日本自然灾害现状与新态势

日本是一个多灾且严重的国家,依据最新资料,分析了日本自然灾害的现状特征;自然灾害影响社会经济发展,而社会经济变化可能成为新的致灾因素并形成新的灾害形式。本文特别对城市化、过疏化、高龄化和网络化与灾害进行了论述;最后论述了“自助”“共助”和“公助”三位一体的防灾基本对策的内容。这些对正处于高速经济发展和城市化的我国来说,具有重要的借鉴作用。     

Slope instability of San Miniato hill (Florence, Italy): possible deformation patterns

The hill of San Miniato (Florence, Italy) has been repeatedly identified in the past as the site of a slow moving, intermittent landslide. Possible hypotheses regarding the mechanisms responsible for past movements and for cracks and fissures present today are formulated based on the comparison of historical information and processed monitoring data. Although it is not possible to completely exclude a large inactive landslide that involves the entire northern slope, it seems more probable that the slide, if it does exist, is no longer active and that present-day damage is due to separate shallow movements concentrated in man-made deposits. This hypothesis can only be verified with a temporal extension of the monitoring activities, necessary in any case for planning possible safeguarding measures for the cultural heritage in the area.     

Real Time Analysis and Forecasting of Strata Caving Behaviour during Longwall Operations

Summary. Discontinuous manual observations and irregular caving characteristics of roof rocks often lead to improper decisions resulting in accidents and production loss. Hence, systematic monitoring of the hanging roof behind the chock shields is necessary for safe and productive mining operations. A real-time application was successfully implemented in an Indian mine for forecasting of hanging roof behaviour to enhance safety and productivity. This paper reports the functioning of real-time TWAP (time weighted average pressure) analysis in the forecasting of hanging roof behaviour in real time.     

The Alcamayo and Cedrobamba catastrophic debris flow (January, March and April 2004) in Machupicchu area—Peru

A debris flow originating from the Alcamayo River on 10th April 2004 destroyed a part of the town of Aguas Calientes, resulting in 11 victims, and with serious affects to the tourist flow to the Machupicchu inka citadel. On the same day, as well as in January and March 2004, other similar phenomena occurred on the Cedrobamba and Leonchayoq Rivers, affecting the railway and an electrical tower, and disrupting the train service.     

Spatial assessment and redesign of a groundwater quality monitoring network using entropy theory, Gaza Strip, Palestine

Using entropy theory, a methodology was developed for the evaluation and redesign of groundwater quality monitoring wells in the Gaza Strip in Palestine. Essential to the methodology is the development of a Transinformation Model (TM) which yields the amount of information transfer and the dependency between the wells as a function of distance. The TM parameters, such as the minimum transinformation and the range, were employed for evaluating the network which revealed that most of the distances between wells were less than the range. It also indicated that a high percentage of redundant information existed in the network. Therefore, the network was reduced by superimposing a square pattern over the monitored area and selecting one well per square block in a stratified pattern. The methodology was tested using the chloride data collected from 1972–2000 from 417 groundwater quality monitoring wells in the Gaza Strip. The number of the groundwater quality monitoring wells in the Gaza Strip was reduced by 53%, while there was 26% redundant information based on the minimum existing distance between wells. This methodology is meant to help monitor the groundwater quality (salinity) in the Gaza Strip.     

Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.     

G856磁力仪在地磁台站建设中的应用与实践方法

本文通过泉州地磁台重建工程中的工作实践,阐述了应用G856磁力仪在建筑材料磁性检测、施工过程中磁性跟踪监测的实践方法。     

地震地质灾害空间预警评估定量化方法研究初探

建立“发育度”、“潜势度”、“危险度”、“危害度”等概念来描述地震地质灾害各影响因子、要素及可能的灾害危害程度,进而建立构成地震地质灾害层次分析的概念体系及地震地质灾害空间预警评估模型,将定性评估转化为定量评估进行初步研究。     

多时相组合分类法在土地利用动态监测中的应用

介绍了土地利用遥感动态监测的基本概念，简述了遥感土地利用变化信息提取等遥感监测方法．重点探讨了多时相组合分类方法的相关技术。对广西2002年和2003年两个时相的MODIS数据．采用多时相直接分类法对土地利用变化状况进行了遥感动态监测。对不同方式波段组合的试验表明。经过差值、比值处理的波段组合具有较差的试验效果(总体精度只有30％～40％)，而经过PCA变换的波段组合则具有相对较好的试验效果(总体精度超过70％)。     

煤矿水害多源信息预测方法研究

基于MAPGIS平台,用Visual C＋＋对其进行二次开发,研制了煤矿水害多源信息预测系统.通过对地震、电法、水文地质等多源数据进行处理后,在MAPGIS系统下进行成图、配准和空间定量分析,建立了预测模型.用该系统对煤矿实际资料进行了处理,结果表明其预测结果较传统方法更为准确.