基于Java的地震应急流动测震及强震动自动化产出系统

采用Java和MySQL设计一套地震应急流动测震及强震动自动化产出系统,系统主要产出震中位置图、监测能力图、故障台站分布图、流动台站分布图、加速度峰值分布图、速度峰值分布图、仪器烈度分布图等以及各类表格文字。基于该系统,可以有效提高震后应急流动测震台站、故障台站、监测能力、强震动加速度峰值、速度峰值以及仪器烈度等图件的产出速度。     

县(市)地震应急能力综合评价中指标无量纲化方法探讨——以云南省为例

基于综合评价方法对县（市）地震应急能力进行评价的先决条件是将采用的指标标准化。目前,尽管数据标准化方法多样,但对于不同指标标准化方法的优劣选取尚无统一的评判标准。在利用综合评价方法评价具体对象的相关研究中,对于标准化方法的选择通常是根据评价对象的性质和选取指标的特点采取具体问题具体分析的策略。本文以云南省125个县（市）的相关指标数据,采取不同的指标无量纲化方法计算县（市）地震应急能力综合指数,对比研究不同的综合评价结果差异,对县（市）地震应急能力综合评价模型中的指标标准化方法进行初步探讨。     

中小学校疏散演练人员疏散模型研究

本文以元胞自动机模型理论为指导,以人员疏散时间最短为目标,构建中小学校疏散演练人员疏散模型。本文从开展地震应急疏散模型研究出发,为地震应急演练疏散训练软件提供核心算法。通过对空间基础构建元素及搭建方法的分析研究,设计完成疏散虚拟场景的建模方法。最后开展人员疏散算法构建方式的研究,并结合应急疏散演练人员行为规范的研究成果,完成疏散模型的总体设计,达到为应急演练疏散软件提供人员疏散演化模型以及为人员疏散过程合理性评判提供依据的目的。     

RESEARCH ON SELF-MEDIA INFORMATION MINING MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY RESPONSE

From the events of catastrophic natural disasters that have occurred in recent years, it can be found that social media platforms are increasingly becoming the most important and most convenient way for the general public to timely release and obtain information on disasters. The information obtained from such platforms contains a large amount of information in the form of texts, pictures, etc. that record the current situation of the disaster. And it also has characteristics of high efficiency and high spatial distribution to serve the rapid emergency after the earthquake. In this paper, we firstly make a statistical analysis of 32 689 pieces of historical disaster data acquired from 5 earthquakes with obvious characteristics, such as post-earthquake disaster events, user's expression habits and so on, and adopts cross-validation method. Then information classification system which includes seven first-level categories and more than 50 second-level categories is constructed. The information classification system and evaluation system of crisis degree for post-earthquake emergency response are constructed both using cross-validation method. The former is referred to the thought of existing classification basis and the experience knowledge of several emergency experts. Based on the five indicators of subject word, action word, degree word, time and position measurement, an evaluation system of critically with four levels of severity, moderate intensity, mildness and others was constructed. Considering the sparse features of self-media information and the large difference in the number of training sets, a naive Bayes model for information classification is trained based on the classification system and evaluation system. Its accuracy rate is 73.6%. At the same time, the classification method of feature fusion of machine learning model and semantic calculation model is used to evaluate the criticality of the disaster information. The accuracy rate of the evaluation model is 89.2%, higher than 85.2% of the semantic computing model and 77% of the naive Bayesian model. The evaluation model has combined the advantages of semantic computing method which can evaluate all index features with machine learning method which has high classification efficiency and accuracy. The thresholds for classification between mild and moderate intensity, moderate intensity and severe intensity were 15.2 and 27.39. The model realized in this paper can crawl, classify and evaluate the disaster information in the media in real time after an earthquake, and realizes mining of a small amount of critical and important information from the massive self-media information, thus, to assist in earthquake intensity rapid reporting and accurate rescue. Finally, taking the Jiuzhaigou earthquake on August 8, 2017 as an example, 17 432 pieces of data were crawled in real time within 48 hours after the earthquake. At the same time, based on ArcGIS, the mining information is visualized in time and space, and the availability of the data is evaluated from two perspectives of earthquake intensity quick reporting and accurate rescue after the earthquake. The disaster information of Jiuzhaigou County in the earthquake area is obviously more than that of the non-earthquake area in terms of quantity and emergency degree. The results show that the self-media information with high spatial distribution can effectively find the severer disaster grade area after the earthquake, shorten the time of earthquake intensity prediction, effectively classify and extract information, provide real-time information for precise rescue, and improve the efficiency of emergency response after the earthquake.     

面向室内应急疏散标识的VR眼动感知实验与布局评估

在室内应急疏散的背景下,理解人们如何感知应急疏散标识以及他们的感知如何影响疏散行为十分重要。虚拟地理环境基于虚拟现实（VR）技术构建的沉浸式多维信息空间,是一个符合人类感知认知规律的三维、动态、可交互空间。而基于虚拟地理环境的虚拟地理感知/认知实验,则可以提供一个可定量观测的可控虚拟实验环境,通过设计多种实验方案,定量地获取与空间感知、认知行为相关的客观实验数据。本文将沉浸式虚拟环境与眼动追踪技术相结合,设计了VR眼动感知实验,以室内通道为例,采用定量观测、数据统计、可视化分析等方法,对不同虚拟火灾逃生场景下的疏散时间、眼动注视点、个体移动轨迹数据进行了处理与分析,最后对室内应急疏散标识布局进行评估并提出合理建议。实验结果表明：① 女性参与者比男性更容易被逃生起始位置干扰,拥有较差的虚拟空间感;② 3种场景类型（无标识无烟雾、有标识无烟雾、有标识有烟雾）在疏散时间之间存在明显差异,应急标识、烟雾与逃生起始位置对疏散时间有显著性影响;③ 通道墙贴标识的感知率最高为0.929,在火灾逃生中最容易被识别;④ 安全出口标识感知率最低为0.333,眼动注视点大多在安全门而非安全出口标识上,因此需要提升安全出口标识的视觉吸引力;⑤ 室内通道微观环境的不同（例如通道长度）对应急标识注视时长的变化有较大影响;⑥ 安全出口附近的标识布局、设计有待改进。虚拟眼动感知实验为评估室内应急疏散标识的合理性和布局优化提供了一个有效的科学途径。     

Evaluating Suitability of Multiple Precipitation Products for the Lancang River Basin

Global reanalysis precipitation products could provide valuable meteorological information for flow forecasting in poorly gauged areas, helping to overcome a long-standing challenge in the field. But not all data sources are suitable for all regions or perform the same way in hydrological modeling, so it is essential to test the suitability of precipitation products before applying them. In this study, five widely used global high-resolution precipitation products—Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources(APHRODITE), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(NCEP-CFSR), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data(CHIRPS), China Gauge-based Daily Precipitation Analysis developed by China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project based on the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications(AgMERRA)—were evaluated using statistical methods and a hydrological approach for their suitability for the Lancang River Basin. The results indicated that APHRODITE, CMA, AgMERRA and CHIRPS were more accurate precipitation indicators than NCEP-CFSR in terms of the multiyear average and seasonal spatial distribution pattern, all of the CHIRPS, Ag MERRA and APHRODITE perform better than CMA and NCEP-CFSR at the small, medium and high precipitation intensities ranges in subbasin11 and sunbabsin46. All five products performed better in subbasin46(a low-altitude region) than in subbasin11(a high-altitude region) on the daily and monthly scales. In addition to NCEP-CFSR, the other four products all presented encouraging potential for streamflow simulation at daily(Yunjinghong) and monthly(Yunjinghong, Jiuzhou and Gajiu) scale. Hydrological simulations forced with APHRODITE were the best of the five for the Yunjinghong station in capturing daily and monthly measured streamflow. Except for NCEP-CFSR, all products were very good for hydrological simulations for the Gajiu and Jiuzhou stations.     

自主探索还是追随前沿?——中国高技术出口产业地理演化路径辨析

演化经济地理学认为,地方产业演化是路径依赖的,新的产业从本地现有关联产业中衍生出来。这个理论以地方具备同等优势的创造能力为前提,而创造能力本身对地方条件有着较高的要求。现实条件下,发展中地区开发先进工业,相比依赖本地现有产业基础自主创造的发展路径,紧密跟随并积极参与发达经济体开辟的先进制造业产品市场、主动吸收知识溢出、进行学习合作型创造或是一条更可行的道路。以2000—2015年中国561个海关报关国内地区代码划分的地区行政单元高技术出口产业地理演化为研究对象,验证了这一假设。结论显示：本地技术关联水平对地方高技术产业地理演化主要在近期产生影响,进口产品的知识溢出表现出中长期的促进作用,且地方技术水平的差异对地方利用知识溢出效果并无显著影响。这一结论证明发展中地区可以通过紧随前沿、学习合作打破本地路径锁定,实现路径跳跃。     

卫星遥感应急监测信息服务框架设计与应用——以四川木里森林火灾为例

构建及时、有效的卫星遥感应急监测信息服务框架,是开展自然灾害应急救援能力建设的重要内容。本文以数据统筹管理、多源数据处理、应灾信息分析及信息服务快速发布等关键技术为核心,依托高效互联机制和高速数据通道,构建了卫星遥感应急监测信息服务框架。通过在四川木里森林火灾应急遥感监测中的具体应用,实现了对灾前灾后数据的实时推送,以及灾区遥感解译图、三维地形、救援通达性及火灾变化等综合信息服务的及时发布,为四川省火灾一线救援工作提供了科学指导,为新时期国家应急能力建设提供了探索性技术途径。     

三种国际主流的北极卫星遥感冰速产品评估和分析

冰速是海冰的重要参数,但是受资料长度限制,对卫星遥感冰速产品进行系统比较和评估的研究还较少。利用2009年—2017年国际北极浮标计划（IABP）浮标冰速数据,较系统地评估了不同时间间隔的遥感反演冰速产品在北冰洋内区和弗拉姆海峡附近海区的表现。结果显示,对北冰洋内区而言,1 d间隔的美国国家雪冰数据中心（NSIDC）遥感冰速冬季误差整体大于夏季,冬季高估了波弗特海南部海冰向西的运动,低估了从喀拉海流向格陵兰岛北部的穿极流。对于5种2 d间隔冰速产品而言,产品精度不完全取决于源数据空间分辨率的高低,反演算法的改进和数据融合均能提高冰速的精度,均方根误差大小的顺序是OSISAF-Merged <OSISAF-AMSR <Ifremer-AMSR <OSISAF-SSM < OSISAF-ASCAT。对于4种使用相同反演算法的3 d间隔的冰速产品,产品的均方根误差取决于源数据分辨率,空间分辨率最高的Ifremer-AMSR冰速均方根误差最小。比较不同种类、不同时间间隔冰速的月平均均方根误差后可知,采用3 d间隔反演的冰速由于能够忽略更多短时间尺度海冰运动,其冰速均方根误差低于2 d间隔的冰速。在弗拉姆海峡,除Ifremer-AMSR外,其余冰速产品均具有较大的经向偏差和均方根误差。在冰速较快弗拉姆海峡,冰速产品均方根误差取决于源数据的分辨率。     

预警信息在电视渠道发布的播控系统研发与应用

利用Python、Php及多线程技术,对省突发事件预警信息发布系统现有的多渠道预警发布手段进行扩充完善,基于LAMP平台构建电视渠道预警信息插播系统.结果表明,系统可以纵向对接广西突发事件预警信息发布系统的数据及产品,横向连接中国天气频道播出系统,实现预警信息的抽取、清洗、解析、存储及转换,能实现预警信息在电视渠道的一...