The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.     

基于图斑空间关系的遥感专家分类方法研究

以光谱均质单元——图斑作为空间对象粒度的基本单元，采用图斑邻域搜索算法，获取不同类别图斑间的空间关系。在ERDAS专家分类系统中，根据图斑相邻关系以及DEM信息对初始分类结果进行了修正，提高了湿地、草地和农业用地的分类精度。     

浅谈县局计算机网络维护

对单收站接收机的硬件进行升级后，可在另一台电脑上收看及录制单收站多媒体视频广播；也可在多台电脑上安装Micaps2．0；便于对地面测报网络的维护；电脑系统的维护。     

International Association of Geoanalysts' Protocol for the Certification of Geological and Environmental Reference Materials: A Supplement

The International Association of Geoanalysts (IAG) published a protocol for the certification of reference materials in close accord with the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) guidelines (Kane et al. 2003). This article supplements that protocol, providing additional discussion of best approaches for pre-selecting laboratories for participation in certification projects. This discussion also makes a distinction between inter-laboratory certifications, where n = 15 is the general standard, and expert laboratory certifications, where a much smaller number of laboratories will be deemed qualified to provide data of the quality needed for certification.     

谈《长春市真彩色影像地图集》的设计与编制

地图设计是十分复杂的脑力劳动，是生产地图产品各环节的技术依据，优秀的地图产品必须要有好的技术设计来指导。本文主要通过介绍《长春市真彩色影像地图集》技术设计的编写及影像地图集编制过程畅谈一下自己的体会。     

边坡稳定性优势面分析与专家系统推理策略

文章对边坡稳定性优势面分析与评价的专家系统及其推理策略和实现过程进行了阐述;并对在实现过程及实际应用中的技术问题进行了探讨。     

矿床统计预测单元划分的方法与程序

在矿床统计预测中,如何确定最佳的统计预测单元,目前尚无通用的准则和算法,它的划分往往取决于地质学家对研究区控矿条件的认识,矿化的实际分布殂态及统计预测所采用的评价模型等多种因素。系统功能齐全,基本上满足了资源评价的各种需求,实现了预测单元划分的自动化和智能化。     

刍议《重庆历史地图集》第二卷的编制

以《重庆历史地图集》第二卷编制的具体情况为例,对图集的开本设计、内容结构设计、封面和版式设计、整体设计、创新源,以及图集编制取得的经验进行了论述,为以后类似图集的编制提供参考。     

Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.     

Bayesian area-to-point kriging using expert knowledge as informative priors

Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example. The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.