单中继星单低轨卫星的联合定轨精度分析

针对由单中继星和单低轨卫星组成的联合定轨系统,给出了系统内不同轨道卫星摄动项的选取方案和卫星间的可见性判别模型。在模拟出含有白噪声的四程测距观测数据文件的基础上,研究了测距精度和采样弧段对联合定轨中高、低轨卫星定轨精度的影响。得出如下结论:联合定轨更有利于对低轨卫星的轨道改进;同样的采样时间条件下,测距噪声越小定轨精度越高,并且采样时间越短它的影响越明显;同样的测距噪声条件下,所用资料的采样时间越长精度越高,但当测距精度很高时,TDRS达到最好定轨精度所需的采样时间相应有所缩短。并在定出轨道后进行了轨道预报,分析了轨道预报的趋势及精度。     

Mechanism of Secondary Pore Formation and Prediction of Favorable Reservoir of Paleogene in Jiyang Sag,Eastern China

Jiyang (济阳) sag is an oil rich basin,consisting of Huimin (惠民),Dongying (东营),Zhanhua (沾化),and Chezhen (车镇) depressions.The elastic rock of Paleogene has undergone early and middle diagenetic stages and now the main clastic reservoir is in the middle diagenetic stage.Primary and secondary pores are developed in Paleogene sandstone,the latter is generated from the dissolution of feldspar and calcite cement in rocks owing to the organic acid from the maturated source rock,but the materials dissolved are different in different depressions.The reservoir secondary pores of Dongying depression are generated from the dissolution of calcite cement,the ones of Zhanhua and Huimin depressions from the dissolution of feldspar,the secondary pores of Chezhen depression from the dissolution of feldspar in upper section,and the dissolution of calcite cement in the lower section of Paleogene,respectively.The secondary pores are developed in two depths and the depth goes down from west to east,from south to north in Jiyang sag.The major controlling factors for secondary pore development are maturity and location of source rock.Lastly,the favorable reservoirs are evaluated according to reservoir buried depth,sedimentation,and diagenesis.The reservoir with high quality is located in the northern and central parts in Dongying depression; there are some good reservoirs in Gndao (孤岛),Gudong (孤东),and Gunan (孤南) areas in Zhanhua depression,and the favorable reservoirs are located in the north steep slope and the south gentle slope of Chezhen depression and central uplift,south gentle slope of Huimin depression.     

饱和流体多孔介质中AVA特征分析及储层参数反演研究

AVA(Amplitude Versus Angle)技术是基于常规介质模型(均匀各向同性介质模型)发展起来的,由于忽略了储层的孔隙结构和充填流体的影响,造成AVA特征中是部分对地震波能量的吸收和衰减作用反映不足.从振幅特征方程的实际应用出发,建立起各参数与常规岩性参数之间的关系.以Gassmann方程与Biot理论为基础,推导出振幅特征方程中弹性参数与常规岩性、储层参数(如:纵波速度、横波速度、密度、孔隙度、流体参数Kf)之间的转化关系式,详细研究饱和流体多孔介质模型中的AVA特征,比较该介质模型与常规介质模型在AVA特征上的差异,并将饱和流体多孔介质AVA技术应用于川西凹陷深层须家河组储层预测,通过多波AVA储层参数的反演研究,为直接利用地震资料进行储层识别并进一步识别其流体特征提供了一种有力手段.     

四川汶川大地震的构造分析

2008年5月12日在汶川映秀(北纬31.0°,东经103.4°)发生8级大地震,而后发生万余次余震,其最大震级为6.4级.此次地震属主震-余震型地震.通过构造分析认为.汶川大地震是构造地震,主要受龙门山断裂带的强烈活动控制.它是一种板内地震,其动力来源来自印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞.而成都平原处于稳定地块中,尽管离震中较近,然受地震的影响有限,是比较安全的.     

Formation Dynamics and Quantitative Prediction of Hydrocarbons of the Superpressure System in the Dongying Sag

Based on the theory of formation dynamics of oil/gas pools, the Dongying sag can be divided into three dynamic systems regarding the accumulation of oil and gas： the superpressure closed system, the semi-closed system and the normal pressure open system. Based on the analysis of genesis of superpressure in the superpressure closed system and the rule of hydrocarbon expulsion, it is found that hydrocarbon generation is related to superpressure, which is the main driving factor of hydrocarbon migration. Micro fractures formed by superpressure are the main channels for hydrocarbon migration. There are three dynamic patterns for hydrocarbon expulsion： free water drainage, hydrocarbon accumulation and drainage through micro fissures. In the superpressure closed system, the oil-driving-water process and oil/gas accumulation were completed in lithologic traps by way of such two dynamic patterns as episodic evolution of superpressure systems and episodic pressure release of faults. The oil-bearing capacity of lithologic traps is intimately related to reservoir-forming dynamic force. Quantitative evaluation of dynamic conditions for pool formation can effectively predict the oil-bearing capability of traps.     

矿井涌水量混沌时间序列分析与预测

矿井地下水系统是个非线性系统,由于地下水系统的复杂性,很难完全确定影响矿井涌水量的因素,因此传统的矿井涌水预测表现出较大的局限性。而混沌时间序列分析能够利用单变量处理方法,分析矿井地下水系统中,由于多因素耦合作用所产生的矿井涌水量时间序列。通过对某矿区1985年9月至2005年2月矿井涌水量时间序列资料的分析,显示矿井涌水量时间序列具有混沌特征;通过对比预测值和实测值,表明预测精度高。因此,混沌时间序列分析方法用于矿井涌水量预测是可行的。     

"5.12"汶川大地震震中区映秀镇地震灾情及次生地质灾害遥感初步调查

"5.12"四川汶川8级大地震发生后,中国国土资源航空物探遥感中心立即采用"赛斯纳"高空遥感飞机,携带高清晰彩色数码相机及先进的POS系统,迅速获取了重灾区的航摄图像数据。本文以震中附近的映秀镇地区为例,简要介绍了以该高质量航摄数据为基础,采用数字滑坡技术,快速进行震后重灾区灾情及次生地质灾害遥感调查的成果。     

基于弹性薄板的地表沉陷预计模型

在分析地表沉陷基本规律的基础上,依据弹性薄板理论,建立非充分采动条件下岩层和地表沉陷预计的一类新模型,并推导出地表任意点倾斜、曲率、水平移动以及水平变形的计算公式。该模型充分考虑到地质采矿因素（煤层倾角）及煤层上方各岩层的影响,克服传统预测方法的缺陷,特别是概率积分法关于拐点反对称要求。最后,应用实例证明该方法的应用效果。     

基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报思路探讨

文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。     

UKF算法及其在GPS卫星轨道短期预报中的应用

分析了GPS卫星预报星历,在比较分析EKF和UKF优缺点的基础上,将UKF引入GPS卫星轨道预报研究中.数值模拟和结果分析表明,UKF方法预报更稳定,能有效地提高轨道预报精度和稳定性.