MISCELLANY

The geomorphic sciences will continue to be dynamic in the coming decade. Among other developments, there is a trend toward increased dependence on field reserch, more realistic expectations from reserch tools, a resurgence of interest in man-land relations with a renewed dependence on the historical approach, a reinvestigation of morphogenetic regions, study of planetary surfaces other than earth's, and involvement with applied problems, as well as cooperation and collaboration with scientists in related fields. The greatest need is the development of connections between academic and nonacademic geographers at all levels.     

中国能源消费增长特征及影响因素分析

以煤炭消费为主、总量增长迅速、结构演进缓慢、使用效率低下使得中国目前能源消费调控问题面临诸多困难。本文使用多元回归模型和通径分析法确定了中国能源消费增长的主要因子及各因子的作用机理,结果发现：影响中国能源消费的主要因素按照影响程度依次为经济增长、城市化水平、对外贸易、人口总量、能源消费结构及能源利用效率,其中经济增长、人口规模扩大是直接推动中国能源消费增长的原因,而城市化水平和对外贸易规模则通过间接作用推动能源消费增长,能源消费结构的改善和能源利用效率的提高表面上看起来会引发能源消费增加,但是其间接影响都是负的,从而使得这两个因素整体上表现为减缓了能源消费增长。     

论山地灾害链

山地灾害链是具有灾变条件的山地环境,在致灾因素的作用下,一种山地灾害发生后,引起其他种类山地灾害也相继或滞后发生的灾变现象,通常由泥石流、山洪、滑坡、崩塌、冰崩、雪崩、堰塞湖和水土流失等灾种及其相关灾变现象构成,种类繁多,结构复杂,危害严重.根据山地灾害链的致灾因素不同将其划分成地球内营力作用、外营力作用和人为作用致灾3种类型,并进一步将其划分成8个亚类和128种灾害链形式.分析了山地灾害链的成因,认为山地灾害链是山地灾害的物质、能量和信息在特定条件下相互作用、相互渗透、相互传递和相互转化的结果.通过对山地害链的致灾因素、活动地域与结构特征分析和综合分析显示:山地灾害链的防治难度虽然很大,但除分布在高山和极高山区域、由冰雪崩塌和消融水引发的山地灾害链仅可预防,尚难治理外,其他山地灾害链都是可防、可治的.     

A comparative analysis of DEM‐based models to estimate the solar radiation in mountainous terrain

Daily solar radiation estimates of four up‐to‐date solar radiation models (Solar Analyst, r.sun, SRAD and Solei‐32), based on a digital elevation model (DEM), have been evaluated and compared in a Mediterranean environment characterized by a complex topography. The models' estimates were evaluated against 40 days of radiometric data collected in 14 stations. Analyzed sky conditions ranged from completely overcast conditions to clear skies. Additionally, the role of the spatial resolution of the DEM has been evaluated through the use of two different resolutions: 20 and 100 m. Results showed that, under clear‐sky conditions, the daily solar radiation variability in the study area may be reasonably estimated with mean bias errors under 10% and root mean square error values of around 15%. On the other hand, results proved that the reliability of the estimates substantially decreases under overcast conditions for some of the solar radiation models. Regarding the role of the DEM spatial resolution, results suggested that the reliability of the estimates for complex topography areas under clear‐sky conditions improves using a higher spatial resolution.     

An adaptive approach to selecting a flow‐partition exponent for a multiple‐flow‐direction algorithm

Most multiple‐flow‐direction algorithms (MFDs) use a flow‐partition coefficient (exponent) to determine the fractions draining to all downslope neighbours. The commonly used MFD often employs a fixed exponent over an entire watershed. The fixed coefficient strategy cannot effectively model the impact of local terrain conditions on the dispersion of local flow. This paper addresses this problem based on the idea that dispersion of local flow varies over space due to the spatial variation of local terrain conditions. Thus, the flow‐partition exponent of an MFD should also vary over space. We present an adaptive approach for determining the flow‐partition exponent based on local topographic attribute which controls local flow partitioning. In our approach, the influence of local terrain on flow partition is modelled by a flow‐partition function which is based on local maximum downslope gradient (we refer to this approach as MFD based on maximum downslope gradient, MFD‐md for short). With this new approach, a steep terrain which induces a convergent flow condition can be modelled using a large value for the flow‐partition exponent. Similarly, a gentle terrain can be modelled using a small value for the flow‐partition exponent. MFD‐md is quantitatively evaluated using four types of mathematical surfaces and their theoretical ‘true’ value of Specific Catchment Area (SCA). The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) shows that the error of SCA computed by MFD‐md is lower than that of SCA computed by the widely used SFD and MFD algorithms. Application of the new approach using a real DEM of a watershed in Northeast China shows that the flow accumulation computed by MFD‐md is better adapted to terrain conditions based on visual judgement.     

The smoothness of HASM

To smooth noises inherent in uniformly sampled dataset, the smoothness of high accuracy surface modeling (HASM) was explored, and a smoothing method of HASM (HASM-SM) was developed based on a penalized least squares method. The optimal smoothing parameter of HASM-SM was automatically obtained by means of the generalized cross-validation (GCV) method. For an efficient smoothing computation, discrete cosine transform was employed to solve the system of HASM-SM and to estimate the minimum GCV score, simultaneously. Two examples including a numerical test and a real-world example were employed to compare the smoothing ability of HASM-SM with that of GCV thin plate smoothing spline (TPS) and kriging. The numerical test indicated that the minimum GCV HASM-SM is averagely more accurate than TPS and kriging for noisy surface smoothing. The real-world example of smoothing a lidar-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) showed that HASM-SM has an obvious smoothing effect, which is on a par with TPS. In conclusion, HASM-SM provides an efficient tool for filtering noises in grid-based surfaces like remote sensing–derived images and DEMs.     

Measuring the significance of a divide to local drainage patterns

This article presents a framework for estimating a new topographic attribute derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) called maximum branch length (B _max). Branch length is defined as the distance travelled along a flow path initiated at one grid cell to the confluence with the flow path passing through a second cell. B _max is the longest branch length measured for a grid cell and its eight neighbours. The index provides a physically meaningful method for assessing the relative significance of drainage divides to the dispersion of materials and energy across a landscape, that is, it is a measure of ‘divide size’. B _max is particularly useful for studying divide network structure, for mapping drainage divides, and in landform classification applications. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of estimates of B _max to the algorithm used to estimate flow lengths and the prevalence of edge effects resulting from inadequate DEM extent. The findings suggest that the index is insensitive to the specific flow algorithm used but that edge effects can result in significant underestimation along major divides. Edge contamination can, however, be avoided by using an appropriately extensive DEM.     

An alternative approach to transverse and profile terrain curvature

Terrain curvature is one of the most important parameters of land surface topography. Well-established methods used in its measurement compute an index of plan or profile curvature for every single cell of a digital elevation model (DEM). The interpretation of these outputs may be delicate, especially when selected locations have to be analyzed. Furthermore, they involve a high level of simplification, contrasting with the complex and multiscalar nature of the surface curvature itself. In this paper, we present a new method to assess vertical transverse and profile curvature combining real-scale visualization and the possibility to measure these two terrain derivatives over a large range of scales. To this purpose, we implemented a GIS tool that extracts longitudinal and transverse elevation profiles from a high-resolution DEM. The performance of our approach was compared with some of the most commonly used methods (ArcMap, Redlands, CA, USA; ArcSIE, Landserf) by analyzing the terrain curvature around charcoal production sites in southern Switzerland. The different methods produced comparable results. While conventional methods quickly summarize terrain curvature in the form of a matrix of values, they involve a loss of information. The advantage of the new method lies in the possibility to measure and visualize the shape and size of the curvature, and to obtain a realistic representation of the average curvature for different subsets of spatial points. Moreover, the new method makes it possible to control the conditions in which the index of curvature is calculated.     

江苏县域经济要素关系及演化过程的分位数回归

针对经典回归模型的“两难问题”,引入非参数的分位数回归构建了要素关系模型,并以江苏县域经济为案例分析.结果表明:1)相比OLS回归,分位数回归对县域经济总体模拟效果和刻画演化特征能力更优;2)根据变量关系结构,将县域经济发展驱动机制划分为产业结构占优型、一般均衡驱动型和高效均衡驱动型;3)苏锡常各县市受因子波动影响而使得驱动机制发生改变导致演化过程的分位点跃迁,表现出发展路径选择具有多样化的特点.     

Study of the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete frame structure

Based on six-degree-of-freedom three-dimensional shaking table tests, the seismic response of a recycled aggregate concrete （RAC） frame was obtained. The analysis results indicate that the maximum story shear force and overturning moment reduce proportionally along the height of the model under the same earthquake wave. The story shear force, base shear coefficient and overturning moment of the structure increase progressively as the acceleration amplitude increases. The base shear coefficient is primarily controlled by the peak ground acceleration （PGA）. The relationships between the PGA and the shear coefficient as well as between the PGA and the dynamic amplification factor are obtained by mathematical fitting. The dynamic amplification factor decreases rapidly at the elastic-plastic stage, but decreases slowly with the development of the elastic-plasticity stage. The results show that the RAC frame structure has reasonable deformability when compared with natural aggregate concrete frame structures. The maximum inter-story drift ratios of the RAC frame model under frequent and rare intensity 8 test phases are 1/266 and 1/29, respectively, which are larger than the allowable value of 1/500 and 1/50 according to Chinese seismic design requirements. Nevertheless, the RAC frame structure does not collapse under base excitations with PGAs from 0.066 g up to 1.170 g.