Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Volcanic Tremor Events Recorded at Sangay Volcano,Ecuador

The assumption that volcanic tremor may be generated by deterministic nonlinear source processes is now supported by a number of studies at different volcanoes worldwide that clearly demonstrate the low-dimensional nature of the phenomenon. We applied methods based on the theory of nonlinear dynamics to volcanic tremor events recorded at Sangay volcano, Ecuador in order to obtain more information regarding the physics of their source mechanism. The data were acquired during 21–26 April 1998 and were recorded using a sampling interval of 125 samples s^–1 by two broadband seismometers installed near the active vent of the volcano. In a previous study Johnson and Lees (2000) classified the signals into three groups: (1) short duration (<1 min) impulses generated by degassing explosions at the vent; (2) extended degassing chugging events with a duration 2–5 min containing well-defined integer overtones (1–5 Hz) and variable higher frequency content; (3) extended degassing events that contain significant energy above 5 Hz. We selected 12 events from groups 2 and 3 for our analysis that had a duration of at least 90 s and high signal-to-noise ratios. The phase space, which describes the evolution of the behavior of a nonlinear system, was reconstructed using the delay embedding theorem suggested by Takens. The delay time used for the reconstruction was chosen after examining the first zero crossing of the autocorrelation function and the first minimum of the Average Mutual Information (AMI) of the data. In most cases it was found that both methods yielded a delay time of 14–18 samples (0.112–0.144 s) for group 2 and 5 samples (0.04 s) for group 3 events. The sufficient embedding dimension was estimated using the false nearest neighbors method which had a value of 4 for events in group 2 and was in the range 5–7 for events in group 3. Based on these embedding parameters it was possible to calculate the correlation dimension of the resulting attractor, as well as the average divergence rate of nearby orbits given by the largest Lyapunov exponent. Events in group 2 exhibited lower values of both the correlation dimension (1.8–2.6) and largest Lyapunov exponent (0.013–0.022) in comparison with the events in group 3 where the values of these quantities were in the range 2.4–3.5 and 0.029–0.043, respectively. Theoretically, a nonlinear oscillation described by the equation ++g(x)=fcost can generate deterministic signals with characteristics similar to those observed in groups 2 and 3 as the values of the parameters ,,f, are drifting, causing instability of orbits in the phase space.     

基于生态事件序列的时态关联规则挖掘

本文分析了时态关联规则挖掘的相关定义,介绍了强时态关联规则挖掘的步骤,设计并实现了基于时间约束的T-Apriori算法。提出了生态事件和生态时间序列的概念,以我国南海大亚湾海域的赤潮现象为例,研究了基于生态事件序列的时态关联规则挖掘问题。     

试论未来极端气候事件发展趋势的不确定性

极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件（PETM）,第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随＂全球变暖＂而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于＂气候变暖＂既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势.     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.     

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.     

地下流体数据跟踪事件质量分析

以地下流体数据跟踪分析产出事件为研究对象,总结数据跟踪分析工作现状,从观测系统故障、自然环境、场地环境、人为干扰、地球物理、不明原因事件6个方面,分析2019年地下流体数据跟踪分析存在的问题,并对典型事件进行总结,为地震台站跟踪分析事件记录提供参考。     

2007 Mutual events within the binary system of (22) Kalliope

In 2007, the asteroid Kalliope will reach one of its annual equinoxes. As a consequence, its small satellite Linus orbiting in the equatorial plane will undergo a season of mutual eclipses and occultations very similar to the one that the Galilean satellites undergo every 6 years. This paper is aimed at preparing a campaign of observations of these mutual events occurring from February to May 2007. This opportunity occurs only under favorable geometric conditions when the Sun and/or the Earth are close to the orbital plane of the system. This is the first international campaign devoted to the observation of photometric events within an asynchronous asteroidal binary system. We took advantage of a reliable orbit solution of Linus to predict a series of 24 mutual eclipses and 12 mutual occultations observable in the spring of 2007. Thanks to the brightness of Kalliope (m_v?11), these observations are easy to perform even with a small telescope. Anomalous attenuation events could be observed lasting for about 1-3 h with amplitude up to 0.09 mag. The attenuations are of two distinct types that can clearly be identified as primary and secondary eclipses similar to those that have been previously observed in other minor planet binary systems [Pravec, P., Scheirich, P., Kusnirák, P., Sarounová, L., Mottola, S., Hahn, G., Brown, P., Esquerdo, G., Kaiser, N., Krzeminski, Z., Pray, D.P., Warner, B.D., Harris, A.W., Nolan, M.C., Howell, E.S., Benner, L.A.M., Margot, J.-L., Galád, A., Holliday, W., Hicks, M.D., Krugly, Yu.N., Tholen, D., Whiteley, R., Marchis, F., Degraff, D.R., Grauer, A., Larson, S., Velichko, F.P., Cooney, W.R., Stephens, R., Zhu, J., Kirsch, K., Dyvig, R., Snyder, L., Reddy, V., Moore, S., Gajdos, S., Világi, J., Masi, G., Higgins, D., Funkhouser, G., Knight, B., Slivan, S., Behrend, R., Grenon, M., Burki, G., Roy, R., Demeautis, C., Matter, D., Waelchli, N., Revaz, Y., Klotz, A., Rieugné, M., Thierry, P., Cotrez, V., Brunetto, L., Kober, G., 2006. Photometric survey of binary near-Earth asteroids. Icarus 181, 63-93]. With these favorable circumstances, such photometric observations will provide us tight constraints regarding physical properties of Linus such as the size, shape and synodic spin period.     

川江中坝遗址5000年来洪水事件研究

川江中坝遗址自然地层与文化层测年、粒度分析及其与长江沿岸现代洪积物粒度分析对比研究表明,中坝遗址自然沉积层为多期洪水泛滥成因.文化层中大量破碎陶罐、瓦片以及窑址的发现,结合实地调查表明当时遗址区主要以制盐为主.一定数量未燃尽的段木的发现,表明人们为制盐或烧制陶器而砍伐树木,导致水土流失与生态恶化,水土流失导致河床淤积,储水量减少,从而加重洪灾程度、加剧河床演变.频繁的洪水泛滥使研究区河床发生较大变化,使遗址从河岸孤立出去,成为河中心的一个孤岛.