特长钢箱梁桥GPS监测数据的奇异谱分析

实时准确地监测和分析大型建筑物的变形对于大型建筑物的施工与运行是十分重要的。奇异谱分析(SSA)是一种与经验正交函数相关联的一种统计技术。文中采用奇异谱分析(SSA)的方法,结合功率谱峰值与原序列和RC1-2重建序列均方误差最小的方法确定最优潜入维数M,研究了特长钢箱梁桥索塔的变形趋势和震荡周期。小波分析技术也可以很好地描述时间序列的时频分布,但SSA重构后的结果比小波要平滑些,更能反映出时间序列的特征。结合苏通大桥北索塔监测序列表明,北索塔站的N,E,U方向上均存在明显的趋势和显著的变动周期,而且也含有较多的噪声信息。     

Areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh: How much did the satellite imagery show?

This paper presents the methods and results of visual interpretation of satellite imagery for estimating areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh. The main limitation of this method was that cloud-free images were not available for the peak flood period in the first week of September. Relatively cloud-free images on three selected dates in the last three weeks of September showed that areas of inundation on those dates ranged from 44000 to 60000 km² ± 5% (31 to 42% of Bangladesh). The Government of Bangladesh official estimates of the areal extent of flooding were tentative in nature, since these were based on a choropleth map of relative proportions (percentages) of flooding in different parts of the country. The official estimate of the maximum extent of flooding was 82000 km² (57% of Bangladesh), i.e. 15 to 26% larger than the area shown on satellite imagery. The actual extent of flooding was certainly larger than the estimates from satellite imagery but, perhaps, smaller than the official estimates, since a reduction of 15 to 26% of flood area in one to three weeks seemed unlikely. An alternative method of mapping flood-affected areas by using newspaper-interpreted data was attempted, but the method had limited values because of reporting bias.     

建筑结构监测与抗震韧性评估

建筑结构响应是有效反映结构动力特性的最直接参数,开展结构动力响应实时监测可为结构抗震韧性评估提供准确的地震动输入。本文基于非结构构件损失构建结构抗震韧性评估方法,研究确定位移敏感型和加速度敏感型非结构构件的易损性模型。选择某六层钢筋混凝土框架结构进行实时监测系统建设,基于监测数据开展结构抗震韧性评估。通过构建建筑信息模型（BIM）,并在有限元分析软件OpenSees中建立结构弹塑性分析模型,利用实时监测数据实现结构模型更新,直至监测数据与模型分析结果一致。由于实时监测数据峰值较低,结构不会发生塑性变形,因此选择10条双向非脉冲地震动模拟实时监测地震记录。根据层间位移角和楼面加速度分布,开展结构功能损失评估,得到该建筑结构的抗震韧性得分。分析表明,该结构抗震性能较好,在遭受地震破坏后,会发生非结构构件脱落,需要采取有效措施进一步提升建筑抗震韧性水平。     

山东省三级地下水监测站网建设思考

随着国家地下水监测工程的启动,国土资源部提出了国家、省、市新的三级地下水监测站网建设要求。该文介绍了各级地下水监测站网的基本概念、主要建设内容,各级地下水监测站网建设服务对象、基本要求,细化了各级地下水监测站网建设要求,规范了建设行动。     

大型基坑工程水平位移监测与预测结果分析

以银川大世界商务广场的基坑为例,介绍了大型基坑工程水平位移监测的实施方案,给出了水平位移监测方法的精度,并对监测成果进行了分析。在此基础上,分别用多项式拟合和时间序列分析模型两种方法进行建模,对基坑水平位移进行预测,结果表明,该基坑水平位移较小,在规范规定的要求之内,说明基坑是稳定的;时间序列分析模型的预测精度要高于多项式拟合模型的精度。     

长江口特大洪水浑浊带悬沙粒度分布特征

2020年长江流域发生了历史第二大洪水,大通站洪峰流量达到84 500 m3/s。本文基于2020年7月长江口特大洪水期间最大浑浊带多站位的水沙观测数据,重点分析了悬沙粒度组分的时空分布特征,并与常态水文条件下的粒度数据进行对比。结果表明：（1）最大浑浊带悬沙垂向平均中值粒径为10.4μm,变化范围为6～27μm,以黏性细颗粒泥沙为主;其中核心区南槽、北槽及北港的中值粒径分别为8.4μm、7.6μm和8.5μm,过渡区分别为7.2μm、16.4μm和14.5μm。（2）悬沙中值粒径垂向分布受不同组分影响,核心区底层中值粒径为8.8～9.6μm;底层黏土含量在28%～31%之间,粉砂含量在61%～64%之间,中值粒径主要受黏土及粉砂组分影响;过渡区北港和北槽垂向平均砂组分高达19%,南槽砂组分平均仅占5%,中值粒径主要受砂组分影响。（3）对比2013年洪季浑浊带数据,2020年粒径整体增大5.4μm,核心区黏土含量相较2013年减少12.7%,砂增加6.3%;过渡区北槽与北港平均粒径增大10μm。     

Analysis of sustained long-period activity at Etna Volcano, Italy

Following the installation of a broadband network on Mt. Etna, sustained Long-Period (LP) activity was recorded accompanying a period of total quiescence and the subsequent onset of the 2004–2005 effusive episode. From about 56000 events detected by an automatic classification procedure, we analyse a subset of about 3000 signals spanning the December 17th, 2003–September 25th, 2004, time interval. LP spectra are characterised by several, unevenly-spaced narrow peaks spanning the 0.5–10 Hz frequency band. These peaks are common to all the recording sites of the network, and different from those associated with tremor signals. Throughout the analysed time interval, LP spectra and waveforms maintain significant similarity, thus indicating the involvement of a non-destructive source process that we interpret in terms of the resonance of a fluid-filled buried cavity. Polarisation analysis indicates radiation from a non-isotropic source involving large amounts of shear. Concurrently with LP signals, recordings from the summit station also depict Very-Long-Period (VLP) pulses whose rectilinear motion points to a region located beneath the summit craters at depths ranging between 800 and 1100 m beneath the surface. Based on a refined repicking of similar waveforms, we obtain robust locations for a selected subset of the most energetic LP events from probabilistic inversion of travel-times calculated for a 3D heterogenous structure. LP sources cluster in a narrow volume located beneath the summit craters, and extending to a maximum depth of ≈ 800 m beneath the surface. No causal relationships are observed between LP, VLP and tremor activities and the onset of the 2004–2005 lava effusions, thus indicating that magmatic overpressure played a limited role in triggering this eruption. These data represent the very first observation of LP and VLP activity at Etna during non-eruptive periods, and open the way to the quantitative modelling of the geometry and dynamics of the shallow plumbing system.     

利用气象卫星遥感监测沙尘暴

介绍了沙尘暴的定义及其危害,简述了内蒙古沙尘暴天气的发生情况,并对利用极轨气象卫星遥感技术监测沙尘暴的原理以及方法进行了探讨和论述。同时,对沙尘暴的遥感监测方法进行了进一步的探讨,提出了遥感监测沙尘暴的思路。     

全国干旱遥感监测运行系统的研制

该研究利用1981－1994的NOAA AVHRR 8km分辨率的NDVI资料，以及对应时段全国102个固定农业观测站的20cm深的土壤湿度资料，建立了植被状态指数（VCI）与土壤湿度之间的统计模型，由土壤湿度旱情等级标准来换算出每旬用VCI进行干旱监测的旱情等级标准，以确定出全国的旬旱情分布状况，在此工作的基础上建成了“全国干旱遥感则运行系统”，该运行系统使遥感手段监测全国干旱成为可能，将能提供每年3－9月每旬全国的干旱监测情况，为国家有关决策部门提供干旱减灾的决策依据。     

Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

Abstract

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.