DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.     

预测矿井涌水量的计算级别与精度评述

根据水利部2005年发布的《建设项目水资源论证导则（试行）》技术文件中的有关规定与要求,参照《供水水文地质勘察规范》以及《固体矿产资源/储量分类,》认为地下水可开采量与预测矿井涌水量的计算可按勘查研究程度,将其可分为A、B、C、D、E等5个精度等级。参照各级别的允许误差,论证了目前矿井涌水量预测计算公式及方法的可靠程度。     

A computational method for approximating a Darcy–Stokes system governing a vuggy porous medium

We develop and analyze a mixed finite element method for the solution of an elliptic system modeling a porous medium with large cavities, called vugs. It consists of a second-order elliptic (i.e., Darcy) equation on part of the domain coupled to a Stokes equation on the rest of the domain, and a slip boundary condition (due to Beavers–Joseph–Saffman) on the interface between them. The tangential velocity is not continuous on the interface. We consider a 2-D vuggy porous medium with many small cavities throughout its extent, so the interface is not isolated. We use a certain conforming Stokes element on rectangles, slightly modified near the interface to account for the tangential discontinuity. This gives a mixed finite element method for the entire Darcy–Stokes system with a regular sparsity pattern that is easy to implement, independent of the vug geometry, as long as it aligns with the grid. We prove optimal global first-order L ² convergence of the velocity and pressure, as well as the velocity gradient in the Stokes domain. Numerical results verify these rates of convergence and even suggest somewhat better convergence in certain situations. Finally, we present a lower dimensional space that uses Raviart–Thomas elements in the Darcy domain and uses our new modified elements near the interface in transition to the Stokes elements.     

Interpretation of a two-point flux stencil for skew parallelogram grids

Control-volume formulations for elliptic equations often use two-point flux stencils, even for skew grids. Any two-point flux stencil may be interpreted as a multipoint flux stencil. This yields a definition of the permeability (or conductivity) tensor. Formulas for calculating the permeability tensor, based on the user-specified quantities in the two-point flux stencil, are given. Numerical test examples demonstrate the validity of the derivation.      

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity II: the discrete-in-time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a discrete-in-time setting. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity I: the continuous in time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a continuous in-time setting for a strictly positive constrained specific storage coefficient. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation, and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

利用测日实现快速天文定向

介绍了天文方位角测量原理,给出了实用的计算太阳视位置的方法;研究了在白天恒星无法应用的情况下,利用电子经纬仪测日进行快速天文定向及方位角测量,给出了具体的实施方法及数据解算过程,并对实际测量数据进行了精度分析。     

Best prediction in linear models with mixed integer/real unknowns: theory and application

In this contribution, we extend the existing theory of minimum mean squared error prediction (best prediction). This extention is motivated by the desire to be able to deal with models in which the parameter vectors have real-valued and/or integer-valued entries. New classes of predictors are introduced, based on the principle of equivariance. Equivariant prediction is developed for the real-parameter case, the integer-parameter case, and for the mixed integer/real case. The best predictors within these classes are identified, and they are shown to have a better performance than best linear (unbiased) prediction. This holds true for the mean squared error performance, as well as for the error variance performance. We show that, in the context of linear model prediction, best predictors and best estimators come in pairs. We take advantage of this property by also identifying the corresponding best estimators. All of the best equivariant estimators are shown to have a better precision than the best linear unbiased estimator. Although no restrictions are placed on the probability distributions of the random vectors, the Gaussian case is derived separately. The best predictors are also compared with least-squares predictors, in particular with the integer-based least-squares predictor introduced in Teunissen (J Geodesy, in press, 2006).     

基于纠错编码的小波域自适应盲水印算法

提出了一种小波域自适应盲水印算法,并采用(7,4)汉明码技术进行纠错编码。以伪随机二值序列作为水印,采用中值系数抖动的方法将水印嵌入到小波变换后的低频分量,并且根据小波域系数间隔的大小自适应地确定水印量化步长,水印检测过程不需要原始图像的参与。实验结果表明,算法的自适应性强,具有较好的不可见性,且可以有效地抵抗JPEG压缩、锐化、加噪、模糊和缩放等攻击。     

GPS信号跟踪的多径影响分析与仿真

多径信号是GPS定位的主要误差源之一。码和载波跟踪环是GPS接收机的重要组成部分，它们直接决定了接收机的性能，因此当前多径消除技术研究的核心即是从跟踪环内部着手研究。本文仔细分析了GPS接收机信号跟踪环以及多径信号对跟踪精度的影响，对伪距码与载波相位多径误差进行了比较，并且通过仿真结果和图表阐明了码和载波相位多径误差之间的协同关系。