当前国外人工增雨防雹作业的效果评估

统计学推荐随机化播云试验作为人工增雨防雹作业的最佳效果检验方法,但在业务性作业中却难于实施。作者综述国外人工影响天气主要外场试验计划实施中的缺陷和经验教训,以及近年来对两个最受推崇的随机化试验的争论,并通过实例说明人工影响天气的效果评估可基于无分布推断法,以简化试验设计并提高检出功效。     

一次西风槽系统的云微物理结构分析

对１９９１年４月１６日影响河北地区中南部的一次西槽天气过程形成的降水性层状云微物理结构进行了分析。结果表明，降水主要发生在层状云的中上层，存在可供催化的过冷层和过冷水，但云体下层的供水云较薄，云底偏高，不利于降水的发展；实施人工增雨作业后，云层微结构出现相应变化（云滴和雨滴含水量增加，滴谱拓宽等）作业区与影响区雨量普遍增加，并与催化时间相吻合，这些可能与人工影响有关。     

一种新型软钢阻尼器力学性能和减震效果的研究

本文研究了一种新型软钢阻尼器。首先分析了这种阻尼器的力学性能和减震机理，依据试验结果给出了它的恢复力模型，并推导得出了特征参数的表达式和疲劳验算式；研究了阻尼器参数对减震效果的影响，给出了最佳的参数取值范围；算例分析表明该种阻尼器具有很好的减震效果。     

1/万土壤测量数据拼接实践及其地质意义

从原始数据的处理入手,对不同年度、不同分析单位的分析数据用单一工作区单元素的相应衬值进行拼接后统一求取异常圈定参数。并结合区内的地质单元体、矿体分布、成矿预测等因素对所圈定的异常作了有效性分析。从而使更大范围内综合评价岩石次生晕的分布特征,使其更好地指导地质找矿工作成为可能。     

重构地质勘查机制迎接矿产资源短缺的挑战

中国地质勘查在过去的50年中,经历了30多年辉煌和近20年的萎缩停顿,虽为我国经济发展做出了重大贡献,但随着社会主义市场经济的逐步建立和严峻的资源短缺形势,地质勘查业的诸多不适应性暴露无遗,其产业效能因此而受到较大影响.针对这一现状,必须准确估量地质勘查业的地位,对我国的地质勘查进行全新的设计和重构.     

国际河流流域组织研究述评与展望

作为国际河流长期合作开发的重要保障,国际河流流域组织这一联合制度安排备受关注,但参差不齐的绩效表现致使其可行性与有效性引发学者质疑。我国拥有众多国际河流,与之相关的合作开发是中国周边外交的重要抓手,但针对上述问题的研究未能得到国内学者的足够重视。在此背景下,文章首先回顾、梳理了国际河流流域组织的定义与类型,然后重点研判其制度设计特征和有效性,并指明已有研究所面临的方法困境,最后为解开“流域组织如何促进国际河流有效合作”这一难题提出以下研究建议：1）整合国际河流流域组织有效性评价指标并进行全球范围的评价;2）探明国际河流流域组织制度类型所适用的范围与条件;3）厘清不同国际河流流域组织制度设计特征与治理有效性的关系;4）基于过程视角探求国际河流流域组织有效性达成路径;5）采用超越定性与定量研究的新方法;6）立足地缘文明激发国际河流流域组织成员国的文化认同。     

水位变化对多空沟屏障远场隔振效果的影响研究

受季节性降雨的影响,雨季和旱季存在明显的水位波动。为分析地下水位升降对多空沟隔振效果的影响,建立了上覆单相弹性层饱和地基中空沟有限元分析模型。模型中考虑了沟中水的作用,算例分析了等沟深和不等沟深多沟屏障、沟壁倾斜多沟屏障和连续起伏地形屏障在不同水位下的远场隔振效果。计算结果与相应单相弹性地基进行对比,结果表明：土体渗透性低时,多数水位下不利于多沟屏障隔振;沟深为0.3LR（LR为R波波长）的三沟屏障通常可获得较理想的隔振效果（75%隔振率）,但屏障在隔振效果最差的共振水位(0.6LR)下,空沟须贯穿上覆干土层才可获得75%隔振率;递减沟深屏障可有效降低上覆土层共振的不利影响;沟深较浅时,沟壁倾角越大,多沟的隔振效果越好,但对较深多沟的影响小;连续起伏的地形景观可作为一种有效的绿色隔振屏障。     

Velocity adjustable TMD and numerical simulation of seismic performance

A new type of velocity adjustable tuned mass damper (TMD) consisting of impulse generators and clutches is presented. The force impulse is generated by a joining operation of electromagnets and springs and MR dampers are used as clutches. Rules for velocity adjustment are established according to the working mechanism of TMD. The analysis program is developed on a VB platform. Seismic response of SDOF structures with both passive TMD and velocity adjustable TMD are analyzed. The results show that (1) the control effectiveness of passive TMDs is usually unstable; (2) the control effectiveness of the proposed semi-active TMDs is much better than passive TMDs under typical seismic ground motions; and (3) unlike the passive TMD system, the proposed velocity adjustable TMDs exhibit good control effectiveness even when the primary structure performance becomes inelastic during severe earthquakes.     

Geomorphic effectiveness of extraordinary floods on three large rivers of the Indian Peninsula

The efficacy of extreme events is directly linked to the flood power and the total energy expended. The geomorphic effectiveness of floods is evaluated in terms of the distribution of stream power per unit boundary area (ω) over time, for three very large floods of the 20th Century in the Indian Peninsula. These floods stand out as outliers when compared with the peak floods per unit drainage area recorded elsewhere in the world. We used flood hydrographs and at-a-station hydraulic geometry equations, computed for the same gauging site or a nearby site, to construct approximately stream-power curves and to estimate the total energy expended by each flood. Critical unit stream power values necessary to entrain cobbles and boulders were estimated on the basis of empirical relationships for coarse sediment transport developed by Williams [Williams, G.P., 1983. Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments. I. Cobble and boulder deposits. Geografiska Annaler 65A, 227–243.] in order to determine the geomorphological effectiveness of the floods. The estimates indicate that the minimum power per unit area values for all three floods were sufficiently high, and stream energy was above the threshold of boulder movement (90 W m^− 2) for several tens of hours. The peak unit stream power values and the total energy expended during each flood were in the range of 290–325 W m^− 2 and 65–160 × 10⁶ J respectively. The average and peak flood powers were found to be higher or comparable to those estimated for extreme palaeo or modern floods on low-gradient, alluvial rivers.     

能源补贴政策及其改革——为减排提供经济激励

The subsidy, as a measure, is widely applied by governments at all levels around the world as a way of policy interventions. However, there are two completely opposite opinions of subsidies on energy and environmental protection. The only reason for subsidy in existence is the internalization of external benefit. The paper firstly examines the energy subsidy policies relevant to climate change mitigation in China and their effectiveness, then points out the deficiency existing in energy conservation policies and renewable energy development policies, and finally suggests that China should exert positive role of subsidy policies and reduce negative effects in promoting climate change mitigation.