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21.
用L-曲线法确定半参数模型中的平滑因子 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
提出了一种新的方法——L-曲线法确定平滑因子。通过确定合适的平滑因子,更好地控制了残差部分V^TPV与光滑度部分S^TRS之间的平衡,得到了更准确的参数估值。通过算例,将基于L-曲线法确定平滑因子的半参数模型解算方法和其他方法进行了比较。结果表明,用L-曲线法确定平滑因子后,提高了半参数模型计算结果的精度,可以更好地将观测值中的系统误差分离出来。 相似文献
22.
Correcting the Smoothing Effect of Ordinary Kriging Estimates 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Jorge Kazuo Yamamoto 《Mathematical Geology》2005,37(1):69-94
The smoothing effect of ordinary kriging is a well-known dangerous effect associated with this estimation technique. Consequently kriging estimates do not reproduce both histogram and semivariogram model of sample data. A four-step procedure for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates is shown to be efficient for the reproduction of histogram and semivariogram without loss of local accuracy. Furthermore, this procedure provides a unique map sharing both local and global accuracies. Ordinary kriging with a proper correction for smoothing effect can be revitalized as a reliable estimation method that allows a better use of the available information. 相似文献
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A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions
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Francesc Gallart Maria Roig‐Planasdemunt Michael K. Stewart Pilar Llorens Uwe Morgenstern Willibald Stichler Laurent Pfister Jérôme Latron 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4741-4760
The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
25.
The exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth: a novel method for exploring its effect on water flow paths and transit time distribution
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The strong vertical gradient in soil and subsoil saturated hydraulic conductivity is characteristic feature of the hydrology of catchments. Despite the potential importance of these strong gradients, they have proven difficult to model using robust physically based schemes. This has hampered the testing of hypotheses about the implications of such vertical gradients for subsurface flow paths, residence times and transit time distribution. Here we present a general semi‐analytical solution for the simulation of 2D steady‐state saturated‐unsaturated flow in hillslopes with saturated hydraulic conductivity that declines exponentially with depth. The grid‐free solution satisfies mass balance exactly over the entire saturated and unsaturated zones. The new method provides continuous solutions for head, flow and velocity in both saturated and unsaturated zones without any interpolation process as is common in discrete numerical schemes. This solution efficiently generates flow pathlines and transit time distributions in hillslopes with the assumption of depth‐varying saturated hydraulic conductivity. The model outputs reveal the pronounced effect that changing the strength of the exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity has on the flow pathlines, residence time and transit time distribution. This new steady‐state model may be useful to others for posing hypotheses about how different depth functions for hydraulic conductivity influence catchment hydrological response. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
26.
Drying of deformable porous media results in their shrinkage, and it may cause cracking provided that shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints. This is the motivation to develop a thermodynamics‐based microporoelasticity model for the assessment of cracking risk in partially saturated porous geomaterials. The study refers to 3D representative volume elements of porous media, including a two‐scale double‐porosity material with a pore network comprising (at the mesoscale) 3D mesocracks in the form of oblate spheroids, and (at the microscale) spherical micropores of different sizes. Surface tensions prevailing in all interfaces between solid, liquid, and gaseous matters are taken into account. To establish a thermodynamics‐based crack propagation criterion for a two‐scale double‐porosity material, the potential energy of the solid is derived, accounting—in particular—for mesocrack geometry changes (main original contribution) and for effective micropore pressures, which depend (due to surface tensions) on the pore radius. Differentiating the potential energy with respect to crack density parameter yields the thermodynamical driving force for crack propagation, which is shown to be governed by an effective macrostrain. It is found that drying‐related stresses in partially saturated mesocracks reduce the cracking risk. The drying‐related effective underpressures in spherical micropores, in turn, result in a tensile eigenstress of the matrix in which the mesocracks are embedded. This way, micropores increase the mesocracking risk. Model application to the assessment of cracking risk during drying of argillite is the topic of the companion paper (Part II). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
27.
AEKF在星敏感器低频误差补偿中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
高分辨率对地观测卫星需要精确的姿态信息来满足后续对地定位等工作,因此姿态确定精度十分重要。星敏感器的低频误差是影响卫星姿态确定精度的重要因素之一,主要是由空间周期性的热环境变化引起的。为进一步提高卫星姿态确定精度,对星敏感器的低频误差产生机理即星敏感器主光轴做周期性扰动进行了分析,设计了星敏感器低频误差补偿方案,建立了考虑星敏感器低频误差在内的组合定姿模型,利用拓维卡尔曼滤波(AEKF)对低频误差进行补偿,并引入RTS平滑滤波进一步提高姿态确定精度。仿真实验表明,设计的星敏感器低频误差补偿方案能有效对其进行补偿,提高卫星姿态确定精度。 相似文献
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压水试验水压式栓塞较其他类型栓塞可靠、灵活,但一直存在试验结束后排水泄压难题,使该类型栓塞使用局限于浅孔及地下水位高的钻孔。本文对该问题进行了研究,提出了解决方案,设计了新型水压式栓塞结构。解决了一直以来水压式栓塞的排水泄压难题,突破了试验孔深限制,使水压式栓塞能得到广泛应用。介绍了该新型水压式栓塞的结构和工作原理以及工程应用效果。 相似文献
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