Comparison of Constant and Time-variant Optimal Forcing Approaches in El Nio Simulations by Using the Zebiak–Cane Model

Model errors offset by constant and time-variant optimal forcing vector approaches(termed COF and OFV, respectively)are analyzed within the framework of El Nio simulations. Applying the COF and OFV approaches to the well-known Zebiak–Cane model, we re-simulate the 1997 and 2004 El Nio events, both of which were poorly degraded by a certain amount of model error when the initial anomalies were generated by coupling the observed wind forcing to an ocean component. It is found that the Zebiak–Cane model with the COF approach roughly reproduced the 1997 El Nio, but the 2004 El Nio simulated by this approach defied an ENSO classification, i.e., it was hardly distinguishable as CP-El Nio or EP-El Nio. In both El Nio simulations, substituting the COF with the OFV improved the fit between the simulations and observations because the OFV better manages the time-variant errors in the model. Furthermore, the OFV approach effectively corrected the modeled El Nio events even when the observational data(and hence the computational time) were reduced.Such a cost-effective offset of model errors suggests a role for the OFV approach in complicated CGCMs.     

A total error-based multiquadric method for surface modeling of digital elevation models

Digital elevation model (DEM) source data are subject to both horizontal and vertical errors owing to improper instrument operation, physical limitations of sensors, and bad weather conditions. These factors may bring a negative effect on some DEM-based applications requiring low levels of positional errors. Although classical smoothing interpolation methods have the ability to handle vertical errors, they are prone to omit horizontal errors. Based on the statistical concept of the total least squares method, a total error-based multiquadric (MQ-T) method is proposed in this paper to reduce the effects of both horizontal and vertical errors in the context of DEM construction. In nature, the classical multiquadric (MQ) method is a vertical error regression procedure, whereas MQ-T is an orthogonal error regression model. Two examples, including a numerical test and a real-world example, are employed in a comparative performance analysis of MQ-T for surface modeling of DEMs. The numerical test indicates that MQ-T performs better than the classical MQ in terms of root mean square error. The real-world example of DEM construction with sample points derived from a total station instrument demonstrates that regardless of the sample interval and DEM resolution, MQ-T is more accurate than classical interpolation methods including inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and Australian National University DEM. Therefore, MQ-T can be considered as an alternative interpolator for surface modeling with sample points subject to both horizontal and vertical errors.     

正规矩阵选取半参数灰色模型改进的预测建模

正规矩阵是对模型误差补偿性的直接表达,时间序列法用一阶差分方程和二阶差分方程计算得到不同的正规矩阵。针对传统GM(1,1)模型没有考虑模型误差,而数据处理过程中所建立的数学模型与客观现实并不一致的问题,该文提出建立顾及模型误差的半参数模型的GM(1,1)模型。对由传统半参数模型得到的正规矩阵采取一阶差分法进行改进,并通过算例证实了改进正规矩阵的半参数模型的GM(1,1)预测精度更高。     

飞思IQ180相机的组合相机设计与分析

针对当前大多UAV搭载单个数码相机进行摄影测量时存在的实际问题,详细分析了多面阵组合相机的结构设计。以飞思IQ180相机为例,通过比较双拼组合相机与三拼组合相机的组合方式及各自成像特点,对其相机的组合参数以及相应关系进行探讨;并通过对拼接误差与高程精度的影响分析,得出组合相机对高程精度的提高、增大像幅、提高作业效率等方面有明显的优越性,对多面阵数码相机的设计具有一定的指导意义。     

Measures of transport mode segmentation of trajectories

ABSTRACT

Rooted in the philosophy of point- and segment-based approaches for transportation mode segmentation of trajectories, the measures that researchers have adopted to evaluate the quality of the results (1) are incomparable across approaches, hence slowing the progress in the field and (2) do not provide insight about the quality of the continuous transportation mode segmentation. To address these problems, this paper proposes new error measures that can be applied to measure how well a continuous transportation mode segmentation model performs. The error measures introduced are based on aligning multiple inferred continuous intervals to ground truth intervals, and measure the cardinality of the alignment and the spatial and temporal discrepancy between the corresponding aligned segments. The utility of this new way of computing errors is shown by evaluating the segmentation of three generic transportation mode segmentation approaches (implicit, explicit–holistic, and explicit–consensus-based transport mode segmentation), which can be implemented in a thick client architecture. Empirical evaluations on a large real-word data set reveal the superiority of explicit–consensus-based transport mode segmentation, which can be attributed to the explicit modeling of segments and transitions, which allows for a meaningful decomposition of the complex learning task.     

T639预报气温产品误差分析与订正

由于T639数值预报模式对具体区域预报有一定偏差,为了更好的利用该模式做出山东即墨本区域各自动站气温预报,制定订正方法,将订正方法运用到实际业务中,推广到相关单位,提高气温预报准确率,本文利用2013年1月至2015年12月山东省即墨市8个区域自动站的最高(低)气温实况和对应的T639数值预报24小时2m气温预报产品进行了日最高(低)气温的预报准确率、相对误差分析,并结合风向风速预报结论和地形分区,运用综合订正、季节订正、风向订正和风速订正4种误差订正方法,在对比检验的基础上,得出如下结论:在4种订正方法中,预报准确率最高为综合订正方法。     

一种闭合条件约束的全局最优多视点云配准方法

针对已有多视点云配准存在的问题,提出了一种严密的闭合条件约束配准方法。该方法首先采用"点-切平面"迭代最近点算法分别求解各对应点云间的坐标转换参数;再以单站点云为配准单元,并将转换参数视为随机观测值构建条件方程,采用条件平差方法对转换参数作改正以达到全局最优。通过地面三维激光扫描仪实测两组点云数据进行试验,验证了该方法有效且可行。试验结果表明,对采样间隔为毫米级和厘米级的点云,增加扫描重叠度能够提高配准精度和可靠性。     

航空重力GPS测速多粗差探测方法

GPS速度测量在航空重力测量中具有重要的作用。根据飞机平稳飞行的状态,建立了严密的状态方程,利用常加速度模型的速度预测值,构建了观测值验前残差检验量Q,并给出其误差源:观测误差与速度预测误差,根据检验量Q的统计特性结合IGGⅢ抗差方案,对含粗差的观测值作降权处理。采用静态数据分析观测误差的统计特性,并给出其模型参数,同时分析了理想运动状态下的速度预测精度以及数据采样率与新方法粗差探测能力之间的关系。通过静态和动态算例表明,新方法能有效探测出小于1周的粗差。     

改进的果蝇优化与Tikhonov正则化相结合的病态问题稳健解法

在对基本果蝇优化算法的优化流程进行深入分析的基础上,通过改变其随机搜索方向与增加搜索半径调整系数,给出了一种改进的果蝇优化算法(IFOA)。并在IFOA算法的目标函数中引入正则化项,提出了将IFOA算法与Tikhonov正则化方法进行结合以进行病态问题解算的方法。通过实例分析表明:该方法的解算精度要优于遗传算法和单一的Tikhonov正则化方法;在观测值含有粗差时,使用最小二乘法进行求解,其结果与真值的偏差会迅速增大,而此时本文方法的解算结果具有一定的稳健性。与以遗传算法为代表的智能搜索方法相比,本文方法具有参数设置少、计算速度快、寻优过程简单等特点,在病态问题解算中更具有实用性。     

姿态模式切换期间QZSS卫星轨道及其钟差产品特性分析

导航卫星姿态控制模式切换对精密定轨解算得到的轨道和钟差均有较大影响。本文首先从理论上分析了卫星偏航姿态及其对精密定轨的影响,然后分别以卫星激光测距检核和钟差多项式拟合的方法对IGS MGEX分析中心的QZSS卫星轨道和钟差产品精度进行评价,最后以谱分析方法和改进阿伦方差揭示了卫星钟差的周期特性。基于2014年全年的QZSS卫星轨道和钟差产品的研究表明,一年内有两次长约20 d的地影季,太阳角呈现半年周期的波动;QZSS卫星在低太阳角时有零偏保护,其卫星轨道和钟差精度都与太阳角有显著相关性;卫星钟差具有与轨道周期相近的周期项,且周期项振幅与太阳角的大小也具有相关性,表明现有的定轨策略存在不足。考虑到QZSS与目前北斗星座中IGSO和MEO卫星姿态控制模式的相似性,该结论对于研究我国BDS姿态切换期间的精密定轨有一定参考价值。