Integration of remote sensing,county-level census,and machine learning for century-long regional cropland distribution data reconstruction

The Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) was home to about ten million hectare bottomland hardwood (BLH) forests in the Southern U.S. It experienced over 80 % area loss of the BLH forests in the past centuries and large-scale afforestation in recent decades. Due to the lack of a high-resolution cropland dataset, impacts of land use change (LUC) on the LMAV ecosystem services have not been fully understood. In this study, we developed a novel framework by integrating the machine learning algorithm, county-level agricultural census, and satellite-based cropland products to reconstruct the LMAV cropland distribution during 1850–2018 at a 30-m resolution. Results showed that the LMAV cropland area increased from 0.78 × 10⁴ km² in 1850 to 6.64 × 10⁴ km² in 1980 and then decreased to 6.16 × 10⁴ km² in 2018. Cropland expansion rate was the largest in the 1960s (749 km² yr⁻¹) but decreased rapidly thereafter, whereas cropland abandonment rate increased substantially in recent decades with the largest rate of 514 km² yr⁻¹ in the 2010s. Our dataset has three notable features: (1) the depiction of fine spatial details, (2) the integration of the county-level census, and (3) the inclusion of a machine-learning algorithm trained by satellite-based land cover product. Most importantly, our dataset well captured the continuous increasing trend in cropland area from 1930–1960, which was misrepresented by other cropland datasets reconstructed from the state-level census. Our dataset would be important to accurately evaluate the impacts of historical deforestation and recent afforestation efforts on regional ecosystem services, attribute the observed hydrological changes to anthropogenic and natural driving factors, and investigate how the socioeconomic factors control regional LUC pattern. Our framework and dataset are crucial to developing managerial and policy strategies for conserving natural resources and enhancing ecosystem services in the LMAV.     

顾及地类转换差异的城市空间扩展元胞自动机模型及应用研究

元胞自动机模型已经成为城市空间扩展模拟研究的重要方法之一,并得到广泛应用。然而,现有的城市扩展元胞自动机模型仍存在不足。由于元胞状态设置较为简单,从而使模型转换规则中对不同用地类型向城市用地转换的差异与强度考虑不够。基于此本文在元胞自动机模型的框架下,设计了多元结构的元胞状态及转换规则,提出了顾及地类转换差异与强度的城市扩展元胞自动机模型。在计算非城市用地向城市用地转换的转换概率时,该模型考虑了3个方面的概率：① 地形地貌、经济发展等城市发展的驱动因素对城市用地扩展的影响概率,该概率采用logistics方法进行计算;② 邻域元胞的用地类型对中心元胞转换概率的影响,该概率采用扩展摩尔型方法进行计算;③ 不同类型的非城市用地（本研究中包括耕地、林地和裸地3种类型）向城市用地转换的强度,该概率由模拟基期土地利用数据与目标年份土地利用数据的叠加,得出不同类型的非城市用地在此时间段内向城市用地转换的规模,进而确定不同类型的非城市用地向城市用地转换的强度。最后,将以上3种概率的乘积作为元胞转换的概率。通过转换概率与转换阈值的对比判断中心元胞是否在下一个阶段转换为城市用地。经过迭代计算,不断增加城市用地元胞的数量。当模拟城市用地的结果与目标年份的城市用地规模差值在一定的范围内时停止模拟,得出最终结果。模型构建完成后,本文以长株潭城市群核心区为例进行了模拟实验。以2001年该地区的土地利用数据为基期数据,模拟2010年该地区的城市用地规模和空间分布。研究结果表明,根据本文提出的模型模拟的城市扩展结果与真实数据相比具有较高的一致性。模拟结果正确率达到68.66%,比基于传统logistics回归的元胞自动机模型的模拟精度提高了4.25%,Kappa系数为0.675。该模型较好地模拟了长株潭城市群核心区城市扩展,在城市空间扩展模拟中具有较好的适应性与有效性。     

近20年京津唐地区不透水面变化的遥感监测

不透水面是衡量城市化程度的重要指标之一,对京津唐城市群的不透水面进行深入研究,可以量化城市群扩张过程及其影响,对该区域多城市协调发展及规划布局具有重要意义。本文结合高分辨遥感影像、生长季及落叶季的Landsat TM遥感影像和夜间灯光数据等,采用分类和回归树（Classification and rRegression Tree, CART）算法,构建了适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的技术方案,获取了京津唐地区1995-2016年共5期地表不透水面盖度专题信息,并分析了地表不透水面的时空演变规律,结论为：① 适于京津唐地区不透水面盖度提取的CART算法的最佳输入变量组合为：生长季和落叶季的Landsat TM图像以及对应的夜间灯光数据;其次为生长季Landsat TM遥感图像和夜间灯光数据组合方案。利用该组合方案,ISP估算输出结果的交叉验证精度R值可以达到约0.85,可以满足地表不透水面纵向对比分析的需要。② 从地表不透水面总面积数量值来看,1995-2016年京津唐主体城市区域整体上呈增长趋势,其中2011-2016年地表不透水面积增加愈加明显;③ 从地表不透水面盖度值的高低来看,1995-2016年京津唐中、高盖度不透水面的占比都是在不断增长的,低盖度不透水面占比存在少量下降现象,且京、津、唐3城市的主体城区各阶段变化差异较大,反映出了各城市扩张具有各自不同的时空演变特征。     

“海上丝绸之路”超大城市环境变化遥感分析

随着城市化进程的加快,如何及时、精确地对城市环境的变化做出评价,进而制定出合理的发展方案,对城市可持续发展至关重要。本文综合利用卫星遥感获取的PM_2.5浓度数据、地表温度数据（Land Surface Temperature,LST）、植被指数数据（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）及城市用地辅助信息数据,基于综合评价指标,分析海上丝绸之路沿线12个超大城市地区2000-2013年环境质量的动态变化。研究结果表明,2000-2013年,海上丝绸之路沿线约75%的超大城市呈现出不同程度的环境恶化现象。12个超大城市用地环境恶化及逐步恶化面积占研究区域总面积的31.33%（4732.39 km²）。2000-2013年,城市扩张用地恶化和逐步恶化面积约占总扩张用地的29.48%（3765.83 km²）。平均地表温度的上升、植被覆盖度的急剧下降及PM_2.5浓度的增加均对海上丝绸之路沿线超大城市环境质量变化产生影响。其中,空气中PM_2.5浓度的大幅度增加是2000-2013年海上丝绸之路沿线超大城市扩张用地环境退化的主要原因。     

福建省城市扩张与经济增长的互动关系研究

基于2000~2015年福建省9个设区市的城市建成区面积与非农GDP的历史数据,根据生态位理论将9个设区市分为4个等级,结合库兹涅兹曲线分析、协整检验及Granger因果关系分析、脱钩分析3种方法对不同等级城市之间的城市扩张和经济发展的互动关系进行了研究。研究表明:福建省城市生态位呈现东高西低,南高北低的空间格局;9个设区市均符合广义的库兹涅兹曲线关系,但只有高生态位城市全部符合倒“U”型曲线关系;福建省多数城市用地扩张与经济增长之间的Granger因果关系受区位、政策和决策等因素影响并不明显;福建省9个设区市的脱钩关系主要呈现为增长负脱钩、弱脱钩、强脱钩和增长连接4类,绝大多数城市多数时期以弱脱钩状态为主。     

Urban three-dimensional expansion and its driving forces —A case study of Shanghai, China

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase, and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization. Taking Shanghai as an example, the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city’s vertical and horizontal increases respectively, and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion. The research drew following conclusions: 1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature, and could be divided into three stages: vertical expansion in dominance, coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion, and horizontal expansion in dominance. 2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs, but the changing speed of the latter was faster. And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city’s horizontal expansion, while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion. Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city’s political factors.     

非球形轴对称粒子光散射的散射矩阵元素展开系数的数值计算

扼要地介绍了非球形粒子光散射的散射矩阵元素按广义球函数展开的基本理论,以及球形粒子散射矩阵元素间的关系。在此基础上较详细地阐述了计算展开系数的方法以及在程序研制中所遇到的一些问题。最后,对非球形的Ｃｈｅｂｙｓｈｅｖ粒子光散射的散射矩阵元素的展开系数进行了计算,结果表明数值技术和计算的正确性。     

超导SIS混频器空间应用发射锁定机构热胀特性测量研究

高灵敏度太赫兹探测模块(High Sensitivity Terahertz Detection Module, HSTDM)是中国空间巡天望远镜---巡天光学设施的后端模块之一, 其核心探测器采用可工作于10K温区的氮化铌超导SIS (Superconductor Insulator Superconductor)混频器. 超导SIS混频前端的锁定机构在力学和热学方面需相应的特殊设计, 以应对发射阶段的力学振动以及工作运行阶段的隔热要求. 为了确认在80K温区锁定机构与混频器前端有效分离, 针对超导SIS混频前端发射锁定机构所用特氟龙材料热胀特性, 开展基于低温LVDT (Linear Variable Differential Transformer)测量和标记划痕法测量以及两种测量方法交叉验证. LVDT实验测量结果表明特氟龙材料收缩率随温度变化与理论模型基本一致, 在80K测得材料收缩率为1.86%. 据此分析, 超导SIS混频前端锁定机构在\lk 80K温度下可与10K冷级的超导SIS混频前端实现有效分离.     

Spatial structure and land use control in Extended Metropolitan Region of Zhujiang River Delta,China

The Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta is one of the most developed Extended Metropolitan Regions (EMR) in China.With the rapid urbanization,the agglomeration of population and industries has emerged,which has led to dramatic changes of spatial structure and land use in this region.With data of high resolution TM remote sensing images and Google Earth maps,this paper identified and analyzed the spatial pattern of the Zhujiang River Delta EMR using Envy and ArcGIS tools.It was found that 1) the industrial land uses were expanding substantially,particularly on the bank sides of the Zhujiang River estuary;2) large-scale housing developments were concentrated in the fringe of metropolitan areas such as those of Guangzhou and Shenzhen;3) a regional transportation network with the spatial pattern of ″1 circle +2 pieces + 3 axes″ had significantly affected the location choice of manufacture enterprises.At the same time,both highly specialized land use and severely mixed land use patterns were identified.As a consequence of the latter,land use efficiency of the whole EMR areas was reduced.Moreover,ecologic and environmental problems were severe.Based on the above analysis,suggestions were given from the viewpoint of spatial safety,land use efficiency,and the reorganization of spatial structure in the Zhujiang River Delta EMR.     

Conventions on thermal expansion modelling of radio telescopes for geodetic and astrometric VLBI

Thermal expansion of radio telescopes has long been recognized as an effect which cannot be neglected in geodetic and astrometric VLBI data analysis if millimeter accuracy is desired. In this article, the author documents the conventions which are being set by the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for a consistent modelling of this effect in its routine product generation. For the largest telescopes, the annual cycle of thermal expansion may change the height of the VLBI reference point by as much as 20 mm. However, for telescopes which are used in present-day IVS operations, the variations rather range from 4 to 6 mm.