The extreme solar activity during october–november 2003

The positional measurements of sunspots from the Kodaikanal Observatory and Solar Geophysical data are used to study the association between occurrence of the abnormal activities of big sunspot groups that were observed during the period of October–November 2003 and occurrence of the flares. During the evolution of the sunspot groups, we have investigated the temporal variations in (i) areas; (ii) rotation rates; (iii) longitudinal extents; and (iv) number of small spots produced in a sunspot group. Among all these activity variations, we find that the spot groups that experience abnormal rotation rates during their evolutionary phases eventually trigger the flares.     

我国沿海不同气候带山溪性河流沉积物输运特征

近年来许多研究发现山溪性小河流具有瞬时大通量、受极端气候事件控制、沉积物快速输运等特性,但是由于缺乏充足的监测数据和系统总结,其对全球沉积物输运的影响被低估,导致对于这个不同于大河流域的河海交互和风化传输系统的研究是不充分的.揭示不同气候带山溪性河流在自然变化与人类活动共同影响下的沉积物输运特征有助于深入理解地球表生过...     

地面高精度磁测基点联测与数据拼接方法

本文对地面高精度中同年度使用同一基点、同年度使用不同基点、不同年度使用同一基点和不同年度使用不同基点等四种情况进行了讨论,提出了解决办法,并通过实例进行对比,最后对问题进行了归纳和总结.     

Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect

Persistent extreme weather is of high disaster causing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such high impact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite under studied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric low frequency process, the interaction between multi scale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sea land atmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multi perspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such high impact events.     

基于指标规范化的水安全评价组合极值公式

在选取各项指标参照值并设定相应规范变换式的基础上,将参数多元组合算子加以改进,提出适用于多区域、多项指标的、具有普适性的水安全评价组合极值公式,并采用粒子群算法优化公式中的参数。将优化好的具有普适性的组合极值公式应用于实例分析计算,评价结果与其他多种方法的评价结果一致,表明该公式的实用性和可行性。由于基于指标规范化的组合极值公式不受评价指标数目多少的限制,为水安全评价模型的普适化、简单化提供了一条途径。     

粉沙海床管道在联锁排防护下的冲刷试验研究

采用当地海床的天然粉沙进行试验床面的设计,对海底管道在实际海床受到的极限波浪和最大水流作用进行试验,在管道上方铺设混凝土联锁排,对联锁排块体稳定性和其对管道防护的有效性进行研究。通过物理模型试验,研究了在极限波浪和最大水流作用下,管道在粉沙床面最大冲刷深度。通过不同水深中波流条件下研究了混凝土联锁排防护效果及其周围床面的冲刷变化,观测了联锁排的稳定性。试验结果表明:按半经验半理论简化公式得出的联锁排厚度能满足稳定性的要求,比水利部规范计算的联锁排厚度偏大的公式更加适合应用,试验期间混凝土联锁排的排面稳定,能有效保护管道,在该防护下管道没有冲刷,只在联锁排上下游与床面接触的来流段和尾端有冲刷,但该冲刷深度不影响联锁排整体的稳定性。     

φ积分型压缩条件下弱相容映象的几个公共不动点定理

为了强化理论知识的应用,在这篇论文中,利用度量空间中自映象的弱相容性条件,讨论φ积分型压缩条件的公共不动点存在性和唯一性问题,证明了几个新的公共不动点定理,文章改进和发展了Pathk,Verma和张勇等的结果。     

风力发电防雷检测要点

文章基于风力发电机组的结构组成及特点,主要介绍了接地装置、等电位、过电压保护、浪涌保护器的检测方法,风电机组的防雷检测对于其防雷安全非常重要,重点讲解了风机防雷检测的要点和注意事项。     

Detecting Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over China Using a Regional Climate Model with Water Table Dynamics Considered

Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10（number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm d^–1）, RegCM3_Hydro（the regional climate model with water table dynamics considered） simulated rain belts, including those in southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and provided data for arid to semi-arid areas such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. RegCM3_Hydro indicated a significant increasing trend of r95p（days with daily precipitation greater than the 95th percentile of daily amounts） for the Yangtze, Yellow, and Pearl River basins, consistent with r95p observations. The Haihe River Basin was also chosen as a specific case to detect the effect of groundwater on extreme precipitation using peaks over threshold（POT）-based generalized Pareto distribution（GPD） with parameters estimated by the L-moment method. Quantile plots showed that all but a few of the plotted points were distributed near diagonal lines and the modeled data fitted well with the samples. Finally, the effects of water table dynamics on temperature extremes were also evaluated. In the Yellow River Basin and Songhuajiang River Basin, the trends of the number of warm days（TX95n） from RegCM3_Hydro matched observed values more closely when water table dynamics were considered, and clearly increasing numbers of warm days from 1983 to 2001 were detected.     

Quantile Trends in Temperature Extremes in China

A number of recent studies have examined trends in extreme temperature indices using a linear regression model based on ordinary least-squares. In this study, quantile regression was, for the first time, applied to examine the trends not only in the mean but also in all parts of the distribution of several extreme temperature indices in China for the period 1960-2008. For China as a whole, the slopes in almost all the quantiles of the distribution showed a notable increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a significant decrease in the number of cool nights. These changes became much fas- ter as the quantile increased. However, although the number of cool days exhibited a significant decrease in the mean trend estimated by classical linear regression, there was no obvious trend in the upper and lower quantiles. This finding suggests that examining the trends in different parts of the distribution of the time-series is of great importance. The spatial distribution of the trend in the 90th quantile indicated that there was a pronounced increase in the numbers of warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of cool nights for most of China, but especially in the northern and western parts of China, while there was no significant change for the number of cool days at almost all the stations.