晋1-1井水位异常与晋冀蒙交界区中强地震关系简析

通过对晋1-1井22年水位观测资料进行系统清理,对距井区约330km范围一些中强震前的水位资料进行了细致分析。结果表明:晋1-1井地震异常以短临突变异常为主,异常时间多小于80d。根据大量的震例统计结果给出了地震前兆异常定量判别指标,当曲线阶升异常幅度大于30mm或阶降大于40mm时视为震兆异常。     

破坏性地震的应急通信需求与应用初探

通过分析MS5～6、MS7～8及MS8以上地震案例造成的地面通信受损规律,剖析不同震级地震应急通信的主体通讯业务,针对目前地震行业的通信技术系统现状,探讨了地震应急通信开展方式。     

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, M_w = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, M_w = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, M_w = 8.0, and M_w = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, M_w = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.     

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

基于大地形变监测的大震预测问题思考

本文以中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础, 简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展; 进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8.1级、 2008年四川汶川8.0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果, 分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测、 并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的有效性...     

2012和2013年广东新丰江锡场2次MS4.8地震发震构造的确定*

利用广东新丰江锡场2012和2013年2次M_S4.8地震震中附近的2009年1月至2015年6月精定位小震资料,依据小震丛集发生在大震断层面及附近的原则,采用模拟退火算法和高斯-牛顿算法相结合的方法,反演得到了锡场附近2条相交断层的详细参数及地理分布。NEE向断层F1的走向为78.5°,倾角为87.7°,长度约8.2km,以右旋走滑错动为主;NW向断层F2的走向为137.3°,倾角为87.9°,长度约5.9km,以左旋走滑错动为主。用断层附近M_L3以上地震的震源机制解证明反演结果是可靠的,并由2次4.8级地震的震源机制解判断出各自的发震断层。     

大地震的18.6年周期

将全球分为15个研究区,用1900~2009年MW≥7.0地震目录,统计分析了各区大地震与月球交点运动周期的关系,得出15个研究区中有10个区,大地震存在统计意义上的18.6 a周期:活跃段为12.4 a,平静段为6.2 a;环太平洋地震带北、南、西、东4大区的大地震,不仅有这样的周期,而且其地震活跃段的时间存在一定规律.用第6个18.6 a(1991~2009年)期间的大地震,检验据前5个18.6 a(1900~1990年)地震目录所得18.6 a 周期的稳定性和实用性,发现有这种周期的地区多数的周期性是稳定的.大地震18.6 a周期的可能成因有: (1)18.6 a潮波通过调制日潮和半日潮调制大地震; (2)上地幔内流体的潮汐(地内潮)作用; (3)18.6 a潮波通过影响地球自转变化调制大地震.     

Electromagnetic Abnormity Observed at Sujiatun Seismic Station and Its Relation to Earthquake

INTRODUCTIONShort-termearthquake prediction is one of the most challenging targets in earth science today.Manyrecent reports have presented examples fromseveral regions of the world by which associationsbetween possible electromagnetic precursors and earthquakes become more and more plausible(Eftaxias ,et al .,2003) . At the same time ,electromagnetic abnormity,as one of the short-termearthquake precursors ,is recognized by more and more experts in some countries . Pre-earthquakeelectroma…     

“Site & region-specific” response spectra: a probabilistic approach

Design seismic forces depend on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values and on the shape of Response Spectrum (RS) curves dictated by Building Codes or which need to be evaluated in every particular case. The PGA values and RS curves strictly depend on earthquake magnitude and distance, as well as on the regional and local geological conditions. At present, there is no doubt that it is necessary to construct so-called “Site & Region-specific” Building Code provisions reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during the life time of the construction, as well as the variety of local ground conditions. A scheme of Uniform Hazard Response Spectra and PGA estimation considering local site response is described in this paper. The assessments of these design parameters are obtained on the basis of Uniform Hazard Fourier spectra using the conception of “dominant earthquakes”. The effect of local geology is included by means of the soil/reference site spectral ratios.     

Consistency of Magnitudes of the Largest Earthquakes of the First Half of the 20TH Century Determined on the Basis of Göttingen and Zagreb Wiechert Seismograms

The magnitudes (M _S , m _bP , m _bS ) of the largest historical earthquakes which occurred in the first half of the 20 ^th century, calculated on the basis of records of Wiechert horizontal seismographs in Göttingen (Germany) and Zagreb (Croatia), are compared with one another, as well as with the magnitudes reported in worldwide catalogues. Systematic trends are observed in the data regarding the temporal stability of magnitude estimations in Göttingen, as well as the apparent non-linearity of the instrument responsle in the case of the Wiechert seismograph in Zagreb. We were unable to clearly identify their causes – possible explanations include effects caused by the interaction of the seismometer's frame and mass, as well as local soil conditions, but nonhomogeneity of the reference catalogues cannot be ruled out. The results indicate that a careful re-examination and cross-checking of the reported magnitude figures for the earthquakes from the first half of the 20th century is required.