A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model for multi-decadal groundwater dynamics predictions

A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper–Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using cross-correlation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibration-validation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period.     

初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流变化与江淮出梅的关系

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37.5°N以北,比梅雨结束早1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早(晚)年份梅雨结束早(晚),长江中下游地区降水偏少(多),而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。     

中国大陆水平地壳运动的数学模型

在获得中国区域1000个实测GPS台站速度场的基础上,利用多面函数法、滑动欧拉矢量法和滑动弹塑性模型法建立了中国大陆水平地壳运动模型,统计表明3种方法外部符合精度2～4mm/a,模型互差精度约为3mm/a。     

西南极菲尔德斯半岛白垩纪晚期和第三纪早期岩石的古地磁学及其大地构造意义

采自菲尔德斯半岛白垩纪晚期和第三纪早期五个岩层单位的12个采点109块定向岩芯标本进行了系统的古地磁学测定,从中得知,55～45Ma时期,该区极位置与澳大利亚的同时期结果不同,它经历了大约20°～30°的南向水平移动与70°～80°的西向旋转,逐渐地构成了今日彼此相对位置的格架。文章绘制出南极洲的视极移曲线。     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

我国水产品国际竞争力的提升策略

当前我国水产品出口屡屡受挫．如何提升我国水产品的国际竞争力是我们面临的一个重要课题。通过分析认为。制约我国水产品国际竞争力的外部因素：发达国家技术壁垒的强化；反倾销、反补贴和特殊保障措施使我国在保护水产品生产和贸易上处于严重的不利地位；生态标签成为新的非关税壁垒，威胁着国际贸易的发展。内部因素：政府管理体制方面的制约；水产品生产加工方面的制约；行业组织化程度低，恶性竞争没有得到有效遏制；生产服务和信息服务能力弱；水产品市场体系的制约因索。在此基础上，提出了增加政府补贴、加强养殖监管、健全合作组织、实施品牌战略等一系列提升我国水产品国际竞争力的策略。     

Effective properties of a cemented or an injected granular material

In this paper the macroscopic elastic properties of injected or cemented sands are derived from the characteristics of the constituents and the analysis of the microstructure using a multi‐scale modelling approach. Particular interest is given to the choice of the representative elementary volume, by relying on existing microstructural data. The periodic homogenization is adopted and required numerical solutions are performed by the finite element method. An assessment of the validity of the multi‐scale approach is achieved through comparison with theoretical and experimental results on cemented and injected granular media reported in the literature. The capabilities of the model are also used to investigate the influence of geometrical and mechanical microscale parameters on the macroscopic behaviour of the treated materials. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.