利用VB与Matlab的基准网点稳定性分析程序设计

采用VB与Matlab编程语言,根据平均间隙法与单点位移分量法的基本原理,设计与实现了基准网点稳定性分析程序,并结合某工程的连续三期高程基准点实测数据,对程序进行了测试,取得了良好的效果。     

机载LiDAR旁向重叠区域冗余数据的消除算法

本文基于点云格网化的思想,提出了一种去除机载LiDAR航带间旁向重叠区域冗余数据的算法。该算法使用规则方格表示点云覆盖的区域,通过给网格赋值的方式提取重叠区域的冗余点云,最后删除靠近条带边缘的冗余点云。经过实验测试,该方法能够快速有效地去除重叠区的冗余数据;无需依赖航迹信息,因此也适用于地面激光点云的消冗。     

Empirical statistical characterization and regionalization of amplitude–duration–frequency curves for extreme peak flows in the Lake Victoria Basin,East Africa

Abstract

This paper focuses on a regionalization attempt to partly solve data limitation problems in statistical analysis of high flows to derive discharge–duration–frequency (QDF) relationships. The analysis is based on 24 selected catchments in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa. Characteristics of the theoretical QDF relationships were parameterized to capture their slopes of extreme value distributions (evd), tail behaviour and scaling measures. To enable QDF estimates to be obtained for ungauged catchments, interdependence relationships between the QDF parameters were identified, and regional regression models were developed to explain the regional difference in these parameters from physiographic characteristics. In validation of the regression models, from the lowest (5 years) to the highest (25 years) return periods considered, the percentage bias in the QDF estimates ranged from –2% for the 5-year return period to 27% for 25-year return period.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Discharge variability in Romania using Palmer indices and a simple atmospheric index of large-scale circulation

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to analyse the seasonal characteristics of four Palmer indices calculated on the basis of data from 27 meteorological stations in Romania, and the impact of these indices on river discharges in the period 1931–1998. Our research also tests the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on these indices and on discharge. For each season, developments in the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) and multivariate EOF (MEOF) are achieved. The MEOF representation highlights the overall characteristics of the four Palmer indices. It maximizes specific information for each season compared with individual information of each Palmer index. We then identify geographical areas with homogeneous distribution, taking into account both the discharge distribution and the rotated EOF components of each Palmer index. Finally, we analysed the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation on hydro-climatic events in Romania by means of the Greenland-Balkan Oscillation Index (GBOI), which is shown to have a greater influence on southeastern Europe than the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI).     

Assessment of severity of the extreme River Tyne flood in January 2005 using gauged and historical information

Abstract

The extreme Tyne (Northumbria, UK) flood in January 2005 provided the opportunity to reassess flood risk and to link peak discharge and flooded area to probability of occurrence. However, in spite of the UK guidance on flood risk assessment given in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), there is still considerable subjectivity in deriving risk estimates. A particular problem for the Tyne arises from the effects of river bed gravel extraction both on the reliability of gauged discharges and in the interpretation of historical level data. In addition, attenuation and drawdown of Kielder Water has reduced downstream flood risk since 1982. Estimates from single-site, pooled estimates and historical information are compared. It is concluded that the return period of the observed flood was around 71 years on the lower Tyne and was probably the largest flood since 1815.     

Trivariate generalized extreme value distribution in flood frequency analysis

Abstract

The multivariate extension of the logistic model with generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied to provide a regional at-site flood estimate. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters were obtained numerically by using a multivariable constrained optimization algorithm. The asymptotic results were checked by distribution sampling techniques in order to establish whether or not those results can be utilized for small samples. A region in northern Mexico with 21 gauging stations was selected to apply the model. Results were compared with those obtained by the most popular univariate distributions, the bivariate approach of the logistic model and three regional methods: station-year, index flood and L-moments. These show that there is a reduction in the standard error of fit when estimating the parameters of the marginal distribution with the trivariate distribution instead of its univariate and bivariate counterpart, and differences between at-site and regional at-site design events can be significant as return period increases.     

Extreme Temperature Days in Hong Kong

Extreme temperature days for the period from 1947 to 1998 in Hong Kong were investigated. Significant decreasing trends of both warm and cold days were discovered. Warm days were more variable than cold days. It is found that extreme days were less persistent in the last decade. In winter, cold days were related to the intensified Siberian anticyclone bringing a cold, polar air mass and Northeast monsoon to south China, while zonal flow would create more frequent warm days. In summer, apart from the influence of tropical cyclones to the east or southeast of Hong Kong, the effect of strong and persistent southerly flow was another prominent factor producing extreme temperature days.     

Comparison of daily streamflow forecasts using extreme learning machines and the random forest method

ABSTRACT

Daily streamflow forecasting is a challenging and essential task for water resource management. The main goal of this study was to compare the accuracy of five data-driven models: extreme learning machine (basic ELM), extreme learning machine with kernels (ELM-kernel), random forest (RF), back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and support vector machine (SVR). The results show that the ELM-kernel model provided a superior alternative to the other models, and the basic ELM model had the poorest performance. To further evaluate the predictive capacities of the five models, the estimations of low flow and high flow in the testing dataset were compared. The RF model was slightly superior to the other models in predicting the peak flows, and the ELM-kernel model showed the highest prediction precision of low flows. There was no single model that showed obvious advantages over the other models in this study. Therefore, further exploration is required for the hydrological forecasting problems.     

水平引潮力极值天体时角表征与调制的讨论

讨论了引潮力与中、强地震发生的可能关系。进行了水平引潮力极值条件分析,研究了满足水平引潮力极值条件下的天体时角表征的地震活动可能存在的应力调制。其技术途径是在一定的时窗内,通过地震目录资料的天体时角计算,求出满足水平引潮力极值条件时所出现的调制地震活动场的时空特征,继而研究这些时空特征与未来中强地震三要素的关联,以期获取地震预测信息。     

混凝土小砌块约束砌体结构的抗震性能——基于层间位移的分析

混凝土小砌块约束砌体结构,由于加入芯柱、构造柱、圈梁,使结构整体性提高,因此具有较好的抗震性能和发展前景。通过整理94个混凝土小砌块约束砌体墙片试验数据,考虑权重,统计了混凝土小砌块约束砌体墙片延性系数,给出了延性系数与高度、延性系数比与高宽的关系,同时给出了层间开裂位移角、层间极限位移角公式,以及接近倒塌时混凝土小砌块约束砌体结构层间位移的计算公式,并与一个八层混凝土小砌块约束砌体结构的动力时程分析结果进行了对比,结果显示,最大误差在顶层,为17.7%,因此,所提层间位移计算公式是可以满足工程精度需要的,为混凝土小砌块约束砌体结构基于性态的抗震分析提供参考。