自新太古代以来不同构造体抽下的多次构造,岩浆热事件和变质变形的复杂的地质作用,使致矿地质异常场结构复杂化。     

Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.     

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性预测分析

运用DRASTIC方法，评价潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性，结合区内人类工程活动因子。对潞西盆地远期地下水脆弱性进行预测分析，成果可为区内土地规划、备用水源地的选择、垃圾填埋场的选址及实现水资源可持续利用提供合理依据。