Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Geometric-based approach for integrating VGI POIs and road networks

Integrating heterogeneous spatial data is a crucial problem for geographical information systems (GIS) applications. Previous studies mainly focus on the matching of heterogeneous road networks or heterogeneous polygonal data sets. Few literatures attempt to approach the problem of integrating the point of interest (POI) from volunteered geographic information (VGI) and professional road networks from official mapping agencies. Hence, the article proposes an approach for integrating VGI POIs and professional road networks. The proposed method first generates a POI connectivity graph by mining the linear cluster patterns from POIs. Secondly, the matching nodes between the POI connectivity graph and the associated road network are fulfilled by probabilistic relaxation and refined by a vector median filtering (VMF). Finally, POIs are aligned to the road network by an affine transformation according to the matching nodes. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method integrates both the POIs from VGI and the POIs from official mapping agencies with the associated road networks effectively and validly, providing a promising solution for enriching professional road networks by integrating VGI POIs.     

盘锦营口一体化发展的合意性评价分析

近年来,盘锦市向海发展战略的实施、滨海旅游的发展及两市临港产业链条式、互补式的发展,使两市之间联系越来越紧密,两市一体化发展的趋势越来越明显。基于此,本文以盘锦营口区域经济发展水平的研究为基础,尝试性的建立了盘锦营口一体化发展的合意性评价指标体系,运用AHP层次分析法与模糊综合评价法对两市一体化发展水平的合意性进行了评价,得出两市一体化发展的支持系统一般,动力系统极不完善,实际发展水平较高,生态环境系统较好,两市一体化发展存在一定的不合意性,处于培育与形成阶段,但是发展前景可观。在此基础之上,本文提出盘锦营口一体化发展近期应着重构建区域政府合作机制,远期实现两市行政合一的路径。     

乡村旅游社区景观空间演化研究

乡村旅游社区景观空间是在乡村旅游社区地域范围内,由于人类活动所产生的文化景观的总和。近年来,随着乡村旅游的快速发展,乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化受到人们的高度关注。本文将乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化置于演化经济地理研究框架内,认为其经历形成之前阶段、形成阶段、发展阶段和锁定或创新阶段四个阶段,每个阶段特征和演化机制各不相同。乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化是在遗传机制、变异机制等内因和选择机制、起点状态、关键事件等外因共同作用下,随着产业变迁而发生的具有路径依赖特征的演化过程。     

Utilization of a multicriteria least cost path model in an aquatic environment

A critical component of maintaining biodiversity in fragmented habitats is maintaining connectivity among the usable fragments. Least cost path (LCP) analysis is a tool that can be used for predicting the ability of an organism to move from one habitat patch to another, based on geographical features of the landscape and life history traits of the organism. While this analysis has been utilized for terrestrial habitats, it is rarely applied to aquatic environments. Aquatic hypoxic conditions occur when dissolved oxygen falls below 2 mg/L. These conditions can create barriers in the water column that can either force fish to leave a habitat, or avoid that habitat altogether. Using the lower St. Johns River (LSJR) estuary in Florida, USA, as a study system, the ability of an adult silver perch, Bairdiella chrysoura, to escape a large-scale hypoxic event was modeled using a multicriteria LCP approach. Criteria-specific cost grids were constructed based upon current speed, risk of predation, and whether oxygen levels in the habitat area were normoxic (>5.5 mg/L), or hypoxic (<2.0–1.5 mg/L) as a function of water depth for the LSJR. The criteria cost grids were combined using relative weighting to produce the multicriteria cost grid used to implement the LCP analysis. Three origin and destination point locations within the LSJR study area were selected for modeling whether or not a silver perch would be able to escape a hypoxic zone. Since the LCP model will always determine a LCP from the specified origin point location, ecologically relevant swimming capacities for silver perch under normoxic and hypoxic conditions were then applied to assess the model, and to determine whether the fish would be able to reach areas unimpacted by hypoxia. The LCP model and the swimming capacity results for this study predict that under normoxic conditions, fish movement was unimpeded. During the rapidly developing hypoxic event that was modeled, the results from the LCP model indicate that the fish could move outside the hypoxic zone, but when swimming capacities were applied to the model, the silver perch could not escape. Ecologically, the results of this study suggest that silver perch would experience high mortality under a rapidly developing hypoxic event. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that a LCP model can be applied to an aquatic habitat, as long as the cost grids incorporate relevant abiotic and biotic factors.     

台风“达维”移动路径成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°的6 h再分析资料和常规气象观测资料,综合分析了环流背景、"双台风效应"、冷空气活动和海陆下垫面对台风"达维"移动路径变化的影响,结果表明:(1)台风路径在登陆时第1次发生西折的主要原因是500 hPa副高东撤并由带状调整为块状分布,台风"苏拉"对"达维"吸附作用加强,且台风避开冷SST区趋向暖SST区行进;(2)鲁中山区的地形对台风第2次转向起到重要的阻挡作用,副高588线西伸明显,而副高边缘的西南气流增加了台风的东移分量,西风环流上短波槽的发展南下使台风向西移动的分量减弱消失,双台风强度的减弱和距离的增加使台风的吸附作用迅速减弱,这些因素共同导致了台风第2次转向。     

1981—2010年佛山地区气温、降水和灾害性天气的特征分析

根据佛山地区3个气象站1981—2010年的观测资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究佛山地区近30年气温、降水和灾害性天气的变化特征。结果表明,近30年佛山的年平均气温具有上升的趋势,在1994年发生突变,快速增暖;年雨量波动明显,年降雨日数则呈现出下滑的趋势。高温、暴雨、强对流天气、灰霾等是影响佛山的主要灾害性天气。高温日数呈现出增加的趋势,持续高温现象加剧。暴雨日数具有非常明显的年际变化特征,总体上呈波动且缓慢上升的趋势。佛山全年均有可能出现强对流天气,其中6—8月是高发期,在10月随着汛期的结束强对流天气急剧下降。灰霾天气主要发生在1—3月份和10—12月份,2007年之后,逐年灰霾日数缓慢下降。     

开平市1960—2012年灰霾的气候变化特征

根据开平气象观测站1960—2012年观测资料,采用滑动平均、线性趋势分析等统计方法,分析了开平市近53年灰霾的气候变化特征。结果表明,开平市年平均灰霾日数为21.1 d,年最多132 d,年最少0 d,总体呈上升趋势,上升速率为1.72 d/年,特别是2000年以来年灰霾日上升趋势最为显著,上升速率达10.01 d/年。其中,20世纪80年代中后期、90年代中期和21世纪初是3个明显的上升阶段,21世纪以来,年平均灰霾日数58.4 d,是20世纪80年代平均值的近17倍。开平市灰霾以轻微为主,比例达57.6%,其次是轻度,比例为22.6%。另外,采用日均值、14：00实测值判别法得到的开平市灰霾日整体变化趋势与人工记录较一致,但3种方法统计的多年平均灰霾日相差较大,其中,日均值法计算的多年平均霾日数较14：00实测值法多13.8 d。     

船舶定线制在海图上的表示方法分析

详细介绍了船舶定线制的起源以及在国内的应用情况,结合实例分析船舶定线制的完整体系,提出自己的分类方法,重点探讨船舶定线制这种复杂要素在海图上的表示原则和方法,以及如何在航海通告中明确表述该要素。