预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Holocene record of productivity in the NW Iberian continental shelf

A multiproxy approach (textural characteristics, heavy metal concentrations and benthic foraminifera data) was adopted to study the OMEX core KSGX 40, collected at the Galicia Mud Deposit (NW Iberian outer continental shelf) and recording the last ca. 4.8 ka cal BP. Geochemical profiles of Fe, Mn, Zn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Al and Ca show significant temporal variations. Benthic foraminifera productivity proxy suggests that the recorded muddy events were contemporaneous of a higher C_org flux to the marine benthic environment. The higher flux of organic matter, following a long-term intensification of the upwelling and coinciding with a finer sedimentation, led to depressed levels of oxygen beneath the water-sediments interface and to early diagenetic processes of several redox-sensitive elements.     

A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping

In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city.     

Groundwater study using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) in the central highlands of Eritrea

Remote sensing, evaluation of digital elevation models (DEM), geographic information systems (GIS) and fieldwork techniques were combined to study the groundwater conditions in Eritrea. Remote sensing data were interpreted to produce lithological and lineament maps. DEM was used for lineament and geomorphologic mapping. Field studies permitted the study of structures and correlated them with lineament interpretations. Hydrogeological setting of springs and wells were investigated in the field, from well logs and pumping test data. All thematic layers were integrated and analysed in a GIS. Results show that groundwater occurrence is controlled by lithology, structures and landforms. Highest yields occur in basaltic rocks and are due to primary and secondary porosities. High yielding wells and springs are often related to large lineaments, lineament intersections and corresponding structural features. In metamorphic and igneous intrusive rocks with rugged landforms, groundwater occurs mainly in drainage channels with valley fill deposits. Zones of very good groundwater potential are characteristic for basaltic layers overlying lateritized crystalline rocks, flat topography with dense lineaments and structurally controlled drainage channels with valley fill deposits. The overall results demonstrate that the use of remote sensing and GIS provide potentially powerful tools to study groundwater resources and design a suitable exploration plan.The online version of the original article can be found at     

Break out resistance of inclined anchors in sand

Inclined anchors are widely used in a variety of civil engineering problems to resist oblique loads, most relevant being in transmission towers and in rocks and dams for structural strengthening. In the present study, the breakout resistance of the inclined anchors in sand has been worked out using limit equilibrium approach. The breakout resistance has been calculated for different soil friction angles with varying relative depth ratio and anchor inclination. The break out factor increases continuously with the inclination of the anchor. A comparison of predicted values of break out resistance of anchors by the proposed analysis with the experimental values as reported by the other researchers showed reasonably good agreement.     

GPS高程拟合的方式及可靠性分析

在范围不大的区域中，高程异常具有一定的几何相关性，GPS高程拟合就是利用这一原理，求解正常高。在解析法求解过程中，首先用最小二乘法确定拟合数学模型的系数，在此基础上计算出待测点的高程异常值。通过实例验证：GPS高程拟合的精度主要取决于GPS大地高的精度、重合点正常高的精度、重合点的分布及拟模型的选择。一般在重合点数量充足且分布均匀的情况下，GPS高程拟合的精度可达到四等水准网的精度要求。     

三种高程传递方法的精度分析

通过试验对悬挂钢尺、GPS测高和全站仪垂直测高三种高程传递方法进行了理论分析与精度比较,并讨论了各种方法在实际应用中的优点与局限性。     

北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的方法

本文首先阐述了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的意义,介绍了北京54坐标转换至WGS-84坐标的实现过程及其方法.最后通过计算江苏省北京54坐标数据和C级GPS网数据对两种坐标转换方法进行了比较分析,并得出了有益的结论.     

青藏高原东缘龙门山晚新生代剥蚀厚度与弹性挠曲模拟

龙门山是青藏高原东缘边界山脉,具有青藏高原地貌、龙门山高山地貌和山前冲积平原三个一级地貌单元。利用数字高程模式图像和裂变径迹年代测定方法研究和计算龙门山晚新生代剥蚀厚度与剥蚀速率,结果表明:3.6 Ma以来龙门山的剥蚀厚度介于1.91-2.16 km之间,剥蚀速率介于0.53-0.60 mm/a之间。在此基础上,开展了该地区岩石圈的弹性挠曲模拟,结果表明龙门山的隆升机制具有以构造缩短隆升和剥蚀卸载隆升相叠合的特点。3.6 Ma之前,龙门山的隆升与逆冲推覆构造负载有关,以构造缩短驱动的构造隆升为特色;3.6 Ma之后,龙门山的隆升与剥蚀卸载驱动的抬升有关,并以剥蚀卸载隆升为特色,进而提出了龙门山晚新生代以来的隆升机制以剥蚀成山作用为主的认识。     

湖北省巴东县黄土坡滑坡深部变形防治方案探讨

文章根据几年来从事黄土坡滑坡区的勘查、可研及现场工程管理的认识，从滑坡分布特征、物质构成、稳定研究、变形特征等方面对滑坡进行研究。针对该滑坡厚度巨大，滑体强度高，近期深部变形较明显的实情，作者以库仑定律为基础，提出采用岩土加固治理滑坡区深部滑移的初步治理方案。