基于体系结构核心数据模型的测绘导航体系结构权衡分析

为解决测绘导航体系中系统使用需求、能力指标和系统建设方案的优化问题,提出了基于测绘导航体系结构核心数据模型的权衡分析方法.在美国国防部体系结构框架(DoDAF1.5)的核心数据模型基础上,构建测绘导航体系结构核心数据模型;将权衡分析方法与体系结构产品设计相结合,围绕技术指标、集成复杂度和费用等问题,构建系统建设评估标准;对指标进行权重分配,定义指标功能曲线,并给出了示例分析.     

晋城市土地利用总体规划实施效益评价研究

探索简便、精确的土地利用总体规划实施效益评价方法是土地利用总体规划研究的重要内容.本文在深入分析国内已有评价方法优劣的基础上,将层次分析法与模糊综合评价法结合建立了基于AHP的模糊综合评价模型(AHP-FUZZY),并应用于山西省晋城市.通过评价得出晋城市上轮土地利用总体规划实施效益较好,较大程度上实现了规划的预期效益...     

广西富贺钟钨锡多金属矿区植物地球化学异常特征及其找矿有效性

广西富贺钟地区是中国重要的钨锡多金属成矿区之一。该区气候温热,雨量充沛,红土发育,植被茂盛。为探讨植物地球化学找矿的有效性,笔者针对该区内不同矿床类型进行了植物地球化学找矿试验研究。研究发现:不同矿床类型矿体上部均发育有良好的植物地球化学综合异常,异常清晰,异常宽度大于矿体宽度,并具有良好的植物地球化学元素组合分带,在该区利用植物地球化学异常进行找矿有效可信。根据植物地球化学异常特征及特征元素可以区分不同的矿床类型,预测隐伏矿体的位置及推测隐伏矿体的埋藏深度。     

Interaction dynamics of avian frugivores and plants in a Chilean Mediterranean shrubland

Studies of plant-frugivore interactions are important for identifying the roles that biotic seed vectors play in seed dispersal, and ultimately plant recruitment. In a subandean shrubland of central Chile, 50% of total flora (14 species) has fleshy fruits dispersed by birds. We examined two aspects of frugivore-plant interaction in this system: the structure of the seed-dispersal network, to predict the effect of hypothetical frugivore species loss for seed dispersal and disperser effectiveness, by analyzing whether birds contribute equally to the removal of seeds from different shrub species. We show that the seed-dispersal network is highly and significantly nested, resulting in a core of interactions among generalist vertebrates and plant species. A reduction in the populations of the three main avian generalists, Turdus falcklandii, Mimus thenca and Elaenia albiceps, would disrupt seed dispersal and natural regeneration for most woody species. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the network was robust to the random loss of frugivorous species but highly sensitive to the loss of generalist species first. Mist-net sampling of birds corroborated that most fruit removal was effected by E. albiceps and T. falcklandii, highlighting the importance of frugivore species identity on seed dispersal for the maintenance of Mediterranean shrublands.     

云南地区GNSS连续观测短临异常指标提取及效能评价

通过对云南地区43个GNSS连续站2011-01~2018-12站点位移时间序列原始数据进行深加工处理,在计算应变参数格网时间序列的基础上,分别提取适合云南地区M≥5.0地震短临预测的面应变及最大剪应变短临异常指标;并基于其间发生的27个M≥5.0地震,采用R值评分法对异常指标进行预测效能评价。结果表明：1）两种异常指标对云南地区M≥5.0地震的发震时间具有较好的指示意义;2）当预测窗长设置为30 d或60 d时,在相同预测窗长下,最大剪应变短临异常指标的预测准确率高于面应变短临异常指标;3）通过对同一异常指标进行不同预测窗长的对比发现,面应变短临异常指标的最佳预测窗长为90 d、最大剪应变短临异常指标的最佳预测窗长为60 d（对于27个地震,二者预测结果均为：报对23个,漏报4个,预测准确率为85.19%）。     

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷二叠系风城组页岩储集层裂缝测井识别与有效性分析*

中国页岩油资源潜力巨大,裂缝的发育程度是影响页岩油产量高低的重要因素。以准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷风城组页岩储集层为研究对象,通过岩心观察、薄片鉴定、常规及成像测井方法总结归纳了研究区裂缝的发育特征,提出“常规+成像+岩心”的页岩储集层裂缝测井综合识别方法,建立了典型裂缝发育类型的测井综合识别图版。结果表明,玛湖地区天然裂缝在风三段密集发育,风一段次之,风二段中部几乎不发育。裂缝主要在长英质页岩、云质页岩和混合质页岩中发育,以高角度构造裂缝与低角度成岩裂缝为主,开启程度高,少数被碳酸盐矿物充填,走向主要为NW-SE向。基于裂缝参数定量计算结果,结合岩性及矿物组分和地应力等因素分析了储集层裂缝有效性。研究认为,脆性矿物组分含量高、走向平行于现今水平最大主应力的高角度未充填裂缝发育段对储集层有效性存在明显的控制作用,与产液资料较为吻合。此裂缝测井综合评价方法效果显著,可为页岩储集层裂缝识别与有效性评价提供方法支撑。     

Are Caribbean MPAs making progress toward their goals and objectives?

Regional efforts have increased the number and amount of marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Caribbean, yet few studies have examined how these MPAs are progressing toward their goals and objectives. Using social and ecological data from a rapid assessment of 31 MPAs and their associated human communities in the wider Caribbean, this study investigates (1) the stated social and ecological objectives of MPAs; (2) the extent to which MPAs are making progress toward their stated social and ecological objectives; and (3) tradeoffs in progress toward social and ecological objectives. Findings indicate that Caribbean MPAs have multiple objectives related to both social and ecological conditions, and that most MPAs are making at least some progress towards achieving these objectives. Those MPAs with stated objectives to promote education and serve as a model for other MPAs seem to be making good progress on these objectives, while those with the objective of reducing conflict are not. Where MPAs are not meeting their goals and objectives, planners and managers should consider reallocating human and financial resources to address deficiencies and re-evaluating existing goals and objectives. It is important to consider how existing marine protected areas are performing as efforts in the Caribbean region and elsewhere continue to promote the establishment of new MPAs.     

时间序列的趋势转折点提取算法及应用研究

针对时间序列趋势转折点的提取,提出一种基于矢量转角和极值点相结合的改进算法,并应用到地震观测资料的分析中。结合地震对应规则,对山西断陷带北部小磨流动水准XM₁-XM₂测线的地震预测效能进行评估。结果表明：1）该算法可用于时间序列趋势转折点的自动提取,提高了人工判别的工作效率,实现了转折点的定量化识别;2）从数据统计的角度考虑,该测线与200 km范围内M4.5以上地震有较好的对应关系,预测效能评估结果R=0.63（R₀=0.43）;3）2000年以后该测线的地震虚报率较高,分析认为可能与远场强震引起的应力变化有关。     

北京市人工增雨效果评估方法分析

用序列试验法、回归分析法、双比分析法和区域回归数值模拟试验方案4种效果评估方法对北京地区2001~2004年6~9月的37次火箭、高炮催化作业进行效果评估,并比较各种方法的优缺点。结果表明:①这4种方案统计结果均得到显著的增雨效果,平均增雨分别为:用序列试验的方法6.99%,用回归分析法30.68%,双比分析法20.11%,区域回归数值模拟试验方案13.37%。②误差分析表明,区域回归数值模拟试验方案产生的绝对误差仅为2.1%~2.2%,是一种较科学的评价方法。