广丰局地极端大风的雷达观测与成因分析

利用常规天气资料、自动站资料、江西WebGIS雷达拼图、风廓线雷达等资料,对2020年5月9日发生在江西省上饶市广丰区局地极端大风天气的回波演变特征和形成机理进行分析。结果表明：(1)广丰区国家气象观测站出现的35.5 m·s^-1极端大风,为该站建站以来的历史极值;(2)江西高空具有明显的高层辐散,配合高空槽、低层较强辐合和上干冷下暖湿的层结条件,为风暴发展提供了良好的动力条件;(3)导致广丰区极端大风天气的是A、B单体回波合并为超级单体回波后又发展成弓状回波结构所致;(4)江西东部走廊对大风的影响十分明显;极端大风过境时,具有气压上升,降水增大,风向突变,风速巨变,温度和露点下降等特征;(5)风廓线雷达上1 000 m以上低空突然风向逆转,风速突增是出现地面大风的信号。     

三维极限波的产生方法及特性

极限破碎波浪是造成海洋结构物破坏的主要因素之一,对极限波浪的产生方法和特性进行研究具有重要的工程意义.利用长波传播快、短波传播慢的原理,从理论上给出了产生三维极限波的方法,利用基于Boussinesq方程的数值模拟对该方法进行了验证,同时研究了中心频率、频率宽度和频谱形式等对极限波浪特性的影响,为该方法的进一步应用提出了建议.     

Spatial and temporal groundwater dynamics in extreme arid basins

To accurately obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of groundwater level in an extremely arid zone and its dynamic change patterns under the influence of human activities, based on the data of 55 groundwater observation wells in the middle and lower reaches of the Kriya River, spatial interpolation of regional groundwater level data were performed using the inverse distance weight, spline function, trend surface, and the ordinary kriging methods. The optimal interpolation method was selected by its accuracy to spatially interpolate the groundwater level data in the study area from 2019 to 2021. The results show that: (1) the ordinary kriging method has the highest interpolation accuracy (MAE = 7.1393, MRE = 0.0058, RMSE = 9.4314) and reflects the spatial and temporal variability and distribution characteristics of groundwater levels with great accuracy. (2)The relationship between surface water–groundwater recharge and discharge in different areas of the river channel in the desert section varies depending on geological structure, surface water seepage, and other elements. (3) Groundwater in the Taklamakan Desert has little effect on groundwater recharge in the Dariyabui Oasis, and changes in groundwater dynamics in the oasis are predominantly influenced by surface runoff. (4) Monthly changes in groundwater levels in the Yutian Oasis are continuous, with ‘V’ shaped fluctuations, a declining trend in the southern part, no significant change in the central part, and a slight increase in the northern part. These results contribute to the sustainable management of water resources in the Kriya River Basin, provide a basis for groundwater prediction, and offer a reference for studies of other, similar extreme desert area basins.     

Variation in canopy conductance of Cunninghamia lanceolata forest and its response to environmental factors after an extreme rainfall event

Canopy conductance (g_c) is a crucial parameter in simulating evapotranspiration and modulating water exchange, but its variation mechanism has regional uncertainties and complex environmental co-controls. In addition, the effect of extreme rainfall on g_c cannot be ignored under the changing climate. Here, we investigated the variation and environmental controls on g_c and the effect of extreme rainfall events in a Cunninghamia lanceolata forest across the subtropical area of Southern China. In July 2020, an extreme rainstorm hit the source area of the Xin'an River, with the cumulative rainfall on July 7 and 8 reaching 216.6 mm. The thermal diffusion probe method was used to measure the density of sap flow, and the environmental factors such as air temperature (T_a), net solar radiation (R_n) and soil water content (SWC) were monitored during the growing seasons of 2020 and 2021. Ultimately, g_c obtained by the Penman-Monteith equation was adopted since the result from the Köstner equation was overestimated. g_c showed a unimodal curve on the diurnal scale, and this characteristic was more obvious after the extreme rainfall. Daily g_c appeared a fluctuating pattern with a maximum in summer. g_c was simultaneously affected by T_a, R_n, water vapour pressure difference (VPD), SWC, among which T_a was the most significant driving factor at both the diurnal and daily timescales. The regulation of T_a, VPD and SWC on g_c had obvious thresholds, and the most definite response mode was VPD (2020: 1.25 kPa; 2021: 0.95 kPa). SWC and T_a were the dominant factors after the rainfall period, and the promotion effect of VPD on post-rainy days turned to inhibition effect on typical sunny days. These findings will further reveal the water exchange mechanism between atmosphere and vegetation and impacts of environmental factors in subtropical coniferous forests, especially after the extreme rainfall events.     

1960—2012年中国东部冬季风时期极端降温事件的时空特征

利用1960-2013年中国753个站逐日日平均气温资料,对中国东部冬季风时期极端降温事件进行了定义,并研究了近53 a中国东部冬季风时期极端降温事件的时空特征。结果发现,极端降温事件发生最频繁的地区位于东北南部、华北大部分地区和华中北部,华中南部则较少发生。过去的53个冬季风时期,中国东部极端降温事件普遍减少,且东北南部、华北南部和东部、华中北部以及华东北部的减少趋势最为明显,减小幅度可达0.4~0.8次/（10 a）。此外,东北、华北和华中的极端降温事件发生频次分别在1980、1973、1969年出现了由多到少的突变。极端降温事件的强度也存在空间差异,其平均强度从北到南呈现出强-弱-较强的特点。     

西南地区未来极端降水增加将导致其人口暴露风险加剧

基于CN05.1观测数据和一套经过降尺度偏差校正处理的模式(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)数据,结合泰勒图、GEV极值拟合等方法,综合评估了模式对西南地区极端降水变化的模拟性能,并系统分析了未来西南地区不同重现期的极端降水演变趋势及其人口暴露度变化。结果表明,NEX-GDDP-CMIP6模式及其集合(N-CMIP6-MME)能够较好地再现观测极端降水的时空变化特征,且多模式集合结果优于大多数单个模式。未来西南地区绝大多数区域的降水和极端降水将持续增加,十年一遇、二十年一遇极端降水事件也呈增加趋势,使得未来西南地区人口暴露于不同重现期极端降水的风险进一步增加。相比十年一遇,重现期为20 a的极端降水事件增加速度更快,增加范围更广,模式一致性也更高,对应的人口暴露度增加幅度更大。到2050年左右,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下二十年一遇的RX1day(RX5day)分别增加了175.2%(148.9%)、216.0%(162.4%)、210.9%(156.8%)和274.3%(207.1%),对应人口暴露度分别增加了129.1%(118.8%...     

触发2023年春季中国北方沙尘暴的沙源累积和天气扰动机制

2023年3—4月,我国共出现10次沙尘天气过程,其中3月19—24日和4月9—13日的沙尘过程分别达到强沙尘暴和沙尘暴等级,给人群健康、生态环境和交通运输带来了严重不利影响。后冬至前春的欧亚大气环流异常呈纬向带状分布,导致沙源地的地表气温以及土壤温度持续偏暖、降水整体偏少、蒸散发效应显著。疏松的沙源为春季沙尘天气提供了丰富的物质基础。触发3月19—24日和4月9—13日沙尘暴过程的天气扰动系统都是蒙古气旋,但两次蒙古气旋及其与后部冷高压的配置存在差异,这也直接造成两次沙尘暴过程在强度、路径和持续时间上的差别。此外,本文也从气候累积效应和天气扰动机制两个方面分析了沙尘事件的研究重点,并侧重讨论了开展沙尘次季节-季节以及年代际预测的必要性和关键点。     

ICESat-2/ATLAS全球高程控制点提取与分析

ICEsat-2/ATLAS是目前高程精度最高的星载激光数据,其数据覆盖全球,能够作为生产高精度全球地面参考高程的基础数据.基于ICESat-2/ATLAS全球激光数据产品ATL08,获取了全球ICESat-2陆地高程点,研究了基于参考高程数据和属性参数提取全球高程控制点的方法,并利用高精度参考高程数据验证了其精度.利...     

中低纬度系统相互作用过程的中尺度风场分析

以山东济南和滨州两部S波段多普勒雷达的观测数据为基础,采用直接合成的方法,反演台风“利奇马”和西风槽相遇引发极端降水过程的中尺度系统三维风场。（1）冷暖空气交汇产生的切变线长时间维持是西风槽与台风相互作用过程中产生极端降水的关键,暖空气先进后退,表现为东南气流和西北气流先后越过雷达站,垂直方向出现复合切变;（2）最强上升运动出现在对流单体回波梯度最大的区域,最大下沉运动出现在回波顶下风方,中低层回波中心均为弱风速区;（3）发展中的对流单体各层均有气旋式入流,成熟的对流单体高层出流有反气旋式出流;（4）风垂直切变是雨团降水增幅的主要影响因素,成熟期的雨团具有低质心对流单体风暴的结构形态,垂直运动达到最强。     

峡谷地形对两次极端降水的作用

利用地面加密自动站、常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和两种模式产品,对发生在宜昌峡谷地区2016年7月7日局地极端短时强降水过程和2018年4月22日稳定性极端降水过程形成原因及模式预报性能进行检验分析。结果表明:(1)强的块状回波稳定少动,造成7月7日高效率的对流降水。4月22日降水既有沿山中尺度对流回波造成的对流降水,也有螺旋状涡旋回波形成的锋面层状云降水。(2)山谷风形成中尺度切变线,触发对流,中尺度切变线发展为中尺度涡旋使对流加强是极端短时降水形成的主要原因。(3)地形强迫抬升使对流降水强度明显增大,锋面层状云回波受地形阻挡影响长时间维持是稳定性极端降水形成主要原因。(4)地形相差大的地区模式预报性能差异较大,模式对复杂地形下的对流降水预报偏弱,导致系统强度出现差异,进而影响降水强度预报。