Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

Precise revision of the garnet-muscovite geothermometer

The garnet-muscovite geothermometer was refined through empirical calibration by using natural rocks metamorphosed under the physical conditions of 238—1306 MPa and 490—700℃. Input temperatures and pressures were determined through simultaneously applying the garnet-biotite geothermometer and the garnet-biotite-plagioclase-quartz barometer, assuming that all FeO in muscovite and garnet be ferrous. Garnet was treated as the asymmetric quaternary solid solution, and muscovite as the symmetric binary solid solution. Input muscovite compositions include Fe atoms between 0.03—0.19 and Mg atoms between 0.04—0.16 on the basis of 11 oxygen atoms, and input garnet compositions include spessartine fractions between 0.01—0.289, grossular fractions between 0.028—0.273, and the Fe/Mg ratio between 3.387-18.986. The resulting garnet-muscovite geothermometer reproduces temperatures within (50℃ compared with the garnet-biotite thermometer. Total random error of ±37℃ of the new thermometer may stem from the pressure uncertainty of ±200 MPa, and uncertainties of ±5% of Fe and Mg components in muscovite, and ±5% of Fe, Mg, Mn and Ca components in garnet, altogether. When there exist 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% Fe3+ in muscovite, respectively, the computed garnet-muscovite temperatures will be 1—6℃, 2—12℃, 3—16℃, 5—24℃ and 7—29℃, respectively, lower than those obtained when assuming that all FeO be ferrous. The new garnet-muscovite geothermometer can efficiently reflect temperature change of typical prograde sequences and contact aureole rocks, and may be applied to low- to high-grade and low- to high-pressure metamorphic rocks.     

GPS在地面沉降监测中的应用探讨

利用GPS进行地面沉降监测能够解决传统测量方法工作量大、周期长的问题。该文结合实例，论述了GPS在地面沉降监测中的应用，分析了GPS测量方法的优点和误差，提出了GPS测量地面沉降的适用条件。     

Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate Migration‐Flow Datasets*

With the elimination of the long‐form questionnaire from future decennial censuses and its replacement by a much smaller continuous monthly sampling survey (the American Community Survey), students of territorial mobility may find it necessary to deal with inadequate, missing, or inaccurate sample data on migration by adopting an approach that “improves” such data using information from different geographical areas, time periods, and data sources. We develop such an approach in this article and illustrate it with interregional migration flow data reported by the U.S. decennial censuses of 1980 and 1990 and by the 1985 Current Population Survey.     

机械卡盘设计中的计算误差分析与应用

通过对普通机构二维力因素影响的分析，利用修正公式计算求值，以修正单因素影响最大值计算所产生的误差。利用这一计算方法，对CD—3型钻机卡盘进行了计算，得到了正确的设计结果，说明用修正公式对多因素影响采用单因素影响最大值计算进行修正是可行的。     

扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的研究和实践

通过对扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的研究和实践，提出了在上海地区采用扁铲侧胀试验判别液化的公式，扁铲侧胀试验判别液化与标准贯入和静力触探试验判别液化的方法对比，具有相对较好的结果，是一种有前途的液化判别方法。     

两种方法在地下水位估值中的应用

对于许多区域水资源问题,用数值方法进行潜水水流模拟时,需要给出每个节点上地下水位值。本文首先简单介绍了趋势面方法,然后着重阐述了泛克里格方法的基本原理及它们在地下水位估值中的应用,通过比较两种方法的计算结果可以得出泛克里格方法是进行地下水位估值的空间最优估计方法。     

软土大变形固结计算中参数识别的遗传算法

含水量很高的饱和软土在外荷载作用下沉降很大,小变形分析误差太大,必须通过大变形非线性固结计算来模拟。遗传算法是一种全局优化和搜索的仿生算法。近年来随着工程领域中复杂的大规模非线性系统的出现,遗传算法日益得到青睐,目前已经广泛应用到各个领域中。本文对遗传算法做了改进,主要体现在杂交算子的选取和轮盘赌模型的模拟退火拉伸,并将其用于饱和软土的大变形固结分析,解决其中的关键参数识别问题。研究表明该方法是行之有效的,值得进一步研究探索。     

全站仪轴系补偿原理及检验方法探讨

全面阐述了全站仪的轴系补偿相关理论和实践，指出了我国检验规程的不足之处，提出了改进方法。