海洋交通风险应急决策系统设计与实现

针对海洋交通风险事故的特点,采用基于分层推理思想设计了海洋交通风险应急决策处理模型。在模型中提出了以行为和状态为核心的知识规则描述方法。以该模型为基础给出了系统的设计与实现。通过将海洋交通风险事故分解为事务级、情况级和执行级三级处理,使系统能综合应用海洋交通事务各种信息进行有效决策,提高了海洋交通事务风险控制能力。系统的实现对于促进海洋交通风险控制的智能化水平,深化海事管理信息化平台建设具有现实意义。     

基于蜂窝通信的突发事件预警短信靶向发布方案

短信因其传播方式的主动性、用户群体的广覆盖等特点,在突发事件预警信息发布中具有举足轻重的作用。但目前气象部门所建短信平台在发布时效、覆盖面、定位发布等方面存在局限性,无法满足预警信息快速、精准发布的要求。本文结合中国移动大数据平台,提出了基于蜂窝通信原理的突发事件预警短信靶向发布技术方案,并以该方案在宁夏地区的实现为例,重点阐述了系统布局、数据对接、目标用户筛选、靶向发布策略等关键技术。该方案可有效提高突发事件预警信息发布的针对性和有效性。     

福建滨海木麻黄林下土壤性质的变化及其对林带更新的影响

研究了福建滨海沙地木麻黄防护林Ｍｏ的生物地球化学循环特征和林下土壤ｐＨ的变化，发现因Ｍｏ的生物地球化学循环不平衡引起的土壤微量元素Ｍｏ的耗竭和土壤的酸化是木麻黄林早衰和迹地更新生长不良的重要原因。提出了相应的对策建议。     

山东济宁组群结构大城市地下水资源评价和应急供水探讨

阐述了济宁组群结构大城市地下水资源量与开发利用现状,指出因开采地下水产生的环境地质问题,根据现有水源地的开采潜力分析,提出河里、双庙、石桥、大南铺-新驿和济宁城区水源地适宜作为应急供水水源,并采用不同方法计算了应急供水总量.当济宁市城区水源地无法供水时,在无新增供水水源的情况下,其它应急水源地的供水保证程度(按2010年规划需水量计算)为60%,可基本满足城市生活供水需求.     

生态屏障约束下的综合功能区划研究——以云南省昭通市为例(英文)

Ecological shelter zones reconstruction is an ecosystem restoration and conserva-tion project aimed to the ecological safety of nations,regions and basins. Reconstruction of ecological shelter zones of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River became one of the most important tasks of Western Development strategy. This article,taking Zhaotong as an exam-ple,studies the functional regionalization of ecological shelter zones. The study supplies a case for functional regionalization of small and medium regions whose main tasks are envi-ronment reservation. With the guidance of theories of functional regionalization,and based on the analysis of Zhaotong's natural,ecological and socioeconomic factors,the paper suggests five principles for factors selection. These principles include: (1) reversing order evaluation; (2) selecting main factors; (3) keeping the integrality of administrative regions of towns; and (4) making the products acceptable by local government. To analyze spatial status of selected factors,LUCC data in 2002,1:50,000 relief maps and town-unit socioeconomic statistical data in 2004 are used. RS and GIS tools are also applied to melt traditional and modern geo-graphical methods. This would be useful to functional regionalization research in mountain-ous areas. As a conclusion,the leading functional regions of ecological conservation or economic development are suggested,respectively. Zhaotong city is divided into two-level functional regions. The first-level includes three leading functional regions and they will lead developing direction of sub-regions. The second-level includes eight sub-regions,which are policy implemented regions,and will supply guidance to Zhaotong's ecological shelter zones reconstruction.     

Indian Ocean tsunamis: environmental and socio-economic impacts in Langkawi, Malaysia

We report the results of a study of the physical characteristics and socio-economic impacts of the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the tourist island of Langkawi, Malaysia. In comparison with many other locations struck by the tsunami, the immediate physical and socio-economic impacts in Langkawi were relatively minor. A detailed survey of the watermark and ground elevations was undertaken in the worst affected area between Sungei Kuala Teriang and Sungei Kuala Melaka. Here, the tsunami reached a maximum elevation of 4.29 m as it crossed the coast, with a maximum flow depth of 2.0 m and a very consistent run-up elevation relative to mean sea level of 300 ± 10 cm. The tsunami inundated inshore areas for 300 m and penetrated inland along creeks for 500–1000 m. Structural damage to buildings was confined to within 50–150 m of the shoreline where about 10% of the houses were completely destroyed and 60–70% suffered significant structural damage. Damage was particularly severe in areas where there was no engineered coastal protection, but while coastal revetments did provide enhanced protection for houses at the waterfront, the coastline in the study area appeared to be more heavily impacted than elsewhere in Langkawi because wave energy was focused on the area by offshore breakwaters built to protect the Langkawi port and airport. Emergency response after the tsunami was rapid and efficient but would have been improved if the local police station had not been rendered inoperative by the first wave, and if a mechanism had been in place to ensure that informal advance warnings transmitted between Phuket (Thailand), Langkawi and Penang (Malaysia) by tourist operators could have been more widely disseminated.     

Identification and prioritization of data for collection in post-earthquake surveys

During an earthquake, buildings which are vulnerable to seismic loads will be damaged, resulting in property loss and the potential for casualties. To reduce loss of life and injury, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. To this end, a methodology and a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. The forms were developed in four steps: (1) identifying the variables which affect the outcome of an occupant in a damaged building; (2) classifying the variables into three levels of priority for data collection; (3) designing the forms; and (4) applying the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly in a consistent format. This paper describes the first two steps of the development process; a companion paper outlines the latter components.     

基于GIS的天津市应急避难场所选址评价

应急避难场所在城市应急管理体系中占有重要地位，对已建成的应急避难场所选址进行评价，可为应急避难场所个体改进、布局优化和新建选址提供依据。本文在文献研究与天津市城市特点分析的基础上，从有效性、安全性、可达性3个维度构建包含8个评价因子的应急避难场所选址适宜性评价指标体系，应用层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重。应用GIS空间分析技术建立应急避难场所空间点位分析模型和覆盖范围模型，对天津市27个应急避难场所进行适宜性评价，并对中心城区14个应急避难场所进行满足性评价。结果表明，天津市应急避难场所具有良好的基础，但总体适宜性水平有待进一步提高，尤其是安全性亟需加强；天津市中心城区人口密集，但应急避难场所数量少，服务区域有限，存在较大范围的覆盖盲区，其中和平区人均有效避难面积仅0.2m2，远小于人体最低占用面积0.6m2，达不到人均有效避难要求。     

地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。