Determination of vertical displacements over the coastal area of Korea due to the ocean tide loading using GPS observations

This paper describes the GPS applicability for detecting the vertical displacements of ground stations caused by ocean tide loading effects. An experiment was carried out using 12 permanent GPS stations located in the coastal area of Korea using data in the period 1 July until 26 August 2003. The relative height differences were calculated from hourly DGPS data processing based on the carrier-phase observation. The power spectra of the M₂ and N₂ constituents of ocean tide loading were derived using the CLEAN algorithm. The differential vertical displacements generated by the ocean tide loading effect are typically 3–25 mm in coastal area of the Korea. We compared the results from GPS with those of the ocean tide models, NAO.99Jb regional model and GOT00.2, FES99 global models. The M₂ (N₂) amplitude differences of vertical displacements between GPS and GOT00.2 is 1.22 ± 3.61 mm (1.01 ± 1.48 mm), and that of the M₂ (N₂) amplitude difference between GPS and FES99 is 0.04 ± 4.64 mm (0.64 ± 1.75 mm), whereas the M₂ (N₂) amplitude difference between GPS and NAO.99Jb are 0.05 ± 1.03 mm (0.86 ± 1.18 mm). The highest vertical displacements at the PALM station are found for 24.5 ± 0.7 mm from GPS observation, and 22.9 mm from the regional model NAO.99Jb and 13.17 and 10.00 mm from the global models GOT00.2 and FES99, respectively. These values show that the vertical displacements derived from GPS are in good agreement with those of the regional model NAO.99Jb around Korea, more than with the global models. This result indicated that GPS is an effective tool to measure the vertical displacement caused by the ocean tide loading effect in the coastal area, and we need to use the NAO.99Jb ocean tide model rather than the global ocean tide models in and around the Korean peninsula for position determination with permanent GPS installations. This work demonstrates that vertical displacement caused by the M₂ and N₂ constituents of ocean tide loading can be measured by carrier-phase DGPS.     

Influence of the Kunlun Mountain Ms8.1 Earthquake on Horizontal Crustal Deformation in the Sichuan and Yunnan Area

In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999～2001～2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999～2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

Very low-grade metamorphic study in the pre-Late Cretaceous terranes of New Caledonia (southwest Pacific Ocean)

Abstract   Pre-Late Cretaceous terranes from the central part of New Caledonia have been metamorphosed under very low-grade conditions by two high-pressure/low-temperature events. The present study investigates the metamorphic patterns with phyllosilicate crystallinities, electron microprobe analyses and petrography. The first metamorphic event is of Late Jurassic age and is characterized by very low (anchizone) to low-grade (epizone) conditions with a decrease of the illite Kübler Index (KI) and the chlorite Árkai Index (ÁI) values from northeast to southwest. This trend is also confirmed by chlorite thermometry. In the south of the area, un-metamorphosed sediments (diagenetic KI values) are observed in the Senonian 'formation à charbons', post-dating the metamorphism in this region. The second metamorphism is an Eocene high-pressure event, which overprints the Late Jurassic metamorphism in the northern part of the studied area. In this zone, the pattern of KI and ÁI indicates another gradient with increasing metamorphic conditions from southwest to northeast. Temperatures calculated by chlorite thermometry also indicate an evolution from southwest to northeast with slight increase of temperature from 298 ± 8°C to 327 ± 16°C. In both metamorphic zones, the K-white mica b cell dimension calculated on micas analyzed at electron microprobe are in good agreement with high-pressure/low-temperature metamorphic conditions (b₀ > 9.04 Å). A combination of chlorite thermometry and K-white mica b cell dimension allows estimation of a minimum pressure of 1.3 GPa in the Eocene zone (in excellent agreement with the 1.5 GPa registered in the northern part of New Caledonia) and a minimum of 1.1 GPa in the Late Jurassic metamorphic part.     

Simulated effect of a forest road on near‐surface hydrologic response: redux

In the work reported here the comprehensive physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) was employed to conduct both three‐ and two‐dimensional (3D and 2D) hydrologic‐response simulations for the small upland catchment known as C3 (located within the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon). Results from the 3D simulations for the steep unchannelled C3 (i) identify subsurface stormflow as the dominant hydrologic‐response mechanism and (ii) show the effect of the down‐gradient forest road on both the surface and subsurface flow systems. Comparison of the 3D results with the 2D results clearly illustrates the importance of convergent subsurface flow (e.g. greater pore‐water pressures in the hollow of the catchment for the 3D scenario). A simple infinite‐slope model, driven by subsurface pore‐water pressures generated from the 3D and 2D hydrologic‐response simulations, was employed to estimate slope stability along the long‐profile of the C3 hollow axis. As expected, the likelihood of slope failure is underestimated for the lower pore pressures from the 2D hydrologic‐response simulation compared, in a relative sense, to the higher pore pressures from the 3D hydrologic response simulation. The effort reported herein provides a firm quantitative foundation for generalizing the effects that forest roads can have on near‐surface hydrologic response and slope stability at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy demands for seismic design against low‐cycle fatigue

A seismic design procedure that does not take into account the maximum and cumulative plastic deformation demands that a structure is likely to undergo during severe ground motion could lead to unsatisfactory performance. In spite of this, current design procedures do not take into account explicitly the effect of low‐cycle fatigue. Based on the high correlation that exists between the strength reduction factor and the energy demand in earthquake‐resistant structures, simple procedures can be formulated to estimate the cumulative plastic deformation demands for design purposes. Several issues should be addressed during the use of plastic energy within a practical performance‐based seismic design methodology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of single‐run pushover analysis techniques for seismic assessment of bridges

Traditional pushover analysis is performed subjecting the structure to monotonically increasing lateral forces with invariant distribution until a target displacement is reached; both the force distribution and target displacement are hence based on the assumption that the response is controlled by a fundamental mode, that remains unchanged throughout. However, such invariant force distributions cannot account for the redistribution of inertia forces caused by structural yielding and the associated changes in the vibration properties, including the increase of higher‐mode participation. In order to overcome such drawbacks, but still keep the simplicity of using single‐run pushover analysis, as opposed to multiple‐analyses schemes, adaptive pushover techniques have recently been proposed. In order to investigate the effectiveness of such new pushover schemes in assessing bridges subjected to seismic action, so far object of only limited scrutiny, an analytical parametric study, conducted on a suite of continuous multi‐span bridges, is carried out. The study seems to show that, with respect to conventional pushover methods, these novel single‐run approaches can lead to the attainment of improved predictions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of simple approaches in mitigating residual deformations in buildings

Developments in performance‐based seismic design and assessment approaches have emphasized the importance of considering residual deformations. Recent investigations have also led to a proposed direct displacement‐based design (DDBD) approach which includes an explicit consideration of the expected residual deformations as an integral part of the design process. Having estimated the expected residual deformations in a structure, engineers are faced with the problem of reducing them to meet the targeted performance levels under pre‐defined seismic hazard levels. Previous studies have identified the post‐yield stiffness as a primary factor influencing the magnitude of residual deformations in single degree of freedom and multiple degree of freedom structures. In this paper, a series of simple approaches to increase the post‐yield stiffness of traditional framed and braced systems for the purpose of reducing residual deformations are investigated. These methods do not utilize recentring post‐tensioned technology. This contribution addresses the feasibility of altering the lateral post‐yield stiffness of structural systems by: (i) using different reinforcement materials with beneficial features in their stress–strain behaviour; (ii) re‐designing the section geometry and properties of primary seismic‐resisting elements; and (iii) introducing a secondary elastic frame to act in parallel with the primary system. The efficiency of each of these techniques is investigated through monotonic and cyclic moment‐curvature and non‐linear time‐history analyses. Of these approaches the design and introduction of an elastic secondary system was found to be most effective and consistent in reducing residual deformations. A simplified design approach for achieving the desired increase of a system's post‐yield stiffness is also presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.