重庆地区重复地震识别及在数字地震台网定位评价中的应用

利用重庆数字地震台网2010年1月至2017年12月的地震波形资料和观测报告,选出5个研究区1 251个M_L≥1.5地震进行波形互相关计算,识别出358对同时被2个地震台站记录且各台波形互相关系数(cc)不小于0.8的重复地震对,涉及342个地震事件,约占地震总数的27%。将筛选出的重复地震对用于定量判断地震目录中震相拾取误差及评估台网定位精度,结果显示:重庆数字地震台网的垂直定位误差约为3 km,水平定位误差约为5 km,Pg、Sg震相拾取误差分别为0.5 s和0.7 s;其中武隆区地震定位和震相拾取精度最高,綦江区最低。     

Hydrogeochemical Precursors in Kamchatka (Russia) Related to the Strongest Earthquakes in 1988–1997

The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes up to 8.5) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the flow rate and the most common ions and gases in the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, where the capital city Petropavlovsk is located. Beginning in 1988, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 occurred in this area. These earthquakes were powerful enough to be considered as potential precursor sources in the sense that the stresses and strains building up before them might be expected to cause precursory activity. In order to reveal any possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the hydrogeochemical data collected. We considered any signal having an amplitude three times the standard deviation to be an irregularity and we defined as an anomaly the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. Then, on the basis of the worldwide past results and the time recurrence of the quoted earthquakes, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. We identified some premonitory anomalies in hydrogeochemical parameters at different wells. On the basis of these results some earthquake forecasting criteria in southern Kamchatka may be tentatively formulated     

地震立体网络多因复成学说与DZW333预测模式及其应用

综合目前各地震成因假说而提出了地震立体网络多因复成学说,该学说包括两个基本点:地震时空分布具有立体网络性;地震是显、隐性立体网络力能结构上的一个纽结。显性网络力能主要是以应力形式作用的力能,主要来源于地球自身的运转、地壳整体收缩和地幔活动因素,表现为局部性挤压和拉伸,结果往往形成断裂、断裂带、系或其他地球物理薄弱地带。隐性网络力能主要是以连续性(区域)场和瞬间冲击、扰动形式作用的力能,主要来源于太阳、月亮及太阳系各行星因素以及宇宙膨胀复原力能、宇宙高能粒子流或慧星与地球相遇引发的流星雨,表现为区域性引拉和斥推,以及瞬间冲击力、干扰力。隐性网络力对蕴震体物质和能量进行“加载”或“卸载”,结果是广泛沟通蕴震体内部及与外部的联系、调节控制蕴震体振动方式和运动方式及其能量积累和释放、促进或诱发蕴震体发震。显、隐性网络力能叠加于蕴震体,当蕴震体自由振动被叠加振动剧烈加强即蕴震体发生共振时,引起蕴震体加速运动而处于临界态,出现降维、减熵的有序特征,在临界态蕴震体受瞬间冲击或扰动,或者与环境出现解耦,而出现突变、混沌、发生地震。基于地震立体网络多因复成学说认识提出了DZW333预测模式,预测模式包括地震成因物理模型、典型地震发生机制和地震三级预测程序3部分主要内容。DZW即地震网络学说,333即由3类显性物质单元组成,即发震地壳体、球内地幔活动体、球外天体;由3部分力能因素组成,即地壳体自动力能、地幔热压体浮沉力能、星际引斥扰动力能;有3级预测程序,即时空网络预测、形态特征预测、精确信息预测。前两级预测也属于以研究对象中的共性为基础的统计预测,应确定概率值。后一级的信息预测则是以研究对象中的特性为基础的确定性预测,不涉及概率。以唐山大地震为例作了解析。     

M L Determination for Local and Regional Events Using a Sparse Network in Southwestern Germany

A method for the determination of consistent local magnitude M _L values (Richter scale, or M _WA) for earthquakes with epicentral distances ranging from 10 km through 1000 km is demonstrated. The raw data consists of nearly 1300 amplitude readings from a network of six digital seismographs in Baden–Württemberg (Southwestern Germany) during 26 months starting in 1995, later extended by another 1000 amplitude readings until 1999. Relying on most of the basics introduced by C.F. Richter a three-parameter attenuation curve (distance correction, magnitude-distance relation) for Baden–Württemberg and adjacent areas is presented. Station corrections are evaluated and the attenuation curve is calibrated with respect to other agencies for distances greater than 650 km. Reasonable parametrisations are discussed and meaningful error bars are attributed. Finally, a seventh station is incorporated by means of its station correction alone, without needing to update the attenuation curve.     

Location Accuracy of the China National Seismograph Network Estimated by Repeating Events

INTRODUCTIONDigital seismological observation in China has had a significant development in recent years,especiallysince the last five years(Liu Ruifeng,et al.,2003).For further development,it isnecessarytoassessthe monitoringcapabilityof the existingseismological network.One of theimportantassessments is the estimation of regionalizedlocation accuracy.Upto present,several approaches have been proposed to assess the location accuracy,such asthe groundtruth event approach(e.g.,Lienert,199…     

2003～2004年岷县-卓尼地震与甘肃东部地区水化异常的关系探讨

分析了2003年11月13日岷县-卓尼5．2级地震以及2004年9月7日5．0级地震前甘肃地区水氡观测点和2个气体观测点的资料变化情况，发现地震前礼县水氡、西和水氡、武山I号泉水氡、清水温泉水氡以及武山2个气体观测点的几种气体存在不同程度的异常变化。     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes from empirical Green's functions modeling

Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (M_W = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (M_W = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (M_W = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ M_W ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.