洪涝统计方法探讨

利用深圳气象台1953--2005年的雨量资料，对洪涝的两种统计方法进行了对比分析，并引出了更为科学和合理的“任意连续10d／20d雨量统计洪涝的方法”。通过检验，该方法能够较准确地反映洪涝灾害的实际情况。     

中国西南和华南地区秋季干旱变化规律

利用我国西南和华南地区131个测站1961~2010年近50 a降水和NECP资料,采用线性趋势分析、合成分析、功率谱分析等方法,基于秋季降水距平百分率,研究分析了近50 a我国西南和华南地区各级别秋旱的空间分布及时间变化特征,并初步讨论了各级别干旱形成的原因。结果表明：秋季干旱集中在川东、贵州中东部—华南,中旱、重旱、特旱主要出现在华南;近50 a来秋旱有显著增多的趋势,主要体现在轻旱的增多,而重旱和特旱趋势不明显。1960年代秋旱相对较多,1970年代初至1980年代后期秋旱较少,此后秋旱频繁,其中2002年以后秋旱突变性增多,干旱范围扩大的同时,其强度也在增强;秋旱频率具有显著的2.2 a周期,其中重旱有显著的12 a周期,特旱有显著的2.7 a周期;秋旱频率高的地方连旱频率也高,连旱高频区在川东—渝北、黔中—华南,连续5 a以上的秋旱较少,个别地方可达到6 a。700 h Pa上,西太平洋副热带高压、印缅槽、高原东部槽等是影响西南、华南地区秋季干湿的主要环流因子。     

CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区干旱变化模拟能力评估

利用东亚地区1961～2005年高分辨率（0．5°×0．5°）降水格点数据和参加CMIP5的42个全球气候模式数值模拟结果,通过对简单降水强度指数（降水距平百分率）的计算,对比分析了观测和多模式集合的中国地区干旱面积、干旱频率的时空分布以及干旱分布型的变化,评估了全球气候模式的模拟能力。结果表明：多个全球气候模式的集合结果对中国区域的干旱变化特征有一定的模拟能力,能较好地模拟出中国年平均干旱指数的时间变化趋势,但模拟的干旱强度偏弱;多模式集合模拟的严重干旱面积与观测值的变化趋势基本一致,与观测相比,模拟的长江以南干旱强度偏强,西北干旱强度偏弱;通过EOF的分析表明,多模式集合可以较好地模拟出西北与长江以南呈反位相及我国东部地区的“旱-涝-旱”或“涝-旱-涝”的分布型。     

1961-2010年河北省太阳直接辐射时空分布特征研究

利用1961-2010年河北省周边7个太阳辐射观测站的资料,拟合得出相对精确的河北省太阳直接辐射经验公式,分析了河北省太阳直接辐射时空变化特征。结果表明：河北省近50 a来太阳直接辐射年总量总体呈明显的下降趋势。其中,下降幅度相对较大的石家庄为25%,下降幅度相对较小的唐山为11%。河北省水平面太阳直接辐射年总量近50 a平均值空间差异较大,<2540MJ·m^-2 主要分布在邢台南部,>3510MJ·m^-2 主要分布在张家口西北部,大部分地区介于2540-3300MJ·m^-2 。河北省太阳能资源开发利用潜力比较大的区域主要在张家口的坝上地区。     

Effects of meteorological and hydrogeological factors on gross recharge percentage at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate

A thorough understanding of rainfall recharge processes and their controlling factors is essential for management of groundwater systems. This study investigates the effects of various meteorological and hydrogeological factors on the gross recharge percentages, the rainfall–recharge relationships and the recharge threshold values for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate. Among the meteorological factors investigated, rainfall intensity was found to have the most significant impact on the gross recharge rate. The effects of potential evaporation rate, relative humidity and air temperature on the gross recharge percentage were significant when the vadose zone thickness is larger than 2·5 m. The recharge threshold values were found to depend strongly on the vadose zone thickness. The rainfall–recharge relationships could generally be well defined by a normal–log relationship. The rainfall–recharge relationships derived here are applicable to yield estimates of gross recharge percentages for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate, using rainfall intensity and vadose zone thickness as input variables. In this study, a theory was developed and validated to provide physical explanations for the observations, based on the residence time of the percolated rainwater within the vadose zone. Among the soil hydraulic parameters tested, porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity were found to have the most pronounced effects on the gross recharge percentage. Utilizing the sensitivity results and the theory derived, an approach was developed for extending the application of the derived rainfall–recharge relationships to other sand textures. The approach was found to be capable of producing rough and fast estimations of gross recharge percentage for other sand textures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

根据泥石流沉积物计算泥石流容重的方法研究

泥石流的容重是泥石流的最重要的参数之一,用简单易行的方法获得泥石流的容重因泥石流灾害的评估和泥石流的防治的需要显得日益重要。分析了泥石流的组成颗粒中3个分别代表粗颗粒,细颗粒和粘粒颗粒的颗粒粒径,即2 mm、0.05 mm和0.005 mm,及它们的百分含量与泥石流容重的关系。在对泥石流的组成颗粒的研究中发现泥石流中的粗颗粒,细颗粒和粘粒颗粒的百分含量与泥石流容重都有一定的关系,但因地区的差异这种关系不是唯一的。粘性泥石流中的粘粒含量与物源区的粘粒含量相当,稀性泥石流的粘粒含量远大于物源区的粘粒含量。用粗颗粒和细颗粒百分含量计算的泥石流的容重与泥石流观测样和沉积样对比有较好的一致性。根据泥石流沉积物计算的泥石流容重应服从根据沉积物的特征判断的泥石流类型和框定的泥石流容重范围。     

Influence of cohesion on California bearing ratio of clay-gravel mixtures

An understanding of the behavior of cohesive sediment is required to solve various engineering problems such as scour around bridge elements, mitigation of soil erosion, pavement design, river bed degradation,stable channel design. Pavement foundation designers principally use the California bearing ratio(CBR)to describe the subgrade and subbase materials and their strength. Several laboratory experiments were done to study the variation in the CBR of cohesive mixtures comprised of clay-gravel m...     

Seismic inversion modeling method for faulted basins:a case study of Liaohe Beach in Bijialing region

There is not much correlation between sand content and P-wave impedance in faulted basins , and the prediction results cannot be guaranteed .Due to sedimentary facies control , there is inconsistency between sand content and low frequency trend of P-wave impedance , causing problems for seismic inversion modeling , which directly affects final seismic inversion results .The acoustic impedance increases with burial depth .When the same layers of sand and shale formation endure different compaction , the acoustic impedance values will be dif-ferent .Therefore , The seismic inversion modeling of faulted basin is different from that of conventional basins . The authors built an inversion model using uncompact sandstone percentage , directly compensating for the low frequency trend of the inversion model .In addition, the model's intermediate frequency is similar to P-wave im-pedance , ensuring that the inversion results are converged correctly .The final results of the inversion can be used directly as sandstone percentage .The aforementioned method was applied to Liaohe Beach in the Bijialing region and obtained optimistic lithology inversion effects:the results were correlated well with the depositional facies map and with lithology in the well borehole .The inversion results can be used to define the sand body horizontally and can separate sand bodies vertically , which is very difficult on conventional seismic section . Therefore the inversion results played an important role in reservoir prediction .     

Source speciation resolving hydrochemical complexity of coastal aquifers

There is a growing concern of seawater intrusion to freshwater aquifers due to groundwater overexploitation in the eastern coastal belt of Southern India. The problem becomes complex in the regions where industrial effluents are also contaminating the freshwater aquifers. In order to understand the hydrochemical complexity of the system, topographic elevation, static water level measurements, major ion chemistry, ionic cross plots, water type contours and factor analysis were applied for 144 groundwater samples of shallow and deep sources from Quaternary and Tertiary coastal aquifers, located within the industrial zone of 25 km² area near Cuddalore, Southern India. The ionic cross plots indicates dissolution of halite minerals from marine sources and seawater mixing into inland aquifers up to the level of 9.3%. The factor analysis explains three significant factors totaling 86.3% of cumulative sample variance which includes varying contribution from marine, industrial effluent and freshwater sources.     

洪涝异常与云南楚雄地区强震的相关分析

利用云南省123个气象台站1960年以来的降雨量资料,使用年降雨量距平百分率方法,分析楚雄强震与降雨量的关系,结果发现：年降雨量距平百分率≥0.25的台站数大于8,次年云南地区皆有Ms≥6.0地震,也是楚雄地区发生6级强震背景条件;楚雄地区强震前表现涝异常,即该区域强震具有涝—震特征.