阿姆河右岸中下侏罗统构造变形及构造圈闭特征

阿姆河右岸区块为CNPC在阿姆河盆地的重要合作区块,目前对该区中下侏罗统构造面貌认识不甚清楚,严重制约着该区深部的油气勘探进展。充分利用已有的地质、钻探资料及新近采集的三维地震资料,通过对研究区中下侏罗统层序界面的全区追踪对比,探讨了阿姆河右岸区块中部三维地震区的中下侏罗统构造变形特征,在此基础上进一步分析了中下侏罗统构造圈闭类型及其成藏有效性。研究表明,研究区中下侏罗统构造是在晚二叠世-三叠纪断陷阶段形成的查尔朱断阶背景上,经过侏罗纪-古近纪的坳陷阶段和新近纪以来的来自南东方向的强烈挤压改造形成的综合产物。整体来看中下侏罗统主要发育有NW-SE向、近EW向、NEE-SWW向和NE-SW向4组断裂,不同走向断裂其形成时代、运动学特征、演化过程及在空间上的分布等方面都存在明显差异。受不同断裂活动性质的影响,研究区发育有NW-SE向、NE-SW向及NNE-SWW向3组不同走向的褶皱构造。受中下侏罗统构造变形过程的控制,研究区构造圈闭主要为背斜型圈闭,它们多被断裂切割改造,形成断层-背斜复合型圈闭。根据圈闭发育的控制因素可以分为在基底古隆起基础上发育起来的背斜型圈闭（A型）和与基底古隆起无关的新近纪形成的挤压背斜型圈闭（B型）。不同类型圈闭的成藏有效性存在明显差异。A型圈闭由于是在基底古隆起基础上发育起来的,中下侏罗统储层发育相对较好;B型圈闭主要位于研究区东部,早中侏罗世该区位于水体较深部位,储层发育差。根据A型圈闭在后期构造运动中被改造的强弱,可进一步分为A-1型和A-2型圈闭。A-1型圈闭后期被改造程度弱,早期古隆起边缘断裂的后期活动未将早期（新近纪以前）可能已经形成的中下侏罗统原生油气藏完全破坏掉,从而一部分原生油气藏被保存下来;而A-2型圈闭后期被改造程度强,早期断裂的后期活动或新生断裂将早期可能形成的中下侏罗统原生油气藏严重破坏。3类构造圈闭中下侏罗统成藏有效性以A-1型圈闭最好,A-2型圈闭次之,B型圈闭最差。     

北京市人工增雨效果评估方法分析

用序列试验法、回归分析法、双比分析法和区域回归数值模拟试验方案4种效果评估方法对北京地区2001~2004年6~9月的37次火箭、高炮催化作业进行效果评估,并比较各种方法的优缺点。结果表明:①这4种方案统计结果均得到显著的增雨效果,平均增雨分别为:用序列试验的方法6.99%,用回归分析法30.68%,双比分析法20.11%,区域回归数值模拟试验方案13.37%。②误差分析表明,区域回归数值模拟试验方案产生的绝对误差仅为2.1%~2.2%,是一种较科学的评价方法。     

The impact of private investor’s transaction costs on the cost effectiveness of project-based Kyoto mechanisms

From a private investor’s point of view transaction costs of project-based Kyoto mechanisms relate mainly to project management and interaction with government representatives. However, when analysing the cost effectiveness of project-based Kyoto mechanisms these transaction costs are often underestimated or completely ignored¹ due to limited data availability. This paper presents an analysis of transaction costs of project-based Kyoto mechanisms by applying cost estimates from comparable activities, for example, activities implemented jointly (AIJ). The findings show that transaction costs of AIJ projects range between 7% and more than 100% of production costs with 80% of projects lying between 14 and 89%. Furthermore the data clearly illustrate that “bigger” projects have lower specific project costs indicating the existence of economies of scale. Due to the fact that high transaction costs will push many promising projects out of the market, efforts should be undertaken to reduce transaction costs by improving procedures and business environments, for example, by standardisation.     

热红外遥感找油的时效性研究

油气藏烃类微渗漏所造成的热异常信息，是油气遥感勘探中最直接和最具普遍意义的标志，对该标志的识别和时效性的研究，具有广泛的实践意义，并可以发挥出巨大的经济效益。在中国内蒙古二连盆地已知油田上方，选择了勘探开发前期二个时相和勘探开发后期一个时相的遥感数据与该区油气化探数据进行定性和定量的复合分析，指出了热红外遥感找油的最佳时机。     

The three screen doors: can marine "protected" areas be effective?

The great majority of marine protected areas (MPAs) fail to meet their management objectives. So MPAs can be effective conservation tools, we recommend two paradigm shifts, the first related to how they are located and the second related to how they are managed. MPAs are unlikely to be effective if they are located in areas that are subject to numerous, and often uncontrollable, external stressors from atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic sources, all of which can degrade the environment and compromise protection. MPA effectiveness is also limited by low institutional and community capacity for management and inappropriate size with respect to ecological needs. In particular, the check list approach to management does not ensure that key threats are dealt with, or that management expenditures provide a quantifiable return. We recommend a business planning approach to MPA management, in which managers focus on the viability of the management system, i.e., the ability of the MPA to provide ecological goods and services to its target users over the long term.     

Quantitative evaluation of the time-line reduction performance in high definition marine magnetic surveys

The effectiveness of the time reduction procedure is the critical problem for the informative contents evaluation in the high definition (HD) geomagnetic marine surveys. The use of magnetogradiometers is a good solution for the time-reduction in the regional offshore studies but often, for technical reasons, this is not a practicable method in the very detailed coastal, canal or harbour surveys where the use of coastal base stations may be preferable. On the other hand the uncertainty of the full transferability of the coastal magnetograms to large areas of marine surveys can disrupt the time-reduced data sets by a geomagnetic residual time component. The phenomenon is related to the distance from the coastal observatory and to the homogeneity of the local magnetic characteristics of the crust. The maximum applicability distance of the time-line correction (TL) is qualitatively evaluated and is shown to be inconsistent with geomagnetic marine surveys in high definition. In this work we show a quantitative method to evaluate the stability of the coastal observatory magnetograms over the nearby marine area, together with the numerical degree of precision of the correction. The method is based on a double survey of the same profile (timer track: TT) at two different times. The surveys produce two different row data sets where the difference is related only to the geomagnetic time variations. Using the coastal observatory magnetograms we time-reduce the two data sets: if the coastal observatory magnetograms are fully coherent in the whole survey area the difference between the two reduced data sets will be zero. However, if the time variations measured in the observatory are inadequate in amplitude or phase to model the corresponding time variations in the surveyed profile (TT), the discrepancy between the time reduced data sets will not be zero. Similar TTs starting with various course from the base station permit the surveyed area to be split into sectors with variable degree of time coherence and to assign a degree of precision to the time-reduced survey.     

Interfacial properties of oil spill dispersants and their effects on dispersion effectiveness

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Measuring what matters – Identifying indicators of success for Brazilian marine protected areas

The large increase in number and extent of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) over the last few decades has been an important step towards the conservation of marine environments. However, it is not clear whether these important conservation tools are effectively managed, especially in the developing world where resources are limited and there are frequent conflicts with traditional resource users. An innovative approach was used to identify the most important governance, socioeconomic and biophysical variables that are associated with the management effectiveness of Brazilian MPAs. Management effectiveness data was extracted from Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management (RAPPAM), applied by World Wildlife Fund-Brazil in 2005 and 2010. This comprehensive dataset was summarized in a single management effectiveness metric and related to a set of 15 explanatory variables using generalized linear models (GLMs). An innovative multi-model averaging approach was employed to identify the most important variables relating to management effectiveness. As a result, five main indicators showed high influence on management effectiveness: 1) higher levels of monitoring/research; 2) higher investment; 3) greater human resources; 4) greater social participation, and; 5) lower levels of conflicts between users and managers. managerial effectiveness of Brazilian MPAs could be significantly improved by adopting an indicator based approach to management prioritization. Specifically, MPA managers should dedicate special attention to the highlighted factors when choosing how to allocate available resources in order to boost the overall effectiveness of their protected area.