沉积学的新理论——评乔秀夫等著《软沉积物变形构造》一书

正2017年9月,地质出版社出版了一本前所未有的新书《软沉积物变形构造》,它像一棵耀眼的流星划破寂静的夜空落在地球上——落在地质学书库的海洋里。以往的沉积学都是研究静力(重力)沉积记录的科学,乔秀夫研究员等这本书恰恰相反,它是研究动力(地震力)沉积记录的科学,正像月球科学家过去的研究只限于月球的正面,现在开始研究月球的背面,点点滴滴的新信息都让人振     

开敞式潮滩-潮沟系统发育演变动力机制——Ⅲ.海平面上升影响

为研究海平面上升对潮滩-潮沟系统的影响,以江苏中部粉砂淤泥质海岸为原型,建立变态物理模型,模拟研究在不同海平面潮汐过程作用下的潮沟发育和演变过程,分析了潮滩淹没历时、排水密度、潮沟断面形态等特征参数变化规律。研究表明:潮沟在发育初期伸长速率高于拓宽速率,最终趋于动态平衡;海平面上升后,潮滩淹没历时增加,露滩时间缩短,归槽水对潮沟底床的塑造作用减弱;平均归槽水流长度和Horton排水长度均随海平面上升呈现出减小趋势,潮沟的排水能力增强;潮沟断面宽深比服从对数正态分布,随着海平面上升,潮沟断面面积和宽深比均呈现出增大趋势,宽深比分布范围变广。     

确定砂土动剪切模量和阻尼比的方法对比

确定土体动剪切模量的常用方法有规范法、Kumar法和自相关函数法,确定相应阻尼比的方法有规范法、Das and Luo法、Kokusho法、Kumar法和互相关函数法,为了分析不同方法所产生差异,实现定量化对比分析,笔者以福建标准砂（粒径为0.5~1.0 mm）为研究对象,采用不排水的应力控制动三轴试验,探讨不同的确定土体动剪切模量和阻尼比方法的差异性,并给出了不同土体条件建议选用的方法。结果表明：1）3种方法确定动剪切模量的结果有一定的差异,随剪应变的增大结果的差异逐渐增大,有效围压对结果的差异性有所影响,当剪应变为4×10^-3,有效围压为100 kPa时,3种方法差异显著,相对误差最大接近20%;2）而5种方法确定阻尼比的结果差异显著,随着剪应变的增大,5种方法确定的阻尼比相对误差大体上均在迅速减小,只有规范法在有效围压为100 kPa时,其相对误差有较小的增大趋势;5种方法中,Kumar法确定的阻尼比最接近平均阻尼比,互相关函数法远高于平均阻尼比,Das and Luo法和Kokusho法确定的阻尼比基本一致但低于平均阻尼比。建议以后的工程应用中,加载方式为应力控制时,可采用自相关函数法确定动剪切模量,采用Kumar法确定阻尼比,二者确定的动剪切模量和阻尼比均最接近平均值。     

西昌市1989—2018年林地草地湿地动态变化特征分析

遥感技术已被广泛应用于生态环境调查与研究。为获取西昌市近30 a生态环境演化趋势,利用1989年、2000年、2010年的专题绘图仪(Thematic Mapper,TM)遥感影像和2018年的陆地成像仪(Operational Land Imager,OLI)遥感影像,通过图像处理、目视解译和野外验证等方法,获得了西昌市1989—2018年的土地利用/覆盖数据,并对林地、草地和湿地的动态变化特征进行了研究。结果表明: 1989—2018年,西昌市林地、湿地和草地面积持续增加,生态环境持续向好; 林地主要分布于安宁河谷和邛海盆地四周山地,在牦牛山、螺髻山一带形成主要林区; 草地主要呈星岛状分布于牦牛山、螺髻山一带林地之间; 湿地以河流湿地与湖泊湿地为主,主要沿安宁河及邛海分布。但仍存在一些问题: 森林存在针叶化现象较普遍、树种单一等问题,需要重点加强林区火灾防范; 草地多数呈零星片状分布,不具有完整的系统结构和良好的功能,多数草地承载力和生产力较低,不宜大规模开发利用,应通过封山育林促使其向森林转化; 湿地分布也比较局限,需要着力予以保护。研究成果可为西昌市生态保护修复措施的制定及经济社会可持续发展提供科学依据。     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

2017年6月一次华南沿海强降水的对流性特征及热动力机制研究

在华南北部或长江流域有锋面雨带活动时,华南沿海常常会出现对流性强降水,突发性很强,给预报造成很大的困惑。文章采用多种观测资料、ERA-Interim 0.125°×0.125°逐6 h再分析资料,对2017年6月15～16日华南北部的锋面雨带及沿海强降雨过程开展分析,对比了二者降水特征与环境条件,重点探讨了该次过程华南沿海强降雨的对流触发与维持,揭示了一种由边界层风切变强迫造成涡度持续发展的动力效应。结果表明:（1）锋面雨带与华南沿海强降雨在降水特征上有显著差异,并各有特点。锋面雨带以大尺度层状云降水和弱对流性降水为主,降水强度东段弱西段强。沿海强降雨以对流性降水为主,局地性强、落区集中、强降雨持续时间长、夜发性明显。（2）水汽方程诊断发现沿海强降雨在边界层水平水汽平流项、垂直水汽输送项比锋面雨带东段具有更大量级,大气层结反映出更深厚的暖层、湿层与对流不稳定,是二者降水强度及性质差异的主要原因。（3）莲花山、峨眉嶂造成气流侧向摩擦与正面阻挡促使漯河河谷内垂直涡度发展,暖湿空气堆积上升并达到自由对流高度,触发了华南沿海最初的降水。夜间建立的西南风急流使边界层垂直风速切变增强,水平涡度倾斜部分转化为垂直涡度发展,与风速水平切变造成的垂直涡度叠加,是强降雨持续时间长的动力机制。海陆边界摩擦差异造成水平、垂直两个方向的风切变增强,共同强迫垂直涡度发展是此次强降雨过程对流维持的动力效应。（4）方程诊断表明华南沿海强降雨由对流潜热释放造成的垂直上升速度占总垂直上升速度的39%～75%,持续、稳定的对流潜热释放是强降雨持续时间长的热力驱动因素。     

GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。     

EFFECT OF SLAB FLEXIBILITY ON INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO CIRCULAR FOUNDATIONS

The paper is aimed at investigating the effect of foundation rigidity on dynamic stiffness for two circular foundations on a viscoelastic medium. To generate the dynamic stiffness, a substructure technique is employed. For the substructure of a viscoelastic medium, the solution for wave motion reported in Reference 11 is used. For the substructures of two flexible foundations, classical plate theory with the inertial force neglected is employed to find the displacement fields of the foundation plates subjected to the interaction stresses. Then, the continuity condition for all the substructures is imposed implicitly by using the variational principle; then with the help of the reciprocal theorem the dynamic stiffness for the two flexible foundations can be obtained. For the numerical study, the boundary condition at the rims of both foundation plates is assumed to be a hinge connection to superstructures. Some numerical investigations are performed and the effect of foundation rigidity on dynamic stiffness is examined. Some discussions and conclusions are also made.     

THE THEORY OF RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH A SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, the theory of response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. The theory of response analysis of an sdf system to both stationary and non-stationary fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is established. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory, and the models of stationary filtered white noise and non-stationary filtered white noise fuzzy stochastic processes of the earthquake ground motion are set up. Methods of analysis for fuzzy random seismic response of sdf systems are put forward using the principles of response analysis of an sdf fuzzy random dynamic system.     

DYNAMIC CROSS-INTERACTION BETWEEN FLEXIBLE SURFACE FOOTINGS BY COMBINED BEM AND FEM

A combined boundary and finite element method is developed and applied to study the dynamic behaviour of a system of flexible surface footings of arbitrary shape bearing on an elastic half-space. The proposed method employs the frequency domain Green's function for the surface of the elastic half-space while a layered plate model is used for the flexible footing. Both the footing and the surface of the half-space are discretized by 8-noded quadratical isoparametric elements, and the meshes are identical. Thus, the compatibility of displacements and equilibrium of forces between the footing and the half-space are fully satisfied. This model provides a better approximation of the stress concentration at edges of relatively rigid footings. Numerical examples demonstrating the effects due to the excitation frequency, the relative rigidity and the distance between footings on the interaction between two square footings are presented. The external forces can be either harmonic or transient.